Mid-Season Report Cards - The Pitchers

Hitters yesterday, pitchers today. As with the hitters the pitchers are graded against their expectations, not against the overall.

Josh Beckett – 11-3, 3.35 – A

Interesting Stat – Hitters leading off innings have a .208 OBP against him

The start wasn’t pretty leading one blogger to ask if Beckett was injured. Since the calendar turned to May it’s been all peaches and cream. He is throwing strikes and he has had both the fastball and curveball working well. Health will be the issue with Beckett but when he’s right he’s as good as they come.

Jon Lester – 8-6, 3.87 – B

Interesting Stat – Base runners 10 for 10 when stealing on non-pickoffs against him

Like Beckett, heck like the entire rotation, Lester did not get off to a good start. In his case I felt it was obviously not going to be an issue as so much of it was based on a BABIP that was sure to come down. What is fascinating about his performance is the way he is striking people out, 10.3/9IP, something only ten men have done in the 2000s.

Tim Wakefield – 11-3, 4.31 – B

Interesting Stat – .525 OPS in 1st inning, Career .661 OPS in 1st inning

I wonder if Wake is doing something different in his pregame to improve his start? For all the hullabaloo this season isn’t really any different from 2003-2008 for Wake. Virtually every stat he has would fit right in any of those years. Not to take anything away from him, he’s been a key contributor for many years and this year is no different. I’m sure there is a metric for it but it seems he has been more consistent this year than in years’ past. The biggest benefit so far has been his health and hopefully that will continue into the 2nd half.

Brad Penny – 6-3, 4.71 – B

Interesting Stat – Nine Quality Starts

After a couple of real ugly starts to open the season Penny has become a hard throwing version of Wakefield. Nothing brilliant but every start since getting spanked in Cleveland he has gone at least five innings in all 13 starts allowing three or fewer runs eleven times. That he has taken the ball every fifth day is what bumps this up to a "B" for me.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 1-5, 8.23 – F

Interesting Stat – .443 BABIP

From the sounds of things the Sox have sent him to Ft. Myers with the plan to basically start over. I’ll be surprised if he makes any kind of impact in 2009. I have a hard time believing he wasn’t dealing with a pretty significant injury right from the get-go.

John Smoltz – 1-2, 5.40 – C

Interesting Stat – 4.25K:BB ratio

So far he’s been about what could have been realistically expected and in my opinion a bit better. He’s really had two bad innings accounting for eight of his twelve runs allowed and that K/BB ratio is very good. I am fairly optimistic about his chances to be very good in the second half.

Jonathan Papelbon – 1-1, 1.85 – C

Interesting Stat – 64% Strike Percentage

It is indisputable that Jonathan Papelbon has not been the same pitcher in 2009 that he was from 2005-2008. He certainly has not been bad but the indicators are less than positive. The Sox need the old version of Papelbon or there are going to be some painful blown saves at inopportune times.

Ramon Ramirez – 5-3, 2.33 – A

Interesting Stat – LHB hitting .172 against him

Ramirez has really been a stalwart performer so far for Terry Francona. His versatility has been clutch as he leads the Sox bullpen (tied actually with Masterson) with nine appearances of more than one inning and has served in just about every role entering games in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th inning at different times this year.

Hideki Okajima – 3-0, 3.32 – C

Interesting Stat – Best on team 12% inherited runners scored

Just money in the bank it seems. I still don’t know how he does it but he clearly baffles hitters and he leads relievers in first pitch strike % making his deceptive approach more effective.

Manny Delcarmen – 2-1, 2.41 – B

Interesting Stat – 15.8% K Rate

The declining K rate is cause for concern and his walk rate is also up. I think part of the problem for Delcarmen is that Francona seems to lift him at the first sign of trouble. Despite his reputation he has pitched well in key spots and should be a guy the Sox can depend on but I won’t be surprised if he is dealt in whatever deadline trade the Sox engineer.

Takashi Saito – 2-2, 3.52 – B

Interesting Stat – Bases Empty OPS - .903, Men on base OPS - .596

Saito has done a nice job but it seems like he is in the same boat as Delcarmen and not really trusted by Francona. It seems that his role is to fill in for whatever pitcher is tired that night and he’s never really Tito’s first choice. Still, when the fill in guy has a 3.52 ERA that ain’t bad.

Justin Masterson – 3-3, 4.98 – D

Interesting Stat – ERA as of June 27th – 3.66

The last ten days have really messed up Justin Masterson’s season. Still, those ten days do count. It is hard to say why he got hammered in those games against Baltimore and Kansas City. Is he really rubber-armed or did fatigue play a factor at the end of the 1st half?

Daniel Bard – 0-0, 2.55 – A

Interesting Stat – 5.8% XBH allowed, 2nd on team

After a nightmare of a 2007 season Daniel Bard has been steaming towards this moment. He has quite likely moved up the depth chart in the bullpen pretty significantly. The only concern right now is whether the league’s inevitable adjustments will prove too much for him to handle. Given the mix of an overpowering fastball and a nasty slider/curveball (have we decided yet?) I think he is capable of being a top reliever.

Javier Lopez – 0-2, 9.26 – F

Interesting Stat – 0 earned runs vs. Yankees and Angels

I’m pounded Lopez enough on this blog over the years. He was terrible and anything more than that would be piling on a guy who contributed to the 2007 World Champions.

Hunter Jones – 0-0, 8.00 – D

Interesting Stat – 0 earned runs in first three appearances

Jones gave the Sox a couple of nice outings to get his MLB career going then stumbled after that. Still, coming into a 1st and 2nd, one out situation and retiring Matsui and Melky on ESPN is something to tell the kids.

Michael Bowden – 0-0, 0.00 – A

Interesting Stat – Team High 33% K Rate

One outing, six up, six down. Like Jones he did it against the Yanks on ESPN (same game) helping the Sox to a victory. I believe his stuff is not-ready-for-prime-time and his value to the Sox is as a trade chip.

Mid-Season Report Card - The Hitters

It’s the traditional halfway point (observed) of the Major League Baseball season. I'll join the chorus of websites doing report cards with one of my own. Let’s look at the 2009 Red Sox and how they have performed so far. As always, players are graded against their own expectations.

1B – Kevin Youkilis – .298/.419/.566 - A

Interesting Stat – K Rate (21%) and BB Rate (15%) both career highs

Youk got off to a fast start but then after the injury stumbled a bit. Still, the results have been excellent and worries to the contrary he and Bay have provided a Ramirez/Ortiz caliber effort in the middle of the lineup and the Sox are on pace to score just eleven fewer runs than the 2007 World Champs did.

2B – Dustin Pedroia - .303/.378/.429 – C

Interesting Stat - .386 avg. w/RISP

After a solid start Pedroia had a rough June that was attributed by many to batting leadoff much of the month (I’m not buyin’ it). He got hot again before the break and while the home runs haven’t been there this year he is still hitting doubles at a fearsome rate. He won't be a perennial MVP candidate but if this is the player he is that's just fine because this is a pretty darned good ballplayer. He has replaced Mike Lowell on my list as “player I most want the ball hit to” in a key spot.

3B – Mike Lowell - .282/.319/.470 – C

Interesting Stat – 14 Walks

Lowell has never been a walk machine but unlike most aging players his walk rate is declining with age. Still, his season was going alright but he seemed to run out of steam a bit in June (this is a trend). Maybe the most important member of the Sox for the second half. If he can play 55 of the final 75 games at .775 OPS level then the Sox lineup should be in good shape, if not the Sox offense will suffer.

SS – Nick Green - .257/.326/.395 – A

Interesting Stat – 3.40 P/PA (last on team)

You can’t be positive enough about Green’s efforts year to date. He isn’t a star or even particularly good but to get a league average effort out of a guy who was third on the shortstop depth chart on March 15th is fantastic. If I have one constructive bit of criticism I wish he’d learn to take a bite out of the ball from time to time. He has a howitzer of an arm but sometimes makes throws that are not necessary inviting disaster. If the Sox play in October, Green’s contributions will be a large reason why.

LF – Jason Bay - .260/.380/.527 – B

Interesting Stat – 1.193 OPS in “Late and Close” situations

Was it me or did Jason Bay do something good everytime he batted in a close game for the first six weeks of the season? He joins the list of guys who had a less than enthralling June but this is his modus operandi, he is a streaky player. Even through his struggles his OPS is .663 for the last three weeks which as slumps go is pretty good.

Not related to anything but “Jay Bay” is the worst excuse for a nickname since “D-Lowe.” When your nickname is your first initial followed by your last name, it’s just lousy. I love Joe Castiglione but he needs to stop this.

CF – Jacoby Ellsbury - .297/.347/.399 – B

Interesting Stat – Picked off three times

The picked off thing interests me because I think it is indicative of a player still learning the craft of base stealing. Still, his season has been a good one as he is seeing more pitches/PA and striking out less. Normally strikeouts don’t faze me but Ellsbury doesn’t have the power or walks to offset them so he can’t lose at bats to strikeouts. I think he’s making strides that I wasn’t sure he would be able to make as a hitter.

RF – J.D. Drew - .252/.377/.477 – B

Interesting Stat – .352 OBP as leadoff hitter

He’s just having a solid little season for himself. The power has been the real plus as he has given the Sox some thump during a season when some of the more traditional thumpers have not done so.

C – Jason Varitek - .239/.348/.478 – A

Interesting Stat - .246 BABIP

I don’t think people have noticed how good he has been. Catchers with an .800+ OPS don’t grow on trees and the low BABIP suggests that he might actually get better in the second half. Catchers are notorious for fading in the second halves of seasons though so that may offset any BABIP related recovery. Still, the .826 OPS would be his highest since 2005 if it holds up.

DH – David Ortiz - .222/.317/.416 – D

Interesting Stat - .839 Home OPS/.607 Road OPS

Obviously he has come on since finally snapping the homerless streak. Since that day his OPS is .814, not great but solid enough. The Sox need him to produce on the road though and would be helped by a return of Mike Lowell to lengthen the lineup a smidge.

IF – Julio Lugo - .284/.352/.367 – C

Interesting Stat – Red Sox are 12-16 in Lugo started games

It has not been a fun year for Julio Lugo I imagine. He really looked inept in the field and his speed does not seem to be there anymore and ultimately he has lost his job and seems to be pretty well buried in Terry Francona’s dog house. Still, it is hard to quibble with a .352 OBP and has had some key games including a game winning hit in Baltimore the day after The Fiasco™ and his performance is acceptable as backup infielders go. What his fate is when Lowrie returns is an open question.

OF – Rocco Baldelli - .282/.358/.471 – B

Interesting Stat – 3 for 6 (.500) as a pinch hitter

Baldelli has done some nice work off the pine for the Sox this year. He’s provided some pop with four homers and chipped in some nice defense when asked including his fine throw in Friday’s game.

1B/OF – Jeff Bailey - .208/.330/.416 – C

Interesting Stat – 7% of batted balls are line drives, lowest on the team

Bailey did not really make the most of his opportunities to get going at the big league level. Still, his .746 OPS has been good enough to help the Sox offset the injuries to Youkilis and Lowell at different times.

C – George Kottaras – .218/.273/.372 – C

Interesting Stat - .710 OPS since May 1st

He’s not tearing it up but I think he’s done a nice job in a reserve role. If that .710 OPS since then end of April is indicative of his true talent level the Sox have themselves a useful player here. His work with Wakefield has been top notch with just seven passed balls. More notably Wakefield has only had three Wild Pitches after averaging nine per year since 2003, in part attributable to Kottaras’ work.

1B – Mark Kotsay - .269/.306/.343 – D

Interesting Stat - .497 OPS w/RISP

Even by Kotsay’s fairly pedestrian standards he hasn’t produced a lot. A fun guy to root for and his glove at first base is surprisingly good but really the Sox need to do better at the backup corner spot with Lowell’s health such a question mark. In my opinion it is simply unacceptable for the Red Sox to play the final two months (and October God willing) without a better option here. Theo needs to fix this problem.

SS – Jed Lowrie - .056/.150/.056 – F

Interesting Stat – Whiffed in all five games he played

There is little to say here. After five games and twenty helpless plate appearances he went on the DL and has been there ever since. The Sox need him to be right as they don’t have any internal options for the near-term. I’d rather they be patient with him than force him back in the lineup as Green’s performance has been acceptable. Guys coming back from wrist injuries often struggle. Judging him on 2009 won’t be fair.

OF/LHP - Jonathan Van Every - .364/.462/.636 – A

Interesting Stat – Career high 0.2 IP

In limited time Van Every was a real boost. He gave the Sox some help out of the bullpen that awful night in Tampa and was a hero in Cleveland with a key hit in the tying rally, a fine defensive play then a game winning home run.

1B - Aaron Bates - .364/.417/.545 – A

Interesting Stat – Team high 16.7% XBH rate

Bates had a nice weekend against the Royals for himself and certainly bought himself some time. Candidly I can’t imagine he isn’t at least as good an option as Kotsay and has a decent chance to be a better option. Not such a prospect that the Sox should feel obliged to let him develop in Pawtucket, it is probably better for both his career and the Sox’ 2009 season to have him be the backup 1st baseman.

OF/1B – Chris Carter - .000/.000/.000 – F

Interesting Stat – More sacrifice flies (1) than strikeouts (0)

Didn’t really get much of a chance but didn’t do anything when he did either in Boston or Pawtucket. Injuries to Bailey and Van Every keep him in the mix but Bates probably has gotten cutsies in the 1st base line.

IF – Gil Velazquez - .000/.333/.000 – D

Interesting Stat – Sox are 4-2 when he plays

Just another guy. After 983 minor league games through last season he probably appreciates the nine MLB games with the Sox more than most.

C – Dusty Brown – N/A – C

Interesting Stat – One game played

Struggling at Pawtucket and with Kottaras performing well and some other catchers (as addressed yesterday) making headway his window is probably closed or darned close.

Minor League and Organizational Update

Minor League Update time. I’m doing it in a different but I think more interesting and useful format that I hope you like. Sox Prospects was the source for much of the scouting notes throughout the piece and Baseball-Reference and Minor League Baseball were the sources for the stats.

What will become apparent is that the Sox organization is in excellent shape. Of some frustration is that while we see some well-regarded hitting prospects there doesn’t appear to be anyone likely to make an impactful debut before the 2010 All Star Break at best and likely 2011.

The pitching is in excellent shape all the way around.

1B – Kevin Youkilis, Mark Kotsay, Aaron Bates, Jeff Bailey, Lars Anderson, Chris Carter, Anthony Rizzo

The Sox are well-heeled at 1st with Youk locked up. Behind him things look a bit less impressive than a few months ago. Bates, Carter and Bailey seem to be filler though Bates (.293/.366/.442) has some pop and at only 25 still has a future.

Anderson is a more troubling case. The 21 year old is young enough that some struggles at AA Portland are to be expected but the power just hasn’t arrived yet. He strikes out quite a bit so he may be exploitable to quality pitching.

Kevin Goldstein in Baseball Prospectus quoted “scouts” as saying Anderson is now viewed as a “starter on a second division team.” That’s a big drop for a guy who opened the year as a top 20 prospect but I think reflects an over-reaction to a disappointing but not horrible year.

After missing much of 2008 due to non-Hodgkins Lymphoma Rizzo bounced back to shine with Greenville and showed good power with 21 doubles and nine homers in 64 games. The power didn’t follow to Salem yet with just one homer but he still has six doubles in just 16 games.

2B – Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Dent

Like at 1st the Sox are set for the next half decade at second with Pedroia. The lack of names here is not anything to worry about, most second baseman in MLB are converted shortstops (like Pedroia).

Dent is well regarded though. He’s got some pop for a middle infielder though he whiffs a lot. 31 for 38 in stolen base attempts the last two years and at a young 20 (March birthday) he has time to develop. I wonder if this is a guy who might find himself good enough to be traded at the deadline.

3B – Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, Zach Borowiak, Will Middlebrooks, Michael Almanzar

There is a big gap between today’s starter (Lowell) and the future of the position (Almanzar probably). Youkilis’ fate is tied to Lars Anderson’s development but at this point a 2010 Red Sox team with Anderson 1B/Youkilis 3B is unrealistic. The Sox will need something at one corner in the near future.

After a horrific start Will Middlebrooks is putting it together in Greenville. Since the end of May he is hitting .277 with a .455 slugging percentage. Michael Almanzar is a project but at only 18 he has time. He has struggled at both Greenville and now Lowell though the short term news at Lowell isn’t all bad as he has shown some improved plate discipline.

SS – Julio Lugo, Nick Green, Jed Lowrie, Argenis Diaz, Yamaico Navarro, Oscar Tejeda, Derrik Gibson, Casey Kelly, Jose Iglesias

That’s a lot of names of note without a lot going on. In truth, once you get past the big leaguers this ain’t bad. There is a gaping maw if Lowrie doesn’t do the job. Diaz is a glove man but isn’t hitting a lick and is down to a .247/.308/.302 line in Portland.

The 21 year old Navarro is playing quite well at Salem. Not only is the average good but his plate discipline is unusually good for a young middle infielder and his career ISO of .142 shows good power for a young middle infielder. Tejeda is the other half of the young signings (with Engel Beltre) of a couple of years ago. He has not shown a lot but like Almanzar is a project more than anything else so there isn’t a reason to get worked up yet.

It’s only 20 games but Derrik Gibson is really opening eyes in Lowell. A .400 OBP, eight extra base hits and 8 for 10 in steals is a terrific start. Sox Prospects describes him as “lightning fast.”

Kelly is headed to the Gulf Coast League (Ft. Myers) to start working on his swing after a tremendous run as a starting pitcher that concluded with a well-regarded nine pitch 1-2-3 inning in the futures game on Sunday.

Iglesias will soon receive the highest signing bonus of any Cuban player ever. He is considered a plus plus defender with a suspect bat. I’m not sure why a guy whose absolute upside is Omar Vizquel warrants such a financial investment. If his bat is any less than that he becomes Rey Ordonez pretty quickly.

OF Sluggers – Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Rocco Baldelli, Jonathan Van Every, Bubba Bell, Chris Carter, Jason Place, Josh Reddick, Ryan Westmoreland, Seth Schwindenhammer

I’ll touch on this tomorrow but J.D. Drew is having a great year and Bay is the big decision of the off-season. If Bay stays the Sox have a solid outfield for the next couple of years to allow some of the prospects to develop.

Van Every is injured and out for the year though his game in Cleveland should not be forgotten. Bell has shown some power and good plate discipline but at 26 years old and only 22 AAA games under his belt is not a big prospect. Despite some early season Boston time this has been a disappointing year for Chris Carter who seems to be getting lost in the shuffle.

For no apparent reason Place has been granted a promotion to Portland. His plate discipline is improving though it is still not good and for a guy viewed as a power hitter there is absolutely none to speak of. I stood next to him in Ft. Myers this Spring and while he’s listed at 6’3” I find that hard to believe. Like Anderson he is still young enough that it’s not cut bait time yet.

Josh Reddick is an exciting prospect who has advanced himself this year. 22 years old he has hit for some power in Portland with ten dingers in 199 AB and while he’s not fast he runs well enough to have stolen 14 bases a year ago. He is supposed to have a plus arm and has the speed to be a passable center fielder, skills that suggest a future right fielder at Fenway. Reddick is probably the most likely position player prospect to influence the 2010 Red Sox.

Westmoreland is a speedster coming off arm surgery in November. The 5th round pick of the Sox in ’08 he has a .398 OBP and is four for four in eighteen games at Lowell so far this year. Sox Prospects is very high on him.

Schwindenhammer (just the way it’s spelled) turned 18 on July 1st but was drafted as a power prospect. He is down in Ft. Myers getting his first swings in with a double and a triple among his six hits.

OF Non-Sluggers – Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Kalish, David Mailman, Che-Hsuan Lin, Mitch Dening, Reymond Fuentes

Ellsbury is entrenched in center field and has made excellent progress in his second full campaign. I am much higher on him than I was a year ago and while I doubt stardom is in his future I think he is rounding out better as a hitter than I felt he would and I think his defense is advancing also.

The athletic Kalish is considered a leadoff type hitter and his career line of .276/.366/.390 suggests that to be so. Another 21 year old at Portland who is struggling. I like that the Sox are pushing their guys through the system a bit. It is important for players to learn to cope with struggles and playing against players better than you is a good way to improve the game.

Mailman is an athletic 20 year old plying his wares in Salem. He played well for Greenville to start the year with a .297/.357/.467 line in 58 games while stealing ten bases in twelve attempts. Fifteen Salem games have not gone well so far though he has retained his ability to draw a base on balls.

Lin got off to a gruesome start but the speedy center fielder has picked it up and now sports a .359 OBP. The Sox are high on him supposedly but it seems like they have a critical mass of this type of player. He’s another one I see as potentially having some trade value with the right team.

The Australian Dening does not hit for power but does a nice job of getting on base. After a couple of years of sketchy base stealing (20 of 33) he has done well in 2009 (12 for 15).

Fuentes was the Sox #1 pick in 2009 and is the cousin of Carlos Beltran. He was selected as a Jacoby Ellsbury type and is off to a scintillating start in Ft. Myers with a .429/.484/.500 line.

C – Jason Varitek, George Kottaras, Dusty Brown, Mark Wagner, Tim Federowicz, Luis Exposito

It feels like the Sox might have something here. Varitek is obviously having a fine year and Kottaras has looked good in his role as Wakefield’s caddy. The Sox still probably need to be at least modestly concerned about 2010 though if Varitek doesn't return I wouldn't hate Kottaras going into the year as the starter. Brown has had a rough year and is falling on the depth chart.

Mark Wagner is described almost universally as a “leader” and a top defensive backstop. While his bat has never been particularly trusted he has hit every stop along the way and crushed at Portland to the tune of .301/.410/.477.

Federowicz is a bit further away but the 21 year old posted a .955 OPS at Greenville and earned promotion to Salem (where he has played solidly). His plate discipline seems lacking and is considered good defensively and athletic for a backstop.

Luis Exposito speaks Spanish and English well according to Sox Prospects which can only help. In Salem this year he flashed some power with 24 doubles in 64 games. Still viewed by most as the most likely long-term solution behind Varitek though I don’t see anything in Wagner’s stat line to suggest he can’t do the job.

SP – Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Charlie Zink, Felix Doubront, Bryan Price, Stephen Fife, Junichi Tazawa, Nick Hagadone, Stolmy Pimentel, Casey Kelly

I’m ducking the Major Leaguers for now, you know them. Suffice it to say the Sox rotation appears to be well heeled for the future with Lester and Matsuzaka locked in long term. I expect Beckett to get a long-term deal and the Sox have the depth to round things out.

Buchholz is impatiently whiling away the days in Pawtucket and has gotten knocked around a bit in his last three starts. That is more by comparison to his early season dominance than anything else.

Bowden got off to a fast start that included a great relief effort in Boston against the Yankees. June was a battle as he was 1-2 with a 6.28 ERA and his only July start featured ten base runners in 4 1/3 innings.

Zink’s got his line on BBRef but for now that’s all he has as the 29 year old has a 5.14 ERA this year.

I’m a big Doubront fan. The lanky, 21 year old, Venezuelan is having a fine year with a 3.57 ERA at Portland while fanning a batter an inning. His control has been a bit rough but he’s been intriguing.

Bryan Price, a 2008 supplemental 1st rounder, ripped through Greenville then went to Salem and was the rippee instead of the ripper. His K/BB ratio has remained strong through which is a positive sign. Stephen Fife missed time early with some arm fatigue but posted a 2.70 ERA in eight starts with Greenville and has recently been promoted to Salem. He has a tremendous 35/4 K/BB ratio.

Tazawa was the story of Spring Training and has kept writing that story into July. The little righty shows no signs of slowing down. Watching him in the Spring I couldn’t help but think of Keith Foulke as he seemed to hide the ball very well and was sneaky fast. Despite not throwing hard he got inside on hitters.

Hagadone has returned from Tommy John Surgery and pitched well. In six games he has a 4.50 ERA and is whiffing over a batter an inning. His control is a bit behind the times but that is common among TJS recoveries. He was hitting high 90s before the surgery, I haven’t heard anything about his velocity since the return.

Pimentel is another guy like Tazawa who seems to sneak up on hitters. He has a tremendous 4:1 K:BB ratio and at only 19 is opening eyes. Kelly dominated in his go-round as a starting pitcher to the point that Sox Prospects has moved him ahead of Anderson as their number one prospect. He rebounded from his one bad game (5IP, 7ER) to pitch six innings and allow just one run in his final start.

RP – Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen, Takashi Saito, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez, Javier Lopez, Hunter Jones, TJ Large, Bryce Cox, Dustin Richardson, Josh Papelbon

An embarrassment of riches at the big league level (though I wouldn’t mind seeing Okajima’s name on a new contract soon) the Sox like most teams develop their pitchers as starters. Hagadone’s name has been brought up from time to time as a potential reliever in the future as has Bryan Price.

Even if you pull Okajima and Saito out of the equation the Sox core of Papelbon, Masterson, Delcarmen, Bard and Ramirez would be the envy of any team in baseball both in 2009 and the coming couple of seasons.

Bard has advanced aggressively through the system since a disastrous 2007 season and has probably pitched his final minor league game unless something changes. T.J. Large is having a dominating season for Portland with a 1.08 ERA though his K rate is low for a top reliever.

Bryce Cox has yet to recapture his form from his fine senior year at Rice. While his ERA is good he is allowing too many base runners and striking out far too few to be taken seriously as a prospect at this point.

Dustin Richardson is establishing himself as a potential LOOGY. He has held LHB to a .157 average in 2009. His strikeouts are up big with 64 in 48.1 innings but the 31 walks scream “Javier Lopez” to me. Still, after a nightmare in 2008 it is nice to see him rallying himself.

The other Papelbon keeps pitching well enough to hang around but not so well as to really intrigue anyone.

Fragile Freddy’s Top Ten Prospects (Buchholz, Bard and Lowrie no longer qualify);

10. Mark Wagner – C – Power, defense, what else you want in a catcher?
9. Ryan Kalish – OF – Exciting athlete
8. Stolmy Pimentel – Succeeding above his age level
7. Yamaico Navarro - Power at short provides intrigue
6. Nick Hagadone – LHP – Potential Ace
5. Felix Doubront – LHP – Rebounded from rough ‘07
4. Junichi Tazawa – RHP – He seems very mature and nearly ready
3. Casey Kelly – RHP – Dominant stuff
2. Lars Anderson – 1B – Would like to see some improvement in the 2nd half
1. Josh Reddick – OF – Potential five tool star

I can't stress enough that you should visit Sox Prospects. Scouting reports on virtually every player in the system provided a lot of the scouting type talk you read above (not verbatim, if I quoted directly, I noted it).

Weekend Recap

When this homestand started on Friday the 3rd I felt the Sox needed to go 7-3 to make it a productive homestand. With the weak competition and the Sox playing well at that point I felt bringing it home strong was necessary.

It was a tall order particularly when you realize that Felix Hernandez was one of the opposing starters meaning they would have to go 7-2 in other starts if (as happened) they lost to The King. I felt it was doable though.

Unfortunately the Sox came up a bit short and had what I view as a disappointing homestand going 6-4. What could have been an awful homestand was avoided over the weekend as the Sox finished strong with three straight wins to go into the break with sole possession of first place three games up, a half game better than when they started the homestand.

In a first half that started poorly for the rotation it was the starting pitchers who brought it home working 22 innings and allowing just one run over the weekend.

Friday

- Jon Lester is dominating right now. After a rough start his 8-6, 3.87 line is impressive as all get out. He and Terry Francona are mocking the Verducci Effect (suggesting starters who jump in innings will falter in the ensuing season) in an almost arrogant way.

Lester has thrown 100 or more pitches in 11 consecutive starts. He certainly looks the part of a horse with his physical size and he is pitching great lately but this bears some watching. Tangentially related the Sox have jiggered the rotation to have Clay Buchholz pitch on Friday (1st game after the break) followed by; Penny-Lester-Smoltz-Beckett-Wakefield so everyone gets a nine day break which is smart. (thanks Adam Kilgore at Extra Bases)

- It was frustrating to see Ellsbury ejected in the fifth but he was clearly safe. Players are responsible for their actions and Ellsbury crossed the line but this was an egregiously bad call and his anger was understandable.

- The Sox caught a break in the 7th when Teahen was thrown out trying to go first to second on a fly ball to center. Had he held his ground the Royals would have had a runner at third with one out in a 0-0 game. I wonder if perhaps Teahen forgot that Ellsbury had been tossed and the much better throwing Baldelli was in center.

- In the 8th Green dropped down a perfect sacrifice with two strikes. I normally disdain the sacrifice but felt in that situation it was a right play. What I loved was Green bunting with two strikes.

If you are a Major Leaguer, especially one with Green’s ability, you need to be able to bunt and if you get three shots at it you should be able to do so. In my opinion if you send the batter to the plate you let him do it. I hate putting the bunt on then taking it off, if you are going to do it, do it. It should be noted that Green executed the two strike bunt on his own as Francona had removed it.

- In the 8th the Sox pinch ran for Kotsay with Aaron Bates. Why was Lugo not used? I haven’t seen anything but I know Lugo was not with the team on Thursday night due to a serious family issue and I wonder if Francona felt he was not mentally prepared to play.

Extra Bases' Ben Collins gave us this little chestnut "Yep, Julio Lugo is still on the team. Why do you ask?" Glad the Globe has someone on the spot giving us this information. Amalie Benjamin is excellent with the blogs and Adam Kilgore is usually decent, Shaughnessy, Mazz and Collins (who I've never heard of) usually do a poor job.

- Papelbon was sensational with both movement and location on his fastball. His 1-2 pitch to fan Guillen was excellent elevation. He got it around Guillen’s chin which is perfect, enticing but not hittable. Even in years passed I’ve felt Papelbon was poor at elevating the fastball and often would either catch too much of the plate or throw it far too high.

Saturday

- John Smoltz was excellent. I thought his slider was very impressive really darting side to side with some downward movement as well. It got lost in the chaos that ensued but he really did some pitching with runners at first and third and no outs in the fourth to avoid allowing a run.

- You can’t criticize Miguel Olivo’s base running in the sixth enough. I’ll add my voice to those who have pointed out that he needs to be halfway in that situation. Drew made a wonderful throw but not enough has been said about Varitek doing a nice job to turn into a first baseman on the play. That’s a tough thing for a catcher to do.

- Varitek was involved in a strange play in the 7th when on what should have been a 3-2-3 DP Olivo threw the ball away leading to three crucial runs. It should be noted that Varitek does not need to be hit with the ball, he nearly needs to have been adjudged to have interfered with the throw while being out of the running lane which I felt he clearly was.

Rule 6.05(k) In running the last half of the distance from home base to first base, while the ball is being fielded to first base, he runs outside (to the right of) the three-foot line, or inside (to the left of) the foul line, and in the umpire’s judgment in so doing interferes with the fielder taking the throw at first base

- The Sox got two things in this game that they didn’t get in the fiasco in Baltimore. First, they found a pitcher who could get them through an inning unscathed in Bard and second and maybe more importantly they added on some runs.

You don’t want to criticize the offense in a game where they score nine or ten runs. If they score those runs in the first three or four innings adding on a run here and there as a game progresses is how games turn into laughers.

Sunday

- Josh Beckett closed out the first half in style. The shutout was his third shutout with the Sox and second in regular season play (Game One of the 2007 ALDS is the other). He and Lester are currently forming a spectacular 1-2 punch and I really hope that Terry Francona leaves them separated in the rotation in the second half. Doing so ensures that every series will feature at least one of the hurlers and helps mitigate the short outings of Penny and Smoltz.

- Watching Rocco Baldelli in the first half has been interesting. He does some things quite well but he seems to have a low baseball IQ. Getting thrown out to forfeit the run by Bay on the sac fly was a mistake on Sunday (was Bay running hard? Joe and Dave didn’t say on the radio).

I wonder if this is something that guys like Baldelli (great physical tools, grew up in the north) struggle with. Players who grow up in the northern states play less often than players in the south and Rhode Island is hardly a Major League hot bed with only 71 Major Leaguers in history (three Hall of Famers – Hugh Duffy, Gabby Hartnett and Nap Lajoie).

Baldelli was such a natural talent at a young age I wonder if he just never had a need to learn the finer points of the game like someone playing more often and more equivalent competition might.

- On the opposite spectrum of Baldelli is Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia made a nifty maneuver to dodge Buck’s tag in the first. Dave O’Brien pointed out that Pedroia makes nifty little moves around the bases frequently. Joe Castiglione added that on plays like that, and diving defensive plays, Pedroia’s small stature often is a benefit to him. Both points I agree with.

- Jason Bay was the 27th player since 1954 to bat at least five times without an official at bat or being walked intentionally. The last was Dodger Jose Valentin on April 7, 2005 and last American Leaguer since Rickey Henderson on July 30, 2000. No Red Sox player has done it in that time.

- Odd play in the 7th when Pedroia singled off Teahen’s glove. Green on second base was waved home by Hale and I don’t know what Hale was smoking on the play as the shortstop had picked the ball up and would have thrown Green out by 30 feet.

Scheduling Update: I make no promises here but the plan is to have a minor league update Tuesday followed by mid-season report cards (hitters - Wednesday, pitchers - Thursday) during the break. Hopefully time and events will permit this schedule.

Good: Milestone weekend;

Aaron Bates' Firsts – Hit, Extra Base Hit, RBI, Run scored (and error…shhh)
David Ortiz – 1,000th hit as a member of the Red Sox
Josh Beckett – 100th career win
John Smoltz – 1st win with Red Sox and 1st American League victory

Bad: Justin Masterson failed again in relief. He has now allowed multiple runs in three of his last six outings. I have no earthly idea what is up with him. The easy suggestion is fatigue but other than results I've got nothing to base that particular theory on. For now I'll assume just a standard reliever hiccup but let's see him after the break.

Ugly: No Red Sox baseball until Friday. How do I go on?

Sunday Notes

One of the great things about baseball over the years has been the styles. A baseball uniform has aspects of style that you really don’t see in the other team sports. Other than the occasional outlier (like Gretzky’s half tucked in/half untucked jersey) there is very little to be said of the style.

In baseball this isn’t true. When you watch a game even players on the same team often have very different ways to wear their jerseys. We’ve seen players like Manny Ramirez who wore the pants very long to the point of hooking them on the bottom of the cleats to guys like Mike Timlin who wore the high stockings.

When I see a Major League player in uniform I am struck by three primary areas of style that a player can impart;

The Top Button – This is a little thing but there is always something a little cooler about a guy keeping the top button undone. Some players (most actually it seems) have the jersey buttoned all the way to the top but once in awhile you see a player who will have the top button undone.

I always think of David Wells when I think of this look and it seems that it is done by either heavier players or players who tend to be fairly “cool” with their look.

Stockings/Stirrups – I have to admit that my personal favorite look is completely gone from the game. I am a big fan of the thin stirrup up each side of the leg with the pants stopping just below the knee.

That does not exist anymore though. Today’s look is either the pants coming all the way to the ankle (or further) or the full-covering stocking over the sanitary hose. Given those two options I prefer showing the stocking as I think baseball pants should be knickers like those worn by golfers rather than full length pants.

Hats – I will never forget when Bo Jackson was signed by the Royals they presented him with a cap at the press conference and his first act was to bend the brim. This led to a bunch of articles about how Jackson respected the game and stuff like that.

I won’t go that far but I really can’t stand the flat brim look. To me a baseball cap has a bent brim and is worn straight-ahead. I guess I’m getting old but the flat brim/angled to the side look (C.C. Sabathia style) is a look that I can’t stand.

It’s a little thing but I love that baseball has a uniform that allows for these individual intricacies. And yes, I’m aware of the irony of a “uniform” being individualized. One of the things that makes baseball fun to watch is that you can easily look at a game and quickly identify the player just by his style and mannerisms.
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On Sunday the formation of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) was announced. It is the brainchild of Howard Cole who runs BaseballSavvy.com. According to David Pinto (who is an inaugural member) the ultimate goal is to secure a Hall of Fame vote.

I think this is a great idea. It is clear that the BBWAA is moving at a glacial pace in terms of accepting members from the web. While some high profile members like Rob Neyer have been added the process is going slowly. At this point suggesting there is a significant difference because one writes for a newspaper rather than a blog is silly.

It could be argued that he IBWAA excludes those writers that work for newspapers. I would suggest that anyone writing for a paper and ink production is still going to find their stuff included on a website. At this point I cannot envision a situation where a writer of any sort of periodical would not qualify as an “internet” writer.

More importantly though is that the IBWAA’s goal of legitimacy is hampered by their low barrier to entry. From the press release; “(a)ssociation memberships are open to any and all Internet baseball writers, with a yearly membership of $10.”

This makes it too easy for a person to enter. There should be some standards of length of service and quality of writing to allow someone to have a Hall of Fame vote. By the criteria listed above I could become a member and I don’t think I have earned that right yet. For that reason, at the moment I am not signing up though I am considering it.

I’ve addressed this in the past and I do NOT think that readership should be a requirement for membership in something like this. There are some very smart people out there with a small audience and there are some very stupid people out there with large audiences. Popularity is not proof of legitimacy.

This is an interesting and exciting idea. It has become clear that the BBWAA as currently constituted does not represent a wide enough scope of baseball writing. By the same token their attempts to incorporate non-traditional writers have been far to slow and they are rapidly becoming an obsolete organization.

The IBWAA is an interesting idea and one that I think can have a very real impact on the game we all love.
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There was some palace intrigue this week involving two of the game’s best known players, an announcer and a couple of umpires. The incidents in question happened at separate times and in separate games but are linked by a common theme; integrity.

On Monday afternoon Derek Jeter became incensed at an out call on a stolen base attempt. Allegedly third base umpire Marty Foster told Jeter that the ball beat him to the bag and it was not necessary for a tag to be applied for the out call to be made.

On Tuesday night Manny Ramirez was ejected from a game for arguing and throwing equipment by home plate umpire John Hirschbeck. The cause of Manny’s displeasure was a strike call on a pitch well outside the strike zone. In the Mets’ press box play by play man Gary Cohen implied that Hirschbeck had called the strike as his own personal punishment on Manny for PED usage.

These are two very serious accusations. Let’s start with the Foster/Jeter situation (which resulted in Joe Girardi’s ejection). Jeter has stood by his remarks in subsequent days without equivocation that Foster said the tag was not necessary. If this is true then in my opinion Foster is grotesquely ignorant of the rules of baseball and should be dismissed for cause no later than immediately.

If he did not say this, then Jeter is calling his integrity into question by effectively calling Foster a liar and that is the issue I want to look at today. In the Hirschbeck/Ramirez situation Cohen is the one on the hook here. Far more than Jeter’s words Cohen is directly saying that Hirshbeck’s integrity is invalid.

There is no more serious charge that I can consider than questioning an umpire’s integrity. For all the scandals that baseball has endured over the years there has never been a serious umpiring scandal and that is fortunate. What Jeter and Cohen (especially) have done is accuse Foster and Hirshbeck of the most serious of crimes, willful intent to perform duties contrary to the rules of the game.

Jeter’s situation appears to be a bit more vague in the “he said/she said” style. Still, it seems that MLB should review the situation and ultimately make a ruling and either Foster or Jeter should be suspended for a short time at a minimum. While I called for his dismissal earlier I suspect that there is no way to conclusively prove that Foster said what he is accused of saying to a point where that would be a fair result. However, one of these two men is incorrect and the seriousness of the charge requires that a stern punishment in the form of suspension is in order.

The Cohen situation is at once more serious and more complex. On the one hand, I heartily believe it is necessary to permit commentators to be independent and must be allowed to speak their minds. By the same token, some semblance of respect and reasonableness needs to be in order.

Just as I find it reprehensible when announcers hint at a player’s PED usage I find what Cohen is alleged to have said (I can’t find a transcript anywhere) even worse. He has gone out of his way to question a man’s integrity with absolutely zero evidence.

It is my understanding that MLB still has the right to approve the announcers for a game. While I wouldn’t endorse MLB requiring Cohen to be fired I think a suspension is in order similar to what I suggested for the Jeter/Foster. If Cohen did make this accusation outright without qualification then in my view he has crossed that line that separate free and independent speech into libel and he should be punished.
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In the course of researching something unrelated I stumbled upon an interesting little fact. Evidently former MLB pitcher Darren Dreifort has undergone 22 separate surgeries including 12 during his playing career and eight more since his last game (some of which would have been during the time he was still trying to get back on the field).

As fans we often hear about these players undergoing surgery and think nothing of it. There is a very real cost here though. I don’t care who you are, surgery is an unpleasant activity Someone is sticking a knife into your body and opening you up. When this happens you react like someone who got stabbed on the street, you bleed, it hurts and your body rebels over time as you break down.

This was a shocking number to me though. The idea of 22 surgeries, or heck, just the 12 during his career is incomprehensible. Dreifort made his MLB debut on April 7, 1994 and made his final appearance on August 16, 2004. During that time he was undergoing surgery every 315 days on average.

Once you get through rehab and everything that does not leave a lot of time to actually pitch. According to the LA Times he was being inducted into the College Baseball Hall of Fame “in his words, ‘whether I can walk, or how well I'm getting around.” Beyond that is the fact that “he experiences almost constant pain.” and “I'm doing nothing…and I'm still having surgery.” (thanks NBC sports).

Darren Dreifort certainly made plenty of his money in his career. He is a young man of just 37 years old with three children under the age of ten. Hopefully he is set for life and so are they but still, they are kids who will want to play with dad. They will want to roughhouse and play catch and do things boys do with their dad. That is not going to be easy for Darren Dreifort and many others like him.

It is easy from afar to say “it’s worth the money and fame” but I wonder if that is always true. I’m not suggesting any of us should feel bad for Darren Dreifort but we should remember that there is a real human cost for some of the things professional athletes put themselves through to bring us the joy they bring.
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A couple of trades went down on Friday. One is the relatively inconsequential exchange by the Royals of two minor leaguers for shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt from the Mariners. By all accounts the pitchers received by the Mariners may be alright and Betancourt is looking like a lost cause at this point.

The more significant trade was engineered by Omar Minaya and Frank Wren and was a good old fashioned challenge trade. The Mets sent outfielder Ryan Church to Atlanta for outfielder Jeff Francoeur. Minaya is being eviscerated in most places for his acquisition of Francoeur and that is appropriate. There is simply no reason to make this deal

Very simply Ryan Church is a superior baseball player to Jeff Francoeur and it is not particularly close. Francoeur is overrated by OPS and OPS+ because the “O” in that number is so poor. With a career OBP of .308 and an OBP below .300 three of the last four seasons he is going the wrong way.

The “S” is not exactly special either. For a guy with a poor OBP his power is pretty minimal as he has had an ISO of .120 in 2008 and .102 in 2009. Not terrible numbers but certainly not a slugger’s performance. Not that this isn’t enough but by all accounts Francoeur’s defense has regressed dramatically the last couple of years as well.

So he can’t get on base, he doesn’t hit for power and he doesn’t play good defense.

Church on the other hand is a nice little player. He’s having a down year but his OBP of .332 is still pretty solid and while his power is way down in 2009 there may be a Citi Field effect in play as his road numbers (.326/.359/.444) are pretty solid.

There is some reason to not hate this trade if you are Mets fan. It comes with an unpleasant realization and that realization is that the Mets are accepting that they are out of it in 2009. With Delgado, Reyes and Beltran not coming back soon and already below .500 over five games out of both the NL East and Wild Card standings they aren’t winning anything this year.

To that end, Francoeur might be a player worth trying to save. He is only 25 years old and has tasted success at the big league level. His career performance against LHP (.289/.334/.468) suggests he may be able to find a role as a utility outfielder with his strong arm.

Look, I hate the trade from the Mets standpoint. They get an inferior player who seems headed in the wrong direction. When you trade your starting right fielder and the “good news” is that the guy you get back might be a passable 4th outfielder in a year or two that’s a pretty rotten trade.
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Time for yet another installment of my series on the period from 1976-1986. This week it’s a look at the top five center fielders of that era as well as one guy I choose at random to talk about. As with last week the only criteria are;

60% of games at the position
Minimum 2000 PA
Only his performance during those years is relevant

#5 – Chet Lemon – Lemon was a solid centerfielder who had the misfortune of playing for the White Sox when they wore shorts. Traded to the Tigers for Steve Kemp he was a key contributor on the ’84 World Champions. A solid defender with decent power and some speed he was an all around type of player.

#4 – Dwayne Murphy – A largely forgotten player he was part of a terrific Oakland outfield with RF Tony Armas and LF Rickey Henderson. Murphy was a three true outcome guy and added decent speed to the mix. He was known for playing a very good and very shallow centerfield where he was rewarded with six Gold Gloves.

#3 – Andre Dawson – Always a controversial type. Like Derek Jeter who gets underrated by his detractors (for his low OBP) and overrated by his fans (for his speed and defense) Dawson was a very good to great player in his time. It is perfectly reasonable to combine the two and say he was a great player who had a significant flaw.

Before his knees went South he was an excellent defender and he was both a prolific and efficient base stealer. While he’s remembered by many for hobbling through his final years from he was quite durable during this period playing 91% of his team’s games.

#2 – Fred Lynn – The patron saint of this site. A player who resonated with fans for his reckless style, his spectacular defense and his tremendous offense, he was a true five tool player.

His trade to the Angels hurt his career as he was made for Fenway but he also was hurt by the unreasonable expectations of his 1st season. That year he was the first to combine Rookie of the Year and MVP honors into one package. Like Ellsbury he shined in a short call up before his rookie year but he was better hitting .419 with a 1.188 OPS in 15 games.

#1 – Dale Murphy – It is hard to believe that a guy who washed out at catcher would go on to win five Gold Gloves as a centerfielder but there you are. Crippled by an inability to throw back to the pitcher he averaged eight assists a year in center from ’80 – ’86.

A devastating offensive weapon in his prime he had both power and speed averaging 31 homers and 16 steals a year from 1980 to 1986. Like Rice he had an inexplicable and abrupt decline going from .295-44-105 in 1987 to pretty well cooked by 1989.
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Some final notes;

- The Sox have activated Jed Lowrie and sent him on a rehab assignment while DFAing Jonathan Van Every to make room on the 40 man roster. In eleven games he is hitting .286/.375/.400.

When Lowrie returns things are going to be sticky for the Sox. I honestly am not sure what the roster move is when he comes back. Green doesn’t deserve to be let go obviously and Lugo has not been so bad as to warrant releasing, what do you do? Kotsay would be my choice but I don’t see that happening.

I think it is a mistake to assume Lowrie is going to come back and hit right away. I like Jed Lowrie but he has played five big league games all year and expecting him to hit the ground running is a little optimistic.

- If you missed it Seattle Mariners’ Single A right fielder James McOwen had a 45 game hitting streak snapped on Friday night. The High Desert outfielder plays in one of the best hitting environments known to man but in a league that dates back linearly to 1941 his streak is the longest ever. The all time minor league record of 69 games set by Joe Wilhoit of the Wichita Witches in 1919.

Wilhoit by the way played six Major League games that year, for the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox. They were the final six games of his four year, 283 game MLB career.

- Sometimes it’s nice not to be alone. Apparently I'm not the only one a bit concerned about our closer.

- Terry Francona is often criticized for sticking with "his" guys. It should be remembered that he put Pedroia in for Cora, he put Ellsbury in for Crisp, as far back as '05 he made Papelbon a key contributor in the bullpen and then replaced Foulke with Papelbon in '06. When the situation has called for it he has made the move to the young player. Daniel Bard looks like a guy who is going to get more important innings in the final 75 games in 2009.

Jonathan Sanchez

It is one of the magic moments of baseball and it comes at the most mundane of times from the most unexpected places. Joe Cowley has one but Pedro Martinez does not. Kent Mercker has one but Roger Clemens does not. Jose Jimenez has one but Greg Maddux does not.

It is a no hitter and last night in San Francisco left-hander Jonathan Sanchez added his name to the list of immortals by no hitting the San Diego Padres.

Sanchez was magnificent on the evening as no base runner reached due to his negligence. Only an 8th inning error by third baseman Juan Uribe spoiled that elitist of elite, the perfect game. Sanchez struck out eleven and threw 110 pitches while making his first start since June 22nd.

Sanchez, once a highly sought after prospect, has struggled to establish himself in the Majors. In parts of four seasons his best ERA was his 4.95 effort in 2006. On July 10, 2009 the 26 year old stamped his name indelibly on the record books of Major League Baseball.

I did the research quickly but I believe Jonathan and Anibal Sanchez are only the second unrelated players to share a surname who both threw no hitters. They join Dennis and Ramon Martinez in that category. Brothers Bob and Ken Forsch each threw no hitters also.

Game 86 Recap/Weekend Preview

KCR – 000 304 010 – 8 – 13 – 1
BOS – 301 000 010 – 6 – 10 – 1

The Sox continued to give away games against lesser teams after blowing a 4-0 lead and dropping an 8-6 decision to the lowly Royals. After marching through a series of first place teams like Sherman through the South the Sox have faced down the Orioles, Mariners, Athletics and now Royals and are a disappointing 5-5 in that stretch. What makes this so exasperating is that the Sox gave away big leads a couple of times in that stretch.

- Brad Penny struggled tonight from the start. What was most frustrating was his inability to put people away as he got to two strikes on 13 separate hitters but retired just 7 out of the 13, a .461 OBP.

- The bullpen was the goat once again though. Delcarmen got it rolling allowing a double to Teahen. After two soft bouncers to Youkilis he looked like he was getting out of it. With the Sox playing Callaspo the other way his crisply hit grounder up the first base line squeezed into right for an RBI double.

I felt Francona was too quick to lift Delcarmen here though I didn’t hate the move. Masterson against a righty is never a bad move and Masterson made a good pitch and got Freel to pop to center but it dropped in to tie the game. The problem with Masterson is against lefties he can be susceptible and DeJesus exploited him with a two run homer.

Ramirez entered in the seventh and I thought pitched well. He made some real nasty pitches to log four Ks in 1.2 IP but got bit by the ball Bloomquist hit that became a triple. His effort was pretty solid I thought and he may have just run out of steam throwing 40 pitches.

- Daniel Bard was extraordinary. He absolutely overwhelmed the Kansas City hitters and since getting hammered in Philadelphia last month has pitched 8.2 IP in seven appearances with nine strikeouts and has been unscored upon in seven of the eight outings.

- It’s hard to criticize the bats too much on a night when the pitching staff allows eight runs but the Sox should have had more. They were pounding Hochevar who did not impress at all. They should have done more with him and had they been able to push across the occasional run as the game progressed they could have bailed out the staff.

- David Ortiz led off the 8th inning and walked. With the Sox down by three it is absolutely unconscionable that he was not bunting there. While he reached base the fact is that the Royals were giving the Sox a free base runner with the overshift and Ortiz’ refusal/inability to bunt is unacceptable. This situation comes up half a dozen times a year and Ortiz hurts the Red Sox by not being able to bunt in that spot.

Good: Having just ripped him I want to congratulate David Ortiz. His first inning home run was the 300th of his Major League career becoming just the 122nd player to hit 300 home runs tying Adam Dunn and Chuck Klein. Rogers Hornsby with 301 homers is next on the hit parade.

Bad: Prior to Bard’s entrance into the game Penny, Delcarmen, Masterson and Ramirez combined to allow the Royals to reach base 11 times in 24 plate appearances after their were two strikes, a .458 OBP.

Ugly: What in God’s name happened on Bloomquist’s triple? It looked like a fairly benign long single/hustle double but Ellsbury and Drew seemed to miscommunicate on the play. My view at Fenway (I was at the game) is such that that spot in the park is blocked by a beautiful green pole so I didn’t see quite what happened but it looked ugly.
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Weekend Preview

Opponent: Kansas City Royals

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers:

Friday – Jon Lester (7-6, 4.16) vs. Brian Bannister (6-6, 3.87)
Saturday – John Smoltz (0-2, 6.60) vs. Gil Meche (4-8, 4.14)
Sunday – Josh Beckett (10-3, 3.62) vs. Bruce Chen (0-3, 6.88)

Randomness: It’s almost 1AM, I’ll try and give you something Friday afternoon if I’m functional.

Starting Pitcher - Tim Wakefield?

Is Tim Wakefield going to start the All Star Game? As amazing as that thought is there is a relatively decent chance it will happen. Starting the All Star Game requires a couple of things to happen; first a pitcher needs to be having a good enough year to be named to the team and second he needs to be available.

Most of the top pitchers will be pitching this weekend and may or may not be available to start the ASG. Let’s look at the list of starters and their final scheduled start prior to the break;

Josh Beckett – Final Start Sunday – Unavailable
Mark Buehrle – Sunday - Unavailable
Roy Halladay – Thursday – Available
Zack Greinke – Wednesday - Available
Felix Hernandez – Thursday - Available
Edwin Jackson – Friday - Available
Justin Verlander – Sunday – Unavailable

So this leaves Wake in a five way horserace to start the ASG. Of the five pitchers listed as available (including Wakefield) there is reason to believe any of them would be rewarded with the start.

Edwin Jackson, the least deserving in my opinion, is a former player of Joe Maddon’s and I don't know what kind of relationship they have. Greinke or Halladay are the most deserving players on the board and surely would be excellent choices (I’d pick Halladay) while Felix Hernandez is certainly an outstanding pitcher as well.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wakefield get the nod though. It is clear from his selection to the team that Maddon holds Wakefield in high regard. With a league high 11 wins you can certainly nod to Wake’s first half to grant him this honor.

Lastly, from a strategic standpoint there are two benefits. The starting catcher, Joe Mauer, has experience catching the knuckleball thanks to R.A. Dickey so having him back there for Wakefield wouldn’t hurt. Also, you can argue that the NL hitters would be flummoxed facing Wakefield then hard throwers after him though since players rarely get more than one at bat in an All Star Game this shouldn’t be a consideration.

I still think Halladay is the best choice and he should be available. But I won’t be shocked if Joe Maddon honors Tim Wakefield one more time by granting him the start in the 2009 All Star Game.

Game 84 Recap/Game 85 Preview

OAK – 010 000 200 – 4 – 13 – 0
BOS – 000 004 10x – 5 – 7 – 1

The Sox got the win in the rubber game of the series against the Athletics behind a strong outing from Tim Wakefield and a couple of well timed long balls. Papelbon continued his season long conversion into John Wetteland by making the ninth inning very exciting (and had the win not been blowing in the Sox would have trailed but Hairston’s ball stayed in the yard).

- Tim Wakefield had a honey of a knuckler on this night. It was really dancing throughout the night and while he got himself into trouble on a few occasions he really had good stuff and was able to get out of it.

I felt it was a blunder on the part of Terry Francona to ask him to start the seventh though. I know I’ve talked about this in the past but I believe Wake struggles when he has to wait in the dugout during long innings. See Randomness below for more on this subject.

- Fans often complain that their team “always” gets shutdown by unknown pitchers. Generally it’s a load of bunk but you saw a little bit of that phenomenon in this game. Cahill allowed just one of the first nine men to reach (.111 OBP). After getting a look at him the Sox were much better the second time through as they sent 14 batters against him from the start of the 4th until he left in the 6th and seven of them (.500 OBP) reached.

- It is incredible when you consider the start to the season but David Ortiz is going to the All Star Break with no fewer than ten home runs. He had another RBI in the 7th on a groundout with men at 2nd and 3rd.

During the at bat Eckersley and Orsillo (and Freddy) were quite surprised to see Wuertz pitching to Ortiz instead of giving him the free pass. Wuertz has a reverse platoon split where he actually has been better against lefties than righties the last couple of years. Of course that doesn’t explain the decision to lift him for Ellsbury.

- It was a poor night for the respective shortstops in my opinion. Orlando Cabrera hurt the A’s three times, maybe costing them the game with the latter two;

* In the sixth on the pickoff play Ellsbury made a nice slide Cabrera made a lazy tag. In that situation it is necessary for Cabrera to get himself in front of the bag and block off the runner. By trying for the casual swipe tag he allowed Ellsbury to make his nifty slide successful.

* In the ninth Cabrera failed to take second on his hit down the line and seemed to be dogging it on the hit. When the right fielder at Fenway fields a ball like that he always stumbles into the wall (I believe the field is sloped for drainage purposes) and he would have made it.

* Then, there was no reason not to have stolen second. Base runners are having their way with Papelbon this year and he needed to get himself in scoring position. By not doing so he only advanced to second on Suzuki’s hit rather than scoring.

His opposite number was no prize either;

* Green had as wretched at bat as you can have in the bottom of the sixth swinging at pitches out of the zone to strike out and strand Ellsbury at third with one out.

* In the top of the seventh on the pop up by Hairston the Sox had Crosby doubled off second but Kotsay’s throw was not a great one and bounced to Green. Green butchered the heck out of it though by somehow missing the base despite having plenty of time.

* Then on the two out single by Suzuki that plated two I felt he should have made the play even though the ball was hit hard.

- Two fine defensive plays saved runs. Youkilis converting the line drive into a 5-3 double play in the second ended the inning then Pedroia's fantastic diving stab of Cust's grounder that definitely saved a run in the seventh.

Good: Uncredited defense was the order of the day. George Kottaras did a remarkable job in the 2nd. With a man at third and no outs Wakefield had the knuckler dancing and Kottaras made several excellent stabs to keep the ball from getting away as the A’s stranded a runner at third with no outs. A key moment early in the game

Then in the ninth, while I was critical of Cabrera for the single that wasn’t a double, part of the credit belongs to Drew for hustling over to get the ball in quickly.

Bad: I know, I’m an alarmist but Jonathan Papelbon isn’t pitching well. His WHIP is now 1.368 which is a high number of base runners for a closer. Only 12 men have saved 35 games with a WHIP of 1.368 or higher since in the last eight seasons. Something has to give, either he is going to pitch better or Papelbon is going to blow some saves.

Ugly: Some blogger who shall remain nameless said that with the win last night the Sox had even their record at 2-2 on the home stand. Of course last night’s loss only made the Sox 2-3 on the home stand. Oopsie. After Wednesday's win they are even on the home stand at 3-3, this time I'm sure of it!
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Game 85

Opponent: Kansas City Royals

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers: Brad Penny (6-3, 4.67) vs. Luke Hochevar (4-3, 5.08)

Randomness: I commented above (and have in the past as well) that Wakefield in my opinion is better off when the Sox aren’t doing a lot offensively. My opinion is that because the knuckler is such a “feel” pitch that he needs to be in a rhythm more than any other pitcher.

What I did is look at Wakefield’s performance as a starter with the Red Sox in his career. I separated out games where the Sox score seven or more runs and games where the Sox score three or fewer runs and calculated his ERA in those games.

I won’t claim that the following numbers are proof positive of anything but thought I’d share them with you;

Red Sox Score Seven or More Runs – 4.65
Red Sox Score Three or Fewer Runs – 4.36

There are a lot of reasons this could be the case so just assigning it to long waits while the Red Sox scored runs would be a mistake but I found it interesting.

Two Guys and Big Money

Two players, one position, two great big honkin’ contracts.

When the 2009 championship season ends left fielders Jason Bay and Matt Holliday will be free agents. With the three freest spending teams in the land; Red Sox, Yankees and Mets all in need of left fielders at the end of the year the potential for these two men to sign contracts with lots of zeroes and commas is pretty high.

Which one would be the preferred choice for the Red Sox? Let’s operate on the assumption that a minimum four year, and probably five year, deal is going to be required, if he is given the choice, who should Theo Epstein opt for? Many factors are in play here and worth looking at;

Age

Holliday DoB – 1/15/80
Bay DoB – 9/20/78

Advantage: Holliday – This is not insignificant. Holliday is a significantly younger player, a five year contract has him in his age 34 season in the final year. Bay would actually turn 36 at the end of that same season.

Power

Holliday – % of XBH of total hits – 39%
Bay – % of XBH of total hits – 43%

Advantage: Bay – Not a big difference but a difference nonetheless. Disturbingly Holliday has seen this number decline the last couple of years while Bay has seen it grow. So far in 2009 51% of Bay’s hits are XBH while only 31% of Holliday’s are.

Elephant in the Room

Holliday – Home OPS – 1.042, Road OPS - .801
Bay – Home OPS - .889, Road OPS - .898

Advantage: Bay – You can’t ignore this issue. Matt Holliday had the opportunity to slug away in the free atmosphere of Coors Field while Bay has hung out at sea level most of his career.

That has changed in 2009 though as Holliday has gone to cavernous Oakland. This year his home (.795) and road (.783) OPS have been similar though both reminiscent of the player outside of Coors.

Life is never that simple and Holliday had excellent years his final two seasons in Colorado with a road OPS of .860 in ’07 and .892 in ’08 so that should be part of the equation.

Athleticism

Holliday – 75/95 SB
Bay – 61/73 SB

Holliday – 4.4 UZR/150 (a defensive measurement)
Bay – (9.8) UZR/150 (parenthesis indicate negative number here)

Advantage: Holliday – There is much more to athleticism than the ability to steal a base or play defense but I think this is instructive. Holliday generally rates as a marginally above average defender while Bay usually rates as very poor dating back to his days in Pittsburgh.

Beyond that, while there is no way to quantify it, watching the two of them Holliday is the better athlete by a fair amount. Bay is quick and runs hard but Holliday has the same attributes and seems to be more fluid in his movements.

Athleticism is important because the more athletic a player is, the better he will age. It’s not about being fit as much as the natural ability. Think of David Wells who while always overweight was actually quite athletic and had a lengthy career.

Ground Ball Rate Trend – (2006-2009)

Holliday – 45%, 44%, 46%, 48%
Bay – 38%, 37%, 38%, 36%

Advantage: Bay - It’s a little thing but Holliday lifts the ball into the air less frequently than Bay and his trend is marginally upward which is not great for a power hitter. This is important because a home run hitter isn’t going to hit many home runs if he doesn’t put the ball skyward.

Conclusion

Advantage: Push

I have to confess, I made a basic mistake in working on this piece. I came into it with a conclusion in mind and that conclusion was that Matt Holliday was the better player and better signing long term.

Going through this made me re-consider that a bit. The ground ball thing threw me and Holliday’s performance this year is obviously not what he had in mind a year before free agency.

Having said all that I’m not entirely sold on Bay either. He strikes me as a player who is not going to age well. I don’t believe he is particularly athletic and while he may represent an upgrade defensively over Manny Ramirez that does not mean he is good out there.

In the end I think it is important to remember that Bay may be the Sox best bet simply by virtue of accessibility. If they can get a deal done with him before season’s end a bird in the hand is certainly worth two in the bush.

I don’t think there is enough to choose between these two players to make a convincing case that either player is the superior choice. Gun to my head I’m still taking my chances on Matt Holliday though. For me the decisive factor is the age. I think that 16 month difference is going to be a pretty big deal on the back end of the contract.

But having looked closely at both players, I’m not as certain of that choice as I was an hour ago.

Game 83 Recap/Game 84 Preview

OAK – 100 010 000 – 2 – 7 – 0
BOS – 022 001 00x – 5 – 9 – 1

The Sox evened up their home stand at two wins and two losses with a grinding 5-2 victory over the descendents of Connie Mack. It wasn’t a particularly pretty victory but the sun always shines and the beer is always cold when the local nine get a win.

- Josh Beckett looked very good. 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER doesn’t tell the story. The A’s really looked uncomfortable for most of the game except for Ryan Sweeney’s outstanding at bat in the fifth that threatened the complexion of the game.

After the first two were out Ryan Sweeney had an outstanding at bat seeing ten pitches, doubling and later scoring. Instead of ending the fifth at 62-65 pitches Beckett was at 81 pitches and basically lost an inning of work.

The Sox caught a break though in that inning. I felt the Oakland third base coach erred in not sending Ellis home on the double by Kennedy. Ellis was already around third when Green caught the ball and I thought Ellis had a fighting chance to beat the play and with two outs felt the gamble was worthwhile.

Beckett seemed to have as good a fastball as we’ve seen him have all season long spotting it well with good velocity. He really should have been through the seventh easily but for the Youkilis error and the off-the-plate chopper by Ellis that made things squirrelly and forced Okajima in.

- The two run single by Varitek in the third inning was the big blow in the game. It was not crushed, just a chopper that just squeaked over Eveland's mitt and between the infielders but it did the job. I felt that with the Sox having their way with Eveland to have let him get through the third inning with just two runs allowed would have been a real squander.

- The Sox followed that up by flashing the leather in the fourth inning. First there was a nice combination as Green made a nice play up the middle then his throw to first was a tweener and Bates made as nice a pick as you’ll ever see. Then Youkilis hustled in to field Holliday’s bouncer before it went foul and made a strong throw to get the big left fielder.

- I agreed with Terry Francona’s bullpen management in this one. While Beckett got a bit of a raw deal in the 7th I think bringing in Okajima to face Kennedy was the right move then going to Masterson for the three righties in the eighth was equally proper.

Good: Just a tip of the cap to Terry Francona and the Sox’ training staff. In the second inning Jack Cust seemed to jam his groin muscle beating out an infield hit and neither Geren nor the Oakland trainer came to check on him. The Sox staff always checks on the player in that situation which I think is appropriate.

Bad: The Sox should have made this a lot more comfortable with some timely hitting and better work on the bases. I felt Varitek flubbed the play in the second when he got tagged out on the unusual 6-3 double play that brought home the second run. All he had to do in that situation was either stop and force Cabrera to run at him or run Cabrera (who was in the baseline and fair game) over. By trying to dodge the tag he allowed Orlando to tag him then complete the double play.

Beyond that the Sox could have had a much bigger third inning than just the two runs and even the sixth was a little anti-climactic. Then in the seventh why on earth were the Sox not running the contact play? Bay would have scored easily if he was going on contact on Varitek’s grounder. With one out and the bottom of the order up the contact play is absolutely the correct decision.

Ugly: If you didn’t see it Jason Varitek delivered a single to right on a lunging, desperation swing in the 2nd inning. “Ugly” doesn’t begin to describe the grotesqueness of the swing but a hit’s a hit.
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Game 84

Opponent: Oakland Athletics

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers: Tim Wakefield (10-3, 4.30) vs. Trevor Cahill (5-7, 4.55)

Randomness: A fair amount of discussion today about Roy Halladay on the heels of an interview with Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi where he said he would “listen to offers.” Ricciardi was pretty clear that he was not actively shopping Halladay but of course 99% of the reporting focused on the “listen to offers” part. In fairness, while it's a long way from "listen to offers" to "willing to deal him" it's also a long way from "listen to offers" to "absolutely not."

If Halladay does become available the Sox would be foolish not to get involved and I suspect Theo Epstein knows that. However, the likelihood of Halladay being traded is pretty remote as the asking price will be astronomical and I suspect that even if he is traded for PR reasons it is likely that the Blue Jays would not deal him in the division.

I've always felt this was silly. Why won't you make a trade within your division? Yes, I get the PR aspect of it but the object of a trade is to make your team better. If you do that then the PR will take care of itself and don't worry about what happens to the other team. If you think the trade is going to be better for your opposite number than it will be for you then you probably shouldn't be making the trade.

I will be stunned if Halladay is traded in-season though. It's tough for a trade of this magnitude to come together. Other than the Manny deal (which had it's own complications) I can't remember an in-season trade of a player of Halladay's character in a long time. The last one I can think of is when the Blue Jays dealt the reigning Cy Young winner David Cone to the Yankees for three guys who never amounted to anything.

All Star Roster - National League

I looked at the AL All Stars yesterday, today let’s have a look at the NL team. Just a reminder of the method I use; first, the way I rank players;

1. Star having a great year
2. Star having a good year
3. Good player having a great year
4. Random dude having ridiculous year

Then, filling out the roster is a pretty straightforward system;

1. Fan voting – The fans do a pretty good job in my opinion and it’s a game for the fans so stick with it
2. Pick the best player at each position not voted in by the fans – This ensures that the best player at each position goes to the game and unless the fans really mess up ensures the top two at each position go
3. Pick the best player on each team if he hasn’t already met criteria one or two
4. Fill in the rest

Step One – Fan Voting:

1B – Albert Pujols – Cardinals
2B – Chase Utley – Phillies
3B – David Wright – Mets
SS – Hanley Ramirez – Marlins
LF – Ryan Braun – Brewers
CF – Carlos Beltran – Mets
RF – Raul Ibanez – Phillies
C – Yadier Molina - Cardinals

Step Two – Best player not voted in by fans at each position

1B – Prince Fielder - Brewers
2B – Brandon Phillips – Reds
3B – Pablo Sandoval – Giants
SS – Cristian Guzman – Nationals
LF – Adam Dunn – Nationals
CF – Matt Kemp – Dodgers
RF – Brad Hawpe – Rockies
C – Brian McCann – Braves
SP – Danny Haren - Diamondbacks
RP – Francisco Rodriguez - Mets

Step Three – Best player on each team (italics indicates already on roster)

Phillies – Utley
Marlins – Ramirez
Braves – McCann
Mets – Wright
Nationals – Adam Dunn (not on roster, explained below)
Cardinals – Pujols
Brewers – Fielder
Cubs – Derrek Lee
Reds – Phillips (Votto just hasn’t played quite enough for me)
Astros – Lance Berkman
Pirates – Freddy Sanchez
Dodgers – Kemp
Giants – Tim Lincecum
Rockies – Hawpe
Padres – Adrian Gonzalez
Diamondbacks - Haren

Step Four - Rest of roster – So far we have a roster of;

So far we have a roster total of 22. We need to fill in ten more slots to leave things open for the “33rd Man” online vote. We need a total of 12 pitchers so of our ten slots nine have to be pitchers.

SP (need five more minimum) – Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana
RP – Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton
OF – Justin Upton

So let’s review our roster;

1B – Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Derrek Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Lance Berkman
2B – Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips, Freddy Sanchez, Orlando Hudson
3B – David Wright, Pablo Sandoval
SS – Hanley Ramirez, Cristian Guzman
OF – Raul Ibanez, Ryan Braun, Carlos Beltran, Brad Hawpe, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp
C – Yadier Molina, Brian McCann
SP – Danny Haren, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, Johan Santana
RP – Francisco Rodriguez, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton

Conclusion

That’s my team. Once again there are some differences with the actual roster. I feel the actual NL roster has some pretty questionable selections. Jason Marquis, Ted Lilly, Hunter Pence and Ryan Howard are all poor selections in my opinion. Howard is clearly a poor choice while Lilly and Marquis are obviously inferior to Yovani Gallardo. Pence in my opinion is a lesser player than Kemp by a considerable amount.

You'll notice that one player listed as the "best player on his team" - Adam Dunn - was left off the roster. In my opinion Guzman has been good enough when combining his offense and defense to warrant his inclusion as the reserve shortstop. I still would have taken Dunn but could not in good conscience take two players from a team as bad as Washington so I left Dunn off the roster and added Orlando Hudson.

Frankly, I feel bad leaving Ryan Franklin off the roster as he has had an excellent season. He loses out because I feel that he is a lesser pitcher than Bell/Broxton but he truly has had an excellent season.

Game 82 Recap/Game 83 Preview

OAK – 000 401 001 – 6 – 15 – 1
BOS – 000 000 000 – 0 – 2 – 1

The Sox dropped the opening game of their three game set with Oakland on Monday night. John Smoltz had a rough night but Oakland’s 21 year old lefty Brett Anderson was dominant.

Like many young pitchers with talent Anderson hasn’t quite harnessed his stuff yet. He has alternated very good outings (six starts of two of fewer runs allowed) with very bad outings (seven starts with five or more runs allowed).

Nothing makes me as crazy as giving runs back after a big inning. All credit to Anderson who struck out the side (thanks in part to an awful call on a 3-2 pitch to Youk) after the A’s scored four times in the top of the 4th.

I'm not 100% certain I'm correct but Anderson is the first rookie to shutout the Sox since Orlando Hernandez did it on September 14, 1998 and the first rookie lefty to do so since Jose Rosado of the Royals on July 30, 1996.

It reminded me a bit of Felix Hernandez' brilliant performance in Daisuke's home debut in 2007. On a night when the story was all about Nomar and to a lesser extent Smoltz, Anderson really seized the day.

- Nomar Garciaparra had a very nice night in his return to Fenway. He was visibly emotional upon his introduction in the 2nd but delivered two hits and an RBI on the day.

For an organization accused of being heartless the Sox and NESN did the right thing tonight and coming back after just one commercial to capture the moment and the scene when Nomar was introduced for his first at bat to start the second inning. It was a great moment.

I was a little disappointed in the crowd’s tepid response when Garciaparra was lifted for a pinch runner in the 8th. I suspect that was due to the score more than anything else. And either my #5 jersey has shrunk or I have expanded in the last five years.

- This was easily the worst outing for Smoltz in his short tenure with the Sox. Even in his first outing he pitched pretty well after the first inning. On Monday night Smoltz really didn’t have anything working. The first inning featured two singles and a walk but a timely double play bailed him out and he never seemed to be hitting his spots.

- Having said that his defense let him down in the fourth. A double and two singles plated a run and left men at first and second with no outs. After a strikeout he had a chance to get out of big trouble relatively cheaply and appeared to have done so on a double play ball to Green at second.

Green made a dreadful feed high and wide to Lugo and the Sox only got the out at second. Smoltz then made some bad pitches to Ellis (two run double) and Kennedy (RBI single) to turn the one run inning into a four run inning.

- Daniel Bard pitched a very impressive seventh striking out two of the three men he faced. He threw 18 pitches so I understand why Tito lifted him but I questioned bringing Ramirez into the game?

So I looked up the numbers and actually Ramon Ramirez hasn’t been worked especially hard. He is on pace for about 70-71 appearances and 70 IP which is what he did last year. Baseball-Reference also tracks how often a guy comes in in High, Medium and Low Leverage situations and his High Leverage appearances are up a bit but not much (18 in half a season this year, 33 all year last year).

Long story short, while it feels like Ramon Ramirez is in there every day he actually hasn’t been overused.

- Congratulations to Aaron Bates on making his MLB debut. He is the first to wear #50 for the Sox since Mike Timlin and the 16th player overall to do so.

Good: Spectacular defense from Jason Bay in the 8th who made a wonderful leaping catch at the wall then threw to second for the double play. On the replay it was pretty clear that Bay mistimed his leap though whether or not he caught the ball was unclear, he may have trapped it against the wall.

Bad: Dustin Pedroia was in the starting lineup but left the ballpark around 5:30 due to deal with a “personal matter.” I don’t know what it is at this point but that sounds like it can’t be very good at all. Best wishes to Dustin and the hope that whatever it is has passed.

Ugly: If this season ends with the Sox not reaching the playoffs this stretch of baseball may be what we look back on. After ripping it up against the first place teams the Sox have given back their gains during that stretch going (so far) 3-4 against the relatively poor competition of Baltimore, Seattle and Oakland.
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Game 83

Opponent: Oakland Athletics

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers: Josh Beckett (9-3, 3.67) vs. Dallas Braden (6-7, 3.13) - mlb.com says it's Braden, Don Orsillo said in the ninth that the A's have not named a starter for tomorrow yet so I don't know what is going on.

Randomness: For those of you who have not heard to add Aaron Bates to the 40 man roster the Sox moved Jed Lowrie to the 60 man DL as players on the 60 day DL do not count toward the 40 man limit.

For now this isn’t an issue but when Lowrie is ready to return the Sox will need to make room. I would not be surprised if the Sox end up moving Matsuzaka or Van Every to the 60 day DL at that point. These moves are all retroactive to the last day a player played so it shouldn’t cause the Sox a problem.

Reader Manny Mota inquired as to how many people have played shortstop since Nomar left. Well, I’m here for Manny and anyone else interested.

There have been 16 different men who stepped on the diamond wearing a Red Sox jersey at shortstop since Nomar last graced Fenway’s diamond. The first was Ricky Gutierrez the night of July 31, 2004. Four of them were at Fenway on Monday night; Nick Green, Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia and Orlando Cabrera. The full list;

Julio Lugo – 258 games including Monday night’s game
Alex Cora – 176
Edgar Renteria – 153
Alex Gonzalez – 111
Orlando Cabrera – 57
Jed Lowrie – 54
Nick Green – 53
Ramon Vasquez – 12
Pokey Reese – 9
Dustin Pedroia – 6
Gil Velazquez – 5
Ricky Gutierrez – 3
Hanley Ramirez – 2
Royce Clayton – 1
Mark Bellhorn – 1
Alejandro Machado – 1

Aaron Bates

With the injury to Jeff Bailey the Sox have promoted Aaron Bates to the big club and put him in the lineup at first base batting ninth for tonight’s game versus Oakland.

Bates is an interesting one. After being an 8th round selection of the Marlins in 2005 he returned to school for one more year and was selected in the 3rd round by the Sox in 2006 as compensation for the Dodgers signing Bill Mueller that off-season.

The big right-handed swinging first baseman is kind of a one trick pony. Whatever value he might have is heavily wrapped up in his bat. He’ll take a walk but he will strike out quite a bit and it looks like he doesn’t fear the baseball as he has been plunked 58 times in three years. I don’t know much about him defensively but ten errors at first base a year ago does not suggest a guy who is going to bring back memories of George Scott pickin’ it.

He has advanced slowly through the Sox’ system with his finest effort being a wind-aided 24 homers at Lancaster in 2007. He has hit pretty well outside of that though without quite that level of power though his .910 OPS at Portland (a pitchers’ park) is very impressive. In 24 games at Pawtucket he has struggled.

It looks like he is a fly ball hitter as he doesn’t ground into many double plays (though I don’t know how many chances he has had) which is what you’d expect from a hitter with his profile. My recollection is that the scouts who have seen him really like his power and the Sox are sort of letting him gradually move through the system. Sox Prospects.com says that he has shortened his stroke for 2009 and that while he “hits well to the opposite field” he “can struggle with breaking balls and had historically reached for a lot of balls outside of the zone.”

All Star Roster - American League

(You can find the weekend recap here.)

The respective All Star teams were announced on Sunday. I figure I’ll join the rest of humanity in naming my personal All Star team. My system is fairly simple, I rank players in the following order;

1. Star having a great year
2. Star having a good year
3. Good player having a great year
4. Random dude having ridiculous year

Ranking players in that order is step one. Then, filling out the roster is a pretty straightforward system;

1. Fan voting – The fans do a pretty good job in my opinion and it’s a game for the fans so stick with it
2. Pick the best player at each position not voted in by the fans – This ensures that the best player at each position goes to the game and unless the fans really mess up ensures the top two at each position go
3. Pick the best player on each team if he hasn’t already met criteria one or two
4. Fill in the rest

What this approach would do if followed by MLB would ensure that the best player at each position goes and the best player on each team goes. I like this approach rather than the usual “let’s take the best pitcher on a bad team even if there are five guys better than him” approach.

And for what it’s worth I like the rule requiring every team be represented. With 33 (up one this year) roster slots there is no reason this can’t be done. Let’s look at the rosters starting with the American League today. We’ll do the National League tomorrow;

Step One – Fan Voting:

1B – Mark Teixeira – Yankees
2B – Dustin Pedroia – Red Sox
3B – Evan Longoria - Rays
SS – Derek Jeter – Yankees
LF – Jason Bay – Red Sox
CF – Josh Hamilton - Rangers
RF – Ichiro Suzuki – Mariners
C – Joe Mauer – Twins

Step Two – Best player not voted in by fans at each position

1B – Kevin Youkilis – Red Sox
2B – Ian Kinsler - Rangers
3B – Chone Figgins – Angels
SS – Jason Bartlett – Rays (no one else with pedigree, SS is really weak this year)
OF – Carl Crawford – Rays
OF – Torii Hunter – Angels
OF – Johnny Damon - Yankees
C – Jorge Posada – Yankees
DH – Travis Hafner – Indians (A DH should be selected even in years when the game is in an NL park)
SP – Roy Halladay – Blue Jays
RP – Mariano Rivera – Yankees

Step Three – Best player on each team (italics indicates already on roster)

Red Sox – Youkilis
Yankees – Jeter
Blue Jays – Halladay
Rays – Longoria
Orioles – Adam Jones
Tigers – Miguel Cabrera
Twins – Mauer
White Sox – Mark Buehrle (Buehrle is officially certified a Freddy Fave)
Royals – Zack Greinke
Indians – Cliff Lee
Rangers – Kinsler
Angels – Hunter
Mariners – Felix Hernandez
Athletics – Matt Holliday

Step Four - Rest of roster;

So far we have a roster total of 25. We need to fill in seven more slots to leave things open for the “33rd Man” online vote. We need a total of 12 pitchers so of our seven slots six have to be pitchers.

SP (need 2 more minimum) – Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander
RP – Jonathan Papelbon, Bobby Jenks, Joe Nathan
C – Victor Martinez - Indians

So let’s review our roster;

1B – Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera
2B – Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia
3B – Evan Longoria, Chone Figgins
SS – Derek Jeter, Jason Bartlett
OF – Jason Bay, Josh Hamilton, Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter, Johnny Damon, Adam Jones, Matt Holliday
C – Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez
SP – Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Mark Buehrle, Zack Greinke, Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander
RP – Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Bobby Jenks, Joe Nathan

Conclusion

That’s my team. There are several differences though to be honest I see very little to quibble with on the AL team. There are a few players I feel don’t really belong but the only egregiously bad selection is Josh Hamilton and his sub-.300 OBP.

But on the whole I feel the American League All Star team is a quality group of representatives who can justifiably feel proud of their inclusion. We'll do the National League tomorrow afternoon.

Weekend Recap

The Sox had a frustrating weekend against the Mariners dropping two straight in their final at bat before staging an exciting comeback on Sunday afternoon.

Friday

- The Sox came out aggressively against Hernandez and it worked well for a couple of innings. The King is too talented a pitcher to let chances go by the board the way they did leaving runners in scoring position in 1st, 2nd and 4th.

- George Kottaras had a good ballgame for himself. He made a couple of nice throws, one on a play where he really had no chance and then once in the tenth on the strike ‘em out/throw ‘em out double play and of course slammed his first MLB home run.

- Ramon Ramirez really hurt himself. He had Franklyn Gutierrez set up 1-2 and made a very hittable pitch on the leadoff single. Then, with the 0-2 count on Rob Johnson he caught a lot of the plate allowing Johnson to double to right. In that situation he needs to be way up and out of the zone or down in the dirt, he executed poorly.

Some talk ensued that Ramirez hasn’t been as good as he was early on. While that’s true, no one is that good, he has been pretty good. What has hurt him is his control has gotten away from him a bit as he has been throwing far fewer strikes in the last month or so. He is striking people out at a decent clip (about 20% over the last month) which is a good sign.

- I felt Francona got a little quick with the hook in this game. Delcarmen only threw eight pitches in the ninth and I didn’t see the need to lift him. Then Papelbon only threw ten in the tenth and I felt he could have gone another inning.

Saturday

- I’m not really sure of the competition for Comeback Player of the Year but Brad Penny is putting himself on the list I would think. Since getting knocked around by the Indians his ERA is just 3.68 and he has seven quality starts in twelve efforts plus three other starts where he allowed three or fewer runs.

- Rocco Baldelli made a poor base running play in the sixth. With runners on the corners and no outs it was inexcusable for him to be caught off on the grounder to the mound. His only job in that situation is to make 100% certain that the ball gets past the pitcher. He ran the Sox out of a scoring opportunity.

- In the ninth even had Pedroia caught Woodward’s pop up with dive I don’t think it would have mattered. I think Balentien probably still would have been able to tag up and score on the play, it was a bad break for the Sox.

Sunday

- Jon Lester played with fire most of the afternoon on Sunday. The Mariners did not have a 1-2-3 inning in the first five innings. Still, he deserved a better fate as Youkilis really hurt him in the fourth.

With first and second and one out Johjima hit a chopper to Youkilis. From my seat on the first base line I felt Youk’s best bet was to run to third then throw to first. Instead he chose to throw to second and appeared to slip on the throw making a low throw. Even had Pedroia caught it (which he should have) the inning still would have been alive.

- It was just the second time this year that Ortiz had put a ball in play on a 3-0 count and it worked like a charm. You really have to just put away the first two months of Ortiz’ season to evaluate him. Since finally hitting that first home run he has a solid .792 OPS and has been a key contributor once again.

- Justin Masterson looked outstanding. He has bounced back from his nightmare on Tuesday night with some good outings. I was behind the plate for the eighth and he was absolutely painting the black.

- It was a wonderful moment at Fenway when they announced the All Stars. They announced Bay, Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett and Papelbon and then as soon as Carl Beane said “and making his first All Star Game appearance” the crowd erupted and 38,000 stood as one to salute a man who has been everything we want our athletes to be.

It was every bit as exciting and emotional a moment as David Ortiz’ first home run back in May. As would be expected, Wake just gave a couple of humble waves from his spot in the dugout.

Good: Congratulations to George Kottaras on his first MLB home run Friday night. After a tough April he has a .758 OPS with just the one homer but eight doubles and a .193 Isolated Power.

Bad: Sympathies go out to Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez, the AL All Star catchers. No one who saw Rich Gedman go to battle with Charlie Hough’s knuckler in the 1986 All Star Game will forget the helplessness with which he fought. It was similar to Varitek in Game Five of the 2004 ALCS. While he was charged with just one passed ball he really had a rough time.

Ugly: Takashi Saito in the ninth on Saturday was brutal. You just have to throw strikes in that situation.
************************************************************************
Game 82

Opponent: Oakland Athletics

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers: John Smoltz (0-1, 6.00) vs. Brett Anderson (4-7, 5.45)

Randomness: It has been four years, 345 days since Nomar Garciaparra popped up to Derek Jeter in the 8th inning of a 9-6 win over the Yankees. He has played 434 games since then (including two as a member of the Red Sox in Baltimore) but none of them at Fenway Park.

He has hit .287 with 50 home runs and 241 RBI in that time. He has been a part of three different teams; Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and Oakland A’s and hit the walk-off homer the day the Dodgers slammed four consecutive home runs in the ninth inning against San Diego.

During his time with the Red Sox he was a thrilling player to watch. While it wasn’t the 1967 revival he and Pedro Martinez were the combination that re-energized baseball in New England in the late-90s. For a time he was beloved like few athletes in this region’s great sporting history.

The numbers above don’t recall the greatness he flashed with the Sox though. He peppers the all time records list in Red Sox history;

.372 avg. – 2000 – 4th in team history
.323 avg. – Career – 4th
.553 slugging – Career – 5th
.923 OPS – Career – 6th
209 hits – 1997 – 7th
365 total bases – 1997 – 8th
56 doubles – 2002 – 2nd
51 doubles – 2000 – 6th
279 doubles – Career – 9th
85 XBH – 1997, 2002 – 8th
507 XBH – Career – 8th

When Carl Beane announces his name Monday night I will be standing and applauding in my living room wearing a now too small #5 Red Sox jersey and remembering the good times, not the bad.

Mid-Season Review

As the Sox play game number 81 let's dispense with the usual Sunday Notes and instead take a brief look at each team in Major League Baseball at the midway point;

AL East

Boston Red Sox

Good – Nick Green – Green has been a life vest in the choppy seas of shortstop for Terry Francona’s sailors (see how I brought that together? Now that’s writing!). Impressively he seems not to be slacking off but to be improving as his defense has become solidified.

Bad – Daisuke Matsuzaka – His first two seasons weren’t Japanese Johan stuff but they were good for the 16th best ERA+ in baseball. So far 2009 has been an utter washout however.

Ugly – Mike Lowell – The Sox disabled the third baseman with hip related problems.

Outlook – Assuming they can stop blowing nine run leads they will be a 90+ win team and in the AL East dogfight to the end. They are in my opinion the team with the highest likelihood of breaking it open.

New York Yankees

Good – Brett Gardner – The speedy centerfielder has done a fine job of getting on base and generally playing solid defense for the Bombers. He doesn’t get the press of his Boston counterpart but so far has been every bit the contributor in 2009.

Bad – Chien-Ming Wang – His Bo Derek ERA (10) is probably not what he had in mind when he showed up at Spring Training this year. Maybe single-handedly responsible for the Yankees being in second place.

Ugly – Bench – The bench remains Brian Cashman’s white whale. Once again the Yankees find themselves with limited depth a problem that hurt while Rodriguez was out and may rear its ugly head again though I like their acquisition of Eric Hinske.

Outlook – Like the Red Sox they are a team that should be in this thing ‘til the end. Their aged roster may be the only thing that holds them back.

Tampa Bay Rays

Good – Jason Bartlett – The slick fielding shortstop has been raking in 2009 hitting over .360 and adding some power to boot.

Bad – B.J. Upton – The centerfielder was a star in the ALCS and was touted by many (including me) to be a breakout candidate in 2009. So far the only thing he is breaking is fantasy teams all over America.

Ugly – Andy Sonnanstine – The righty with the low K rate survived in 2008 but so far has struggled mightily in 2009 with an ERA over 6.

Outlook – The third team in the three headed AL East monster should be right there at the end.

Toronto Blue Jays

Good – Ricky Romero – For all the talk of Aaron Hill Romero, famously drafted ahead of Troy Tulowitzki to the chagrin of Blue Jay fans, has been a breakout player so far. His sub-3.00 ERA and nearly 7 IP per start have been a stabilizer in the Blue Jays’ revamped rotation

Bad – Travis Snider – The slugging left-hander has not put together the Rookie of the Year campaign predicted by so many (hi how are ya’?)

Ugly – Vernon Wells – Yet another year of high priced mediocrity from the overrated Wells. He is rumored to be on the trading block though the expectation is that no team will take on the contract.

Outlook – The Jays had a terrific first half but the offense likely won’t keep churning along like it has and they should fade

Baltimore Orioles

Good – Luke Scott – The big DH acquired in the Tejada deal has found himself a home. He has established himself as one of the top DHs in baseball and may be ripe for a Matt Stairs-like career.

Bad – Jeremy Guthrie – After two strong seasons the Oriole righty has struggled through a distressing 2009.

Ugly – Matt Wieters – Apparently Wieters is human, who knew? After all the hype he is finding the big leagues a bit tougher than the talking heads forecast though the occasional flash of genius is clearly there.

Outlook – Some nice things are happening in Baltimore but it’s a long road in this tough division.

AL Central

Detroit Tigers

Good – Justin Verlander – The 26 year old righty has rebounded from a frustrating 2008 to shine in 2009. He is averaging nearly 11K/9IP and establishing himself as a star for a long time to come.

Bad – Placido Polanco – The steady infielder has been a disappointment in 2009 with an OBP below .310 though the Tigers continue to be having a fine season.

Ugly – Dontrelle Willis – The situation with Willis continues to vex and frustrate the Tigers and baseball fans everywhere. Things finally collapsed for D-Train with an eight walk effort against the Pirates. He seems lost right now.

Outlook – The Tigers have strong pitching and a deep lineup and should remain at or near the top of the Central throughout the season. In my opinion the division is theirs for the taking.

Chicago White Sox

Good – Mark Buehrle – The southpaw is turning it yet another strong season. He is money in the bank for Ozzie Guillen’s squad.

Bad – Young Infielders – The White Sox have tried to find an infield anchored by youngsters Chris Getz and Josh Fields but so far that has not worked out. In fairness Gordon Beckham is doing alright so far in place of Fields.

Ugly – Centerfield – “Put me in coach, I’m ready to play” sang John Fogerty. So far Dewayne Wise, Brett Lillebridge and Brian Anderson have all been anything but ready however.

Outlook – The ChiSox are updating the roster on the fly. If they can find the bats they have the pitching to contend.

Minnesota Twins

Good – No Ordinary Joes – Joe Mauer is torching the ball with a 1.133 OPS, closer Joe Nathan is at it again with 21 saves, reliever Jose Mijares has a 2.35 ERA in a set up role and backup catcher Jose Morales has an OPS of .839.

Bad – Below Ordinary Joe – Joe Crede has disappointed the Twins with an OBP just above .300.

Ugly – Francisco Liriano – He’s not named Joe but he’s been a disappointment. His ERA is well over five though he’s just 25 so it’s not cut bait time with him yet.

Outlook – I question if the Twin offense can maintain the strength they will need to remain at the top of the division in 2009.

Kansas City Royals

Good – Alberto Callaspo – The final out of Jon Lester’s 2008 no hitter has done a fine job in 2009 hitting nearly .300 with over 20 doubles already.

Bad – Juan Cruz – The off-season acquisition expected to solidify the bullpen has struggled mightily so far.

Ugly – Banned! – The Royals had the audacity to ban a well-regarded blogger named Rany Jazzeryli from Kaufmann Stadium due to Jazzeryli’s criticism of the training staff. Coco Crisp and Mike Aviles were not available for comment.

Outlook – It just is not working for the Royals right now. Dayton Moore has not demonstrated that he is the guy to take them forward.

Cleveland Indians

Good – Comebacks – Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez have rebounded from miserable seasons a year ago.

Bad – Grady Sizemore – Injuries and ineffectiveness have marred the season for the exciting centerfielder. A .719 OPS is well below his expected level of performance.

Ugly – The Stars of ’07 – The 2007 Indians were 27 outs from a World Series berth largely due to Fausto Carmona and Rafael Perez. So far they have been awful in 2009 with both having ERAs well over 7.00

Outlook – The firesale is on in Cleveland but what do they have to sell? Martinez is a guy to keep and build around on offense and Lee is the same for the rotation. The decision to not play Laporta regularly has confounded me.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Good - Patience – The Angels were patient in the off-season and were rewarded with a fine season from Bobby Abreu so far. Then during the season they patiently waited out injuries to the pitching staff and have returned to their accustomed place atop the division.

Bad – Howie Kendrick – The once touted prospect was a key in 2008 but has slumped badly in 2009. A very similar player to Robinson Cano I would expect him to bounceback.

Ugly – Tragedy – The tragic death of Nick Adenhart remains as unfathomable and frustrating as it was the day it happened.

Outlook – In a weak division, they are the team to beat.

Texas Rangers

Good – Kevin Millwood – The 34 year old has anchored the staff with an ERA under 3.00 so far.

Bad – Get On Base – A good hitting team the Rangers are undisciplined and are 11th in the AL in OBP.

Ugly – Catching Prospects – The glut of catching has been killing their trade value so far with Saltalamacchia (.676 OPS), Teagarden (.574) and Max Ramirez (.640 at AAA) not hitting at all.

Outlook – A nice first half but I fear another second half slide is in the cards.

Seattle Mariners

Good – Russell Branyan – Given the chance to play every day the Three True Outcome hero has rewarded manager Don Wakamatsu with an OPS near 1.000.

Bad – Yuniesky Betancourt – The shortstop’s rep is as a defensive player but he has been a tremendous disappointment in that regard and his offense remains inept.

Ugly – Carlos Silva – The 2008 free agent acquisition continues to be a colossal bust for the Mariners.

Outlook – Anytime The King pitches they can win but beyond that it is a team that is pretty exploitable.

Oakland Athletics

Good – Young Pitching – The young staff has come together well with Vin Mazzaro, Josh Outman (now disabled for Tommy John surgery) and Dallas Braden all pitching well in the rotation while Andrew Bailey has become a strong reliever.

Bad – Off-Season Acquisitions – The A’s have gotten disappointing performances from some veteran acquisitions as Giambi, Cabrera and Garciaparra have all scuffled.

Ugly – Tommy John – It’s a big disappointment to see the talented Outman felled by an arm injury as he is a key component of the burgeoning staff.

Outlook – It’s all about development for this club. The pitching is coming together, even without Outman, but the offense needs a lot of work.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

Good – Raul Ibanez – What a year for the 37 year old with an OPS over 1.000. It’s not just a Citizens Bank Park effect as his OPS is over 1.000 both in home and road games.

Bad – Rotation – The Phils have seen their starters struggle mightily with Brett Myers 4.66 ERA being the best of the bunch among the group that started the season.

Ugly – Start and Finish – Philadelphia has seen their leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins have a dreadful season and their closer Brad Lidge be equally as poor.

Outlook – I feel there is more going wrong than going right with this team and expect the Phillies to be a tough team in the second half

Florida Marlins

Good – Josh Johnson – The underrated right-hander has become the rock of this rotation. Just 25 years old the future is bright.

Bad – Other Starters – Despite pitching in a good pitcher’s park the Marlins are 15th in the National League in runs allowed. This is largely due to the rotation’s struggles.

Ugly – Matt Lindstrom – The Marlin closer has been terrible with an ERA over 6.00. His control has been a real problem with 20 walks in 29 innings.

Outlook – One of the best run franchises in baseball the Marlins maintain competitiveness despite a lack of spending or fan support. Anchored by one of the best players in the game in Hanley Ramirez if the rotation can settle down this team could be a shocking October entrant.

Atlanta Braves

Good – Trades – The Braves have found the trade market to their liking with 2008 acquisition Jair Jurrjens and 2009 pick up Javier Vazquez leading a strong rotation.

Bad – Outfield – What a horrendous outfield. For some reason Matt Diaz remains a part time player though the acquisition of McLouth has helped.

Ugly – Jeff Francoeur – The insistence on playing the helpless Francoeur is an offensive drain of historical proportions as he is on pace to become just the 8th outfielder in 17 years with an OPS+ of 65 or less.

Outlook – The Braves intrigue me. With McLouth replacing Schafer and the obvious move of Francoeur to Diaz waiting to be made this team has an easy improvement ahead of it. With their strong pitching they can contend.

New York Mets

Good – Francisco Rodriguez – K-Rod has done what he was acquired to do locking down games (assuming infielders don’t drop pop flies) regularly.

Bad – In House Starters – The rotation was expected to feature Mike Pelfrey and John Maine producing behind Santana but so far they have not pitched as well as the Mets had hoped.


Ugly – Injury – With injuries to Delgado, Reyes and Beltran it is tough to be too critical of this team. Take three of the four best position players out of any lineup and you can expect some struggles.

Outlook – If Beltran and Reyes can come back this team will be there right through the end. Without contributions from those two I find it hard to believe this team can contend.

Washington Nationals

Good – Nick Johnson – It is great to see the talented 1st baseman staying healthy. To no one’s surprise he is producing the way one would expect him to.

Bad – Defense – The worst Defensive Efficiency in baseball is part of the reason for the putrid pitching staff.

Ugly – Too Much – Oh where to begin. From the off-season shenanigans of players with fake names and Jim Bowden to the apparent lack of a development plan this organization has been a disaster throughout their arrival in the Capital.

Outlook – Not good, nope, not good at all. I don’t think they’ll challenge the ’62 Mets but 110 losses is certainly “attainable.”

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Good – Albert Pujols – Taken for granted but maybe having his finest season. An OPS over 1.200 and an outside shot at Bonds’ single season HR record. Still the best player in the game and any other answer to that question is just wrong.

Bad – Mark DeRosa – The acquisition of DeRosa was a smart one but seeing him injured almost immediately was a disappointment.

Ugly – Ryan Franklin – It’s just an embarrassment to the game of baseball to see a former steroid cheat helping a contending team. For shame St. Louis, for shame. (is that the appropriate level of outrage or does a player have to be a future Hall of Famer to be an embarrassment?)

Outlook – I said in the Spring that a team with LaRussa at the helm and Pujols in the lineup had a puncher’s chance. I don’t necessarily buy the Cardinals as true contenders but they are getting good pitching and they are in first at the midway point.

Milwaukee Brewers

Good – Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo has been an Ace in the truest sense of the word for the Brewers this year picking up where Sabathia left off.

Bad – Left Side – The left side of the infield has been a bust with Bill Hall and J.J. Hardy sporting OPS below .700. Casey McGehee has steadied third base lately though.

Ugly – The Rest – After Gallardo the rotation has struggled. An acquisition will be needed if they can’t turn it around.

Outlook – Without stabilizing the rotation I can’t see them contending through the season. If they add another pitcher, the division is takeable.

Chicago Cubs

Good – Kosuke Fukudome – After a tough 2008 Fukudome has put together the type of season the Cubbies envisioned when they spent big money a year ago for the Japanese outfielder.

Bad – Rich Harden – No one has ever questioned the talent, just the health. So far in 2009 a 4.57 ERA has disappointed.

Ugly – Attitude – The Cubs have seen some attitude issues from the usual suspects of Zambrano and Bradley.

Outlook – I’m getting a 2004 Red Sox vibe from this team. Highly touted team frustrates for the first half while the manager and some players are criticized. While many predict this team to circle the drain soon I expect them to circle the wagons instead and charge to the division title in the second half. If Hendry is dumb enough to trade Zambrano, all best are off though.

Cincinnati Reds

Good – Joey Votto – The Reds handled the emotional issues with grace and dignity and Votto has sparkled with an OBP over .450.

Bad – Bronson Arroyo – Arroyo has gotten knocked around for much of the year. Despite his over .500 record he has been pretty poor.


Ugly – Adam Dunn Haters – For years many associated with the Reds enjoyed complaining about Adam Dunn. Well, Dunn has an OPS over .950 in Washington while the “best” Redleg outfielder is below .800.

Outlook – As long as the top teams scuffle this team is good enough to poke their way to 85 wins and contend. I expect the Cubs to get to 90 wins and hold off the Reds who should still cause problems.

Houston Astros

Good – Mike Hampton – Hampton has not been great or anything but that he is going to make his 14th start of the season this week is a tribute to his perseverance after making 31 starts in the last four years combined.

Bad – Kaz Matsui – Matsui has not been able to replicate his fine 2008 season. He will need to improve for the Astros to contend.

Ugly – Lance Berkman – Berkman has been exceptional, the ugly part is the lack of notoriety this great player receives.

Outlook – They aren’t terrible but neither are they particularly good. I expect them to slide back a bit in the second half.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Good – Zach Duke – The intriguing southpaw who dazzled as a 22 year old in 2005 has found his way back with a strong 2009 so far.

Bad – Ian Snell – The one-time poster child of the future has been a bust and is now plying his trade in AAA Indianapolis.

Ugly – 17 – Welcome to year 17 of sub-.500 baseball with no end in sight.

Outlook – Really nothing good to say here. There are no particularly high-end youngsters and while they will play hard 90+ losses seems to be the future.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Good – Young Pitchers – The Dodgers are 2nd in the NL in runs allowed because of 25 year old Chad Billingsley and 21 year old Clayton Kershaw in the rotation and 25 year old Jonathan Broxton in the bullpen.

Bad – Rafael Furcal – A little karmic payback if you ask Atlanta fans. After allegedly reneging on a deal with the Braves Furcal has had a rough go for Joe Torre.

Ugly – Manny Ramirez – While the team played better without him they scored over a run less per game while he was out. He will need to come back strong if the Dodgers are to maintain their big lead.

Outlook – The class of the division they have built enough of a cushion that even if the stumble a bit they should take the division easily.

San Francisco Giants

Good – Bullpen – While the high-profile starters get the ink the bullpen features seven relievers with ten innings and an ERA below 4.00.

Bad – Bengie Molina – Molina has really had a rough time with an OBP of .270. While he’s added some pop with double digit home runs but that OBP is unpleasant.

Ugly – Infield Offense – Other than the impressive Pablo Sandoval the Giants infield really features little offense.

Outlook – With this pitching staff I expect the Giants to remain in the Wild Card hunt throughout the season. If the Dodgers do fall off the Giants are the team best equipped to run them down though I don’t foresee that.

Colorado Rockies

Good – Chris Ianetta – The pride of Rhode Island is doing a fine job as the regular backstop for Jim Tracy. Always fun to see the local guys succeed.

Bad – Garrett Atkins – The free agent to be is effectively setting money on fire on a daily basis with his poor season.

Ugly – Huston We Have a Problem – Actually, Street is the one reliever who is not a problem but I really wanted to use the pun. The rest of the bullpen has had a tough time.

Outlook – If they can get something out of the bullpen they could jump in but I suspect they will be on the periphery of the race, never truly in it, but never out of it. Basically 2007 without the 22 of 23.

San Diego Padres

Good – Adrian Gonzalez – A Freddy Fave the lefty slugger is having a remarkable season with 24 home runs and an OPS that is nearly 200 points better away from Petco.

Bad – Pitching – Despite playing in a violently extreme pitcher’s park the Padres are 14th in the National League in runs allowed.

Ugly – Brian Giles – Giles has been an utter disaster with an OPS below .550 and just two home runs so far.

Outlook – This just is not a very good team and should continue to be a not very good team through the second half.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Good – Mark Reynolds – The 3rd baseman may not be the conventional sort as he is on pace to cruise past 200 strikeouts but his .271/.357/.558 line is more than making up for the Ks.

Bad – Chris Young – The onetime hot prospect has yet to establish himself as a big leaguer despite regular playing time the last three years.

Ugly – Brandon Webb – The injury to Webb is a major blow to this team who relied heavily on the gifted sinkerballer.

Outlook – Just a lot of holes on this team. I think they are better than San Diego but that’s about as good as it gets right now.

Weekend Preview

Opponent: Seattle Mariners

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers:

Friday – Tim Wakefield (10-3, 4.18) vs. Felix Hernandez (8-3, 2.54)
Saturday – Brad Penny (6-3, 4.79) vs. Garrett Olson (3-2, 4.81)
Sunday – Jon Lester (7-6, 4.35) vs. Brandon Morrow (0-3, 5.14)

Randomness: Morrow has pitched well since moving into the rotation with a 3.78 ERA in his four starts. He has not been going very deep into games though as he stretches out with only 16 2/3 innings in those four starts and has completed five innings only once.

In his place in the closer role has been David Aardsma who has been terrific. Aardsma has an ERA of 1.45.

Sorry to keep it short but hey, it’s a holiday weekend. I’ll have a mid-season review in place of the usual Sunday Notes this week that I think you’ll enjoy. Next week I will do a review of the All Star teams that will be announced this Sunday afternoon. It's an ambitious week ahead of us, I hope you don't mind the lack of the usual Sunday Notes.

Have a wonderful Independence Day everyone. Please be safe and don’t drive drunk.

That Mean Median and Scarcity

Earlier this week reader Mike b noted that the position of shortstop is significantly weakened over its heyday earlier in the decade. This got me to considering the idea of scarcity. From a business perspective scarcity is simply the rarity of a resource needed to function and this has many applications within the building of a baseball team.

There is no limit on how much above or below average a team can be at a given position. An 85 win team that can suddenly replace an average catcher with Joe Mauer can suddenly find themselves at 90-92 wins and in the thick of things. This is because there are two types of averages;

Mean – The “mean” is what most of us are referring to when we say “average.” For example, in a group of players who hit the following number of home runs; 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 22 the mean would be 6.4. Thus, one could correctly say the average player in that group hit 6.4 home runs.

Median – The “median” is the mid point of a group of numbers. In that group the “median” would be 5. In other words, half the people in the group hit above 5 home runs and half hit fewer.

So in this example very few players are actually “above average.” This tends to be how things work because you are likely to find players further above the “mean” than below it.

The reason for this is that players below that level often get discarded because they are not very good. The best home run hitter can hit 50-60 home runs, a gain of far, far more than the worst home run hitter will lose.

This becomes important when building a team when a position is weak league wide. Take the example of Joe Mauer I used above. Because catcher is a generally weak position only a few catchers will be above the “mean” so having one of those rare players will be of greater value than an “above average” player might otherwise be. If a team can take the field with a substantial advantage at one position that is a real bonus.

What this does NOT mean is you punt another position and give that edge back. When you have seized an advantage you hold onto it with everything you have.

This had come up in response to some back and forth in the comments section. I had mentioned that the Sox would be better off if minor league pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelly failed miserably as a hitter establishing that he is a pitcher once and for all.

Manny Mota called me out quickly on that subject asking why I wouldn’t want to see the Sox develop a top notch shortstop. Manny’s point was a good one and frankly I was not clear.

Regarding Kelly specifically, look, if Casey Kelly wants to turn into Alex Rodriguez, I am absolutely A-freakin’-OK with that. The problem is that from what I’ve read there isn’t a lot of expectation that this will happen. He seems to have limited upside as a shortstop and my concern is that if he goes out and hits .230-.240 that will be good enough for him to want to continue with that attempt.

If his future does lie as a pitcher, I would like to see him working his way through the system that has developed so many exciting pitchers in the last half decade sooner than later. If he can do the job at shortstop then by all means let him do it but I just don’t have the sense that this is something he can expect and I did a poor job of explaining that Tuesday afternoon.

Theo Epstein has spoken in the past of developing a team that is average or better at all positions. From this perspective if he is speaking of the “mean” then this will be better for the Red Sox in the long run.

Game 78 Recap

BOS – 001 000 004 01 – 6 – 10 – 0
BAL – 112 100 000 00 – 5 – 6 – 1

For the thousands of reasons baseball is the best game in the world none is more important than the absence of a clock. The very rare rain-shortened game excepted if you are going to win, you have to get 27 outs. You don’t get to take a knee or run the four corners, you gotta get 27 outs and until you do that you ain’t done nothin’.

Last night that fact bit the Sox in the ol’ back pocket and today the Sox bit back. Down to their final three outs they rallied and down to their final out with no one on they got a single (Ellsbury), two walks (Bailey, Varitek) and another single (Baldelli) to tie the game.

One night after dreadful relief work the Sox got twelve up and twelve down out of Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez and Jonathan Papelbon to bring it home.

You can’t help but feel for the O’s fans. Two years on they get some karmic payback for the Mother’s Day Miracle and less than 24 hours later, this happens.

- The cliche is that momentum is only as good as tomorrow’s starting pitcher. That didn’t fly today as Josh Beckett certainly didn’t bring his “A” game while Brad Bergesen was excellent. Beckett pitched alright though giving the Sox seven tough innings. Following on yahoo.com it seemed that he didn’t really pitch badly so much as made a few egregiously bad pitches that got hammered (the two homers and Markakis' double). Other than that he seemed to do alright.

- Daniel Bard gave the Sox two vitally important innings. He is not there yet but the talent shines through with some regularity. At the risk of going Joe Morgan on ya’ what he needs to do is find that consistency. In some ways he is reenacting the early days of Manny Delcarmen’s career where he would alternate the very impressive with the not so impressive.

- The dramatic ninth inning comeback is a hallmark of the Terry Francona era. Whatever gets thrown at this team they just keep playing ‘til out 27 and loss number four in a post-season series. It is to Francona’s credit that this team stays even-keeled and doesn’t revel in the dramatic victories or wallow in the devastating defeats.

- It seemed to me that Baltimore skipper Dave Tremblay overreacted in the ninth. I didn’t see it but why lift Johnson after the Youkilis homer? He is every bit the pitcher Sherrill is and Sherrill was hardly overwhelming last night and with 25 pitches had to be a little weary.

Like I said, I didn’t see it though so maybe Johnson wasn’t throwing well but watching the game cast on Yahoo! I was elated to see Johnson come out.

Good: Julio Lugo’s reputation is not exactly the best but he has been a model teammate this year. He has said (or not said) exactly what is appropriate and he is producing off the bench. With his game winning 11th inning single he is now hitting .301 in a reserve role.

Bad: Jason Bay is slumping pretty awfully right now. The Sox need him to shake out of these doldrums and get back to hitting the way he is capable. Hopefully the home cookin’ cures what ails him though his road OPS is actually higher than his home OPS this year.

Ugly: Dustin Pedroia took the Sox out of an inning in the third when he was thrown out trying to advance to third on his RBI double. There really isn’t a good reason to get thrown out at third for the final out of the inning in Baltimore.

At Fenway it can be a useful gambit since an ensuing hit to left likely won’t get the run home but in a more conventionally dimensioned park like Camden Yards there is no need to be overly aggressive.

Stray Thoughts On A Disaster

OK, we’re all digging out of the rubble of last night's disgrace. I’m reminded of the line (I’ve seen it attributed to Gene Mauch but it’s probably apocryphal) who after a tough loss was asked “how’d you sleep?” To which he responded;

“Like a baby.

I woke up crying every two hours.”

Anyway, some thoughts;

- The more I consider it I still can’t put this one on Terry Francona. There has been some talk on the internet that he yanked Delcarmen too quickly. However, Okajima has dominated lefties and Markakis becomes a lesser (though still good) hitter against lefties.

While Markakis got a hit Okajima got Huff to end the frame. Even had Delcarmen been allowed to face Markakis and gotten him out I doubt he would have started the 8th and with Huff/Reimold/Scott due Okajima was probably a good choice there.

In the end the relievers did not do the job.

- Despite the disaster the Sox’ bullpen should be in decent shape this afternoon. Delcarmen (6 pitches) and Saito (12 pitches) should be ready to go while Ramirez and Bard did not pitch at all. Papelbon hasn’t worked three straight days since September of last year (he blew the save on day three - the Dan Johnson game) but has only thrown 16 pitches in the last two days so he should be available in a save situation.

Okajima (25 pitches) and Masterson (35 pitches) probably are not available. If injury or ineffectiveness forces Beckett from the game very early the Sox may be in a bit of a pickle but that’s the case the day after any extended Masterson outing.

If they play 13-14 innings I wonder if Wakefield might find himself on tap.

- I sort of mentally recreated the 7th and 8th innings last night and of the 13 hits the O’s mounted in those two innings at least nine of them were sharply hit. They didn’t get lucky, they just beat the Sox’ bullpen like a drum.

- Ty Wigginton seems like a guy who should have some trade value, kind of a Mark DeRosa-lite. He is a good enough hitter (having a bad year) and is pretty versatile. Last night he played shortstop for the third time this year, a position he had never played in either the Majors or Minors prior to this season.

- Pedroia made a poor decision on the ground out by Andino in the 7th. He raced to the bag himself rather than feeding Lugo. I think if he had fed Lugo (who was in position) the Sox could have turned two and ended the inning up 10-5 rather than 10-6.

- The Sox had an embarrassing moment in the sixth when they ran off the field en masse after only the second out of the inning. The NESN team hypothesized that this may have been a cause (or a symptom at least) of a team that had mentally checked out.

I can’t get behind this. Even if you assume Masterson mentally lost it (and explain how he struck out the next hitter if you believe that) I have a hard time believing that four different relievers who weren’t even in the game at the time suddenly checked out too.

I’m sure the bullpen guys had shut down a bit with the big lead and the crummy weather but so too would the Oriole relievers and Hendrickson and Sherrill did their jobs. I would put even money that of Delcarmen, Saito, Okajima and Papelbon at least one if not two of them wasn’t even watching the game when the guys ran off the field.

Big leads happen all the time and I’m sure the guys in the ‘pen do shut down a bit in that situation. Leads like this don’t get blown all the time so I find it hard to believe that was a big issue.

- Incredibly this isn’t the biggest lead blown in the Majors this year. Earlier this year the Rays blew a 10-0 lead to Cleveland. They wound up losing the next three in a row after that and then got hot and have gone 21-8 since that losing streak.

Game 77 Recap/Game 78 Preview

BOS – 220 500 100 – 10 – 16 – 0
BAL – 001 000 55x – 11 – 16 – 1

The Sox suffered a horrendous defeat at the hands of the Orioles blowing a 10-1 lead in the 7th and 8th inning as Terry Francona saw five different relievers spit the bit violently. Masterson ran out of steam after two strong innings then Delcarmen, Okajima, Saito and Papelbon went a combined two innings allowing eight hits and five runs.

It’s hard to really say what happened. The relievers gave up some absolute rockets but there were a bunch of bloops that dropped in that really hurt as well. The simple fact is the bullpen that has dominated all year threw up all over itself.

George Kottaras came in the game to replace Varitek in the 7th with the 10-1 lead and was involved in two key plays. In the 8th he was thrown out after sliding around the plate rather than right into it (Wieters wasn’t blocking the plate at all) then in the bottom of the inning with second and third and no outs he scooped up a little dribbler but inexplicably failed to throw to first.

On the play the batter Oscar Salazar ran well inside the first base line but if you don’t throw the interference call can’t be made.

I have a tough time blaming Francona for what happened here. Masterson lost it almost instantaneously and then everyone failed. He may have pulled the trigger a bit quickly on Delcarmen but I liked the move to have Okajima face Markakis.

Some other thoughts on the night;

- Much better in round two for John Smoltz. He came out and seemed much more decisive with his pitches using the fastball nearly exclusively in the first inning. He had good movement and good location with it.

The slider still didn’t look quite right to me. It seems a bit inconsistent diving sharply in some cases and rolling a bit in others. I would think that the breaking ball would be more difficult than a fastball to gain the feel of precisely because it is a “touch” pitch.

Had he been able to give the Sox one more inning the Sox likely could have pulled off the victory. The rain really killed the Sox though there was no excuse for the fiasco that followed.

- The offense had a nice evening. The results with Pedroia in the number two spot are pretty good so far although making a switch like that when you play the Oriole pitching staff is stacking the deck a bit.

Ellsbury continues to contribute and he’s been going well for quite awhile now. I really like him at the bottom part of the order where he can run a little more freely without worrying about taking the club out of a big inning with guys like Youkilis or Bay at the plate.

- Sox got out quick thanks to Lugo and Youkilis in the first. For all of Lugo’s defensive struggles this year he has hit pretty well entering this game with a nice .292/.361/.385 line. Not too many teams would complain about that kind of production from their backup infielder.

Good: Gosh darnit, I worked on the list and just because things went to hell in a handbasket I’m not going to lose the effort. With 210 wins Smoltz will be the 14th pitcher with that many wins in one league before notching his first win in a different league, the other 13;

Steve Carlton 318
Roger Clemens 310
Cy Young 286
Eddie Plank 284
Tom Seaver 273
Robin Roberts 273
Phil Niekro 268
Don Sutton 254
Juan Marichal 238
Jim Kaat 235
Luis Tiant 225
Earl Whitehill 214

(I did this by hand so I may have missed one or two)

Bad: If you didn’t stay up after the delay you missed the blooper of the year. After the second out of the sixth the entire infield plus Masterson ran off the field as if it was the third out. The look on the faces of the guys in the dugout was priceless especially with Tito taking off his hat and scratching the top of his head.

I mean, they didn’t even hesitate. Bailey grabbed Lugo’s throw and off they went.

Ugly: Jeff Bailey started at first base and batted ninth in this one. This was the 23rd time this decade the Red Sox have featured a 1st baseman batting ninth;

Doug Mientkiewicz – 5 (2004)
Jeff Bailey – 4 (2008/2009)
Jose Offerman – 4 (2002)
Carlos Pena – 3 (2006)
Eric Hinske – 3 (2007)
David McCarty – 2 (2004)
Tony Clark – 1 (2002)
Brian Daubach – 1 (2001)
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Game 78

Opponent: Baltimore Orioles

Park: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Pitchers: Josh Beckett (9-3, 3.48) vs. Brad Bergesen (5-2, 3.76)

Randomness: Afternoon baseball on Wednesday with a 1:35 start.

The Pirates were busy on Tuesday making two trades. One I like one I’m not so sure about.

The one I’m torn on is the deal of Eric Hinske to the Yankees for two minor leaguers; RHP Casey Erickson and OF Eric Fryer. What kills me on this one is the Yankees got the Pirates to pay half of Hinske’s remaining salary. Erickson and Fryer are not considered much in terms of prospects but it’s probably as good a return on Hinske as the Corsairs were gonna get.

The one I like is the trade of outfielder Nyjer Morgan and LHP Sean Burnett to Washington for outfielder Lastings Milledge and RHP Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan is a nice gamble coming off a good year in 2008 he has been pretty bad this year but he’s a decent risk.

The centerpiece though is Milledge. I’ve been critical of Milledge in the past but he is still young (he turned 24 in April) so if any of that talent that made him a coveted prospect a couple years ago is still there it will come through.

Most importantly though is that this is it for Milledge. It’s one thing to fail with the Sox or Yankees or Angels but if he doesn’t get it together for the Pirates both in performance and attitude he is toast. Being both uncoachable and not good enough for the Nationals and Pirates is not what we would call a resume builder.

If Lastings Milledge gets his act together this could turn out to be a really nice deal for the Buccos.

Lowell to DL

Courtesy of Extra Bases the Sox have sent Mike Lowell to the Disabled List retroactive to June 28th. By my count his return date would then be the Monday of the All Star Break. This is hardly good news. From Will Carroll's column at Baseball Prospectus today;

"Synvisc isn't going to cure the root problem, but it might get it to where Lowell can play comfortably and effectively. The Sox will give him a few days to let the Synvisc coat the area, and then see how he reacts. Because Synvisc is quick-acting and is removed by the body, putting him on the DL now would indicate that it didn't work, so this is going to require a very telling decision in the next few days."

In other news the Washington Nationals have traded Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan to the Pirates. Hanrahan has been pretty crummy but he is the Nationals' most used reliever so let's see if this triggers renewed discussion of the alleged Delcarmen for Nick Johnson deal.

Jeff Bailey has been called up and will play first base tonight.

Game 76 Recap/Game 77 Preview

BOS – 100 300 000 – 4 – 11 – 0
BAL – 000 000 000 – 0 – 6 – 0

The Sox picked up a victory in the first game of their series in Baltimore behind a great performance from Jon Lester. Candidly I was sweating this one out right until Bay made his fine sliding catch to seal it. The Sox had a number of chances to put the game away early and it had the feel of a squander but Lester made it stand up.

Congratulations to Jonathan Papelbon on equaling Bob Stanley’s club record of 132 career saves. It may have been a bit of a cheapo but hey, take what you are given. It was the fifth save of Papelbon’s career in which he worked 1/3 of an inning, three of the five are against the Orioles.

Bob Stanley also had five including one on my 16th birthday.
Mariano Rivera has twenty of them (by the way, belated congrats to one of the classiest men ever to play the game on notching his 500th save).

- Jon Lester was tremendous. The Orioles hit him a bit in the 7th inning but by that point he was just finishing up. He entered the game second in the league in K/9IP behind Verlander and posted eight more Ks.

It is very impressive to see the increase in strikeouts because he has done it without an increase in base on balls allowed. A lot of times guys will have to overthrow or do too much to increase their K rate and walks will come. Lester is doing it on pure stuff which is impressive.

- The Sox had some chances in the early going but couldn’t get the big hit to make things comfortable. It didn’t seem to me that the Sox hitters did a poor job so much as Berken just made some good pitches.

Part of the problem was that while they went a disappointing 1 for 7 with RISP they couldn’t move people along. In four chances to advance a base runner in scoring position those first three innings only once did they do so.

- J.D. Drew had a terrific night. What struck me, as it has many times since he arrived, is how easy he can make the game look. When he is right the ball always seems to travel 20-30 feet further than it seems like it should and he made a few nice catches in the outfield where he got perfect reads and tracked the ball expertly.

The decision to bat him leadoff clearly worked out. For those clamoring to get Pedroia out of there because of his struggles in that spot it should be noted that Drew’s career .738 OPS in the leadoff spot is not exactly going to evoke memories of Rickey Henderson.

- Could’ve done without the decision to yank Okajima for Ramirez in the ninth. I felt this was an overmanage by Francona. While I understand the desire to get Ramirez some work (he hadn’t pitched since Thursday) waiting one more day wouldn’t have been awful. Ramirez wasn’t too bad, he actually looked a bit rusty (19 pitches, only 9 strikes).

- This was my first time seeing the heralded Matt Wieters and I was impressed. He flashed a quick bat a couple of times and looked good at the plate. He was a bit unlucky defensively as the Orioles did not seem to do much to hold runners on but he showed a strong and accurate arm despite not really having a chance to throw anyone out.

Apparently he is not fast however.

- If you haven’t see it elsewhere…box score of the year.

Good: It was announced on Friday that pitcher Casey Kelly (US team) and pitcher Junichi Tazawa (World team) will represents the Red Sox’ system in the Futures Game on July 12th in St. Louis. Last year Red Sox’ OF Che-Hsuan Lin earned MVP honors in the game.

Bad: Jason Bay had a terrible night at the plate going 0 for 5 including a strike out with one out and a man on third. He made up for it on the game's final play with a terrific sliding catch to end things.

Ugly: I did not like the decision to have Green bunting in the fourth. Whether Francona called it or Green did it on his own it was unnecessarily cautious. The Sox hadn’t moved runners along in the early innings but if you are getting hits eventually you’ll move those runners along and giving up an out is a bad play in my mind.
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Game 77

Opponent: Baltimore Orioles

Park: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Pitchers: John Smoltz (0-1, 9.00) vs. Rich Hill (3-2, 6.03)

Randomness: According to Terry Francona in Extra Bases Mike Lowell had “pretty extensive” fluid drained from his hip. For now we’re all in hurry up and wait mode to see what Lowell’s availability is.

The guys on Comcast Sports were somewhat critical of Terry Francona for not sticking to the presumed plan of getting Lowell some time off early in the season. Lowell played 65 of the first 67 Red Sox games this year before playing just three times in the last ten days.

As much as I like to defend Tito I think this is a valid criticism. One of Francona’s strengths that I’ve noted time and again is his ability to take the Longview. In the case of Mike Lowell he may not have taken the proper viewpoint though and got a little greedy with Lowell who got off to a good start through the end of May.

My initial thought was that some of this fell on Theo Epstein for not providing Terry the necessary depth. As I considered it I realized this may be a function of the injury to Jed Lowrie as well though.

Recall that Lowrie played a lot of third base the last two months of 2008 and I think that the plan as designed in the off-season was that the Sox would be able to do some mixing and matching with their lineup with combinations featuring Youk/Lowell, Kotsay/Youk and even Lugo SS/Lowrie 3B.

When Kotsay, then Lowrie went down the Sox found themselves with significantly less depth and versatility on the corners than they anticipated. That doesn’t necessarily excuse Francona for what would seem to be overwork of Lowell but it explains it quite a bit.

Weekend Recap/Game 76 Preview

The Sox won yet another series this time against the Atlanta Braves. The win on Friday was the 800th career win for Terry Francona.

Friday

- Josh Beckett was at it again. He is truly cooking and to my eye the curveball is just a monster pitch right now. Whether it’s Varitek calling the pitches, Beckett deciding what to throw or Farrell doing some pregame planning I do not know but it seems that not only is he throwing it well but he seems to be throwing it at the right moments.

- There was a little moment in the game where J.D. Drew fielded a fly ball in medium right. I noticed it then and I’ve noticed before the Drew often does a poor job of getting into position to throw. The most noticeable example of this was in Game Two of the ALCS when on the decisive sac fly he didn’t do a good job of getting behind the ball then catch it moving forward.

Drew has a strong arm and seems to be very accurate but he costs himself and his team by not properly positioning himself.

- The Sox were fortunate in the 8th inning. After seizing the 4-0 lead in the top half of the frame Okaji got himself in trouble with an error and a walk. He made nasty pitches to Chipper to strike him out then on a 3-1 pitch got bailed out by Garrett Anderson who chased ball four.

Okajima then made some an excellent pitch to retire him and some nice pitches to put away Kotchman to end the threat. That single pitch to Garrett Anderson was enormous. Instead of bases loaded and one out the inning changed dramatically and that really was the key moment.

Saturday

- Tim Wakefield was viewed by many as the weak link in the rotation when the season started. So far he has been anything but. He has arguably been the most consistently solid Red Sox starter this year and now has ten quality starts in fifteen attempts.

With the start Tim has now tied Clemens’ club record for starts and needs 17 to tie and 18 to pass Clemens and Cy Young at the top of the win list.

I was looking at the list yesterday and as much as I’d love to see it Wake doesn’t really deserve to be an All Star. He is currently 25th among AL qualifiers in ERA and 28th in WHIP. If he is selected it would be a great honor but I wonder how he would feel about a lifetime achievement type of award rather than truly earning the berth.

- One of the impressive aspects of the performance by Wake was that he led off the third inning with a single. He then stood at first base for the remainder of the inning. Standing around in 90+ degree heat and high humidity can be draining but he did a good job to come back and pitch a solid bottom of the inning.

Look, I’m not saying this is akin to Jim Abbott pitching with one arm but he did well to keep his focus and energy.

- I haven’t been alarmist about Papelbon in awhile so why not now? He pitched poorly Friday and Saturday. Friday with the big lead it wasn’t an issue but Saturday it was troubling. What is interesting is there has been much talk about his lack of a splitter for the last year or so. Ironically despite the lack of a pitch designed to get lefties out he is dominating portsiders in 2009 holding them to a .560 OPS.

- Mark Kotsay contributed the game’s sole RBI. So far he has done a nice job with a .739 OPS, not great, but decent and of course that wonderful versatility that I love so much. With Mike Lowell’s status up in the air Kotsay contributing is crucial.

- Manny Delcarmen came through once again in this one. Delcarmen was criticized early in his career in some circles for a lack of mental toughness. Delcarmen has become as steady a reliever as there is in the game with his 2.05 ERA in 2007, 3.27 in 2008 and 2.12 in 2009 (through Saturday).

He does this in part because of a .499 OPS (.176 BA) by opposing hitters with runners in scoring position while allowing just 8 of 10 inherited runners to score.

Sunday

- Brad Penny pitched well. He had a bit of a problem in the first when he seemed to do something to his pitching hand and shortly thereafter gave up the home run to Jones.

I’m not a doctor but I have a lot of experience with pinched nerves and that looked like what Penny was dealing with. In my case it happens in my shoulder area but it’s my hand that tingles and I often find myself making the same open and closing motion that Penny was making.

It’s a weird feeling and I’m told with massage can be fixed easily (say between innings) but while the nerve is pinched you don’t have a lot of sensation in the affected hand.

- Tommy Hanson was supposedly a game time decision due to illness. Thank God he didn’t have the chicken pox he might have thrown a no hitter. He was exceptional dominating the Sox for six innings.

- It did not matter in this game but Mike Gonzalez’ windup is illegal. From the rule book;

“8.01 (a) The Windup Position. The pitcher shall stand facing the batter, his pivot foot in contact with the pitcher’s plate and the other foot free. From this position any natural movement associated with his delivery of the ball to the batter commits him to the pitch without interruption or alteration. He shall not raise either foot from the ground, except that in his actual delivery of the ball to the batter, he may take one step backward, and one step forward with his free foot. (emphasis mine)

Gonzalez rocks a different number of times on each pitch and often lifts his foot once if not more. It was irrelevant Sunday as he only faced one batter in the windup (giving up a single) but it is still an illegal windup. If I were an opposing manager I would go to the third base ump with a copy of the rule book and show him the above passage and force him to acknowledge the illegality and call a ball as prescribed by rule 8.01(d).

8.01 (d) If the pitcher makes an illegal pitch with the bases unoccupied, it shall be called a ball unless the batter reaches first base on a hit, an error, a base on balls, a hit batter or otherwise.

Good: On Friday night Nick Green made a fine play ranging far to his left up the middle to grab a grounder and throw the runner out. He has really solidified his defense and seems to have good range to his left (not so much to his right) and a strong arm.

Bad: Mike Lowell is going to have an injection of Synvisc on Monday for his hip. This is a procedure many of us became familiar with a few years ago when David Wells had it done. This isn't good news as it suggests that if it does not work the Sox may be without Lowell for an extended period of time.

Ugly: Where was Kevin Youkilis going on Friday? After the one out walk and wild pitch brought the run in from third the Sox were set to have first and third with one out for Bay. Instead, Youk decided to try for second, got about halfway before realizing he had no shot and bid a hasty retreat to no avail.

If not for the runner on third I wouldn’t have thought it was a bad idea. The Brave middle infielders were in on the grass and looked like they might be snoozin’. With the runner at third and less than two outs it was a bad idea though. Youkilis needs to be more aware of the situation there when making that kind of a play.
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Game 76

Opponent: Baltimore Orioles

Park: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Pitchers: Jon Lester (6-6, 4.68) vs. Jason Berken (1-4, 6.32)

Randomness: The Orioles are having yet another rough season and are currently tenth in the AL in runs scored and thirteenth in runs allowed. There are a few changes since the Red Sox saw Baltimore back in April;

LF – Nolan Reimold – I touched on Reimold a week ago in Sunday Notes. The right-handed slugger has flashed good power with nine home runs in 39 games and good plate discipline though he will strikeout. He has hammered lefties to the tune of a 1.056 OPS.

SS – Robert Andino – The former Marlin does not bring a lot of offense to the table but he is a top notch defensive shortstop.

C – Matt Wieters – The highly touted switch-hitter has had a bit of a rough go so far with just a .705 OPS. The talent is undeniable he just has not put it together offensively. Jacoby Ellsbury may look to take advantage of the youngster as 11 of 12 base stealers have been successful against him in the majors though in the minors he was very good throwing out 36% of would be thieves.

Sunday Notes

Some late news that on Thursday night Phillie reliever J.C. Romero was involved in an altercation at a bar after the game. Evidently he shoved a man who had begun yelling at him. Here are the words of the shoved man, 25 year old Robert Eaton;

Eaton said he was attempting to get autographs from Phillies players when the incident happened. After players brushed him off, Eaton said he called out to Romero, something to the effect of, "How about you get me some juice?"…Romero snapped, Eaton said, telling him to "shut the f---- up" and that he didn't know what he was talking about.

Eaton said he replied that Romero was the one who'd been suspended recently.

"He reared back and kinda grazed my chin and grabbed me by the neck and threw me back," Eaton said. "I was in shock." (thanks St. Petersburg Times)

I find physical violence distasteful but if this is the “victim’s” account I have a tough time believing that Eaton was particularly wronged. It sounds to me like Eaton got in Romero’s face (his personal space as the psychologists would say) and Romero shoved him out of the way. I have no real problem with this.

Look, it’s simple. Yes, we pay their salaries and yes I wish players would be a bit more pleasant sometimes but when a player is away from the ballpark I don’t think we have any right to hassle them. For what it’s worth I feel the same way about actors and musicians too. I think the TMZing of America is a bad thing.

Anyway, J.C. Romero shouldn’t be getting physical with people but I have a hard time believing that this guy Eaton didn’t instigate things. When his own version of events has him being disrespectful and mocking Romero well, don’t be a nitwit buddy and you won’t have a problem.

In a shocking development Eaton has hired a lawyer who “hasn’t had time to investigate the case.” More from Eaton “"I don't feel what I said was wrong, I feel if you cheat the game you're going to hear it from people. He brought that on himself. I just can't believe that a professional athlete would cross the line." (St. Pete Times again)

I’ve never been in a bar fight in my life. You know why? Because I act like a grown up. It’s not that tough. Hey Robert Eaton, don’t start talking trash at people if you don’t want people to get mad. Just because you are a nobody and J.C. Romero is a somebody doesn’t give you the right to flap your gums at him.
********************************************************************************
MLB Network announced Saturday night that the St. Louis Cardinals have acquired Mark DeRosa from the Cleveland Indians in exchange for 23 year old RHP Chris Perez. The Indians get an exciting young arm as Perez is a potential top reliever with a live arm whose fastball is in the mid-90s and has fanned 72 in 65 1/3 innings and a player to be named later.

DeRosa is a nice pickup for the Cards. If I had a National League team I would kill for a guy like DeRosa. His versatility is a tremendous asset with double switches and whatnot. How the Cards use him will remain to be seen but DeRosa is a talented player.

Over the last five years DeRosa has an OPS of .813 and he can realistically play just about anywhere on the diamond with over 50 games at five different positions (2B, 3B, RF, SS, LF). While he may not really be a shortstop anymore it is still useful for LaRussa to have that option in a pinch.

This looks like it should be a good trade for both teams. The 34 year old DeRosa is a good piece who can help the Cardinals in a lot of places. Meanwhile the Indians acquire a potential top reliever to help a beleaguered bullpen.
********************************************************************************
Last weekend Alex Rodriguez was given a couple of days off by manager Joe Girardi. In telling the press about the off days Girardi addressed “fatigue” as a factor since A-Rod had played every day since his return to the Yankee lineup.

Of course, life with Alex Rodriguez is never just a matter of waking up and going to the ballpark. That bastion of integrity and hard news the New York Post reported that Rodriguez was out at a night club into the “wee hours” of the morning with actress Kate Hudson. The Post reported that when pinch hitting the next night Rodriguez “merely drew a walk.”

Goodness, it is hard to fit that much stupidity into one little paragraph but you really have to admire the Post. Let’s get the easy one out of the way; a pinch hitting appearance in which a player draws a walk is not a bad thing. In fact, it’s a good thing and criticizing A-Rod for drawing a walk is indescribably stupid.

Beyond that though is the inability of the press to do understand that not everyone lives their lives. The game on Friday night ended at approximately 10:05. Even if you assume that A-Rod was out of there quickly he wasn’t going to be getting anywhere for dinner before 11PM. The fact is if he wanted to do something as mundane as have an after dinner drink he almost certainly would have had to have gone to a night club of some sort.

Then of course comes the math. Let’s say A-Rod really was out tearing it up and didn’t get to bed until 5AM. With the game starting at 7PM the next night he could have gotten ten hours of sleep and woken up at 3PM and had plenty of rest.

The fact is that Major League ballplayers function in a world many of us can’t comprehend. They aren’t quite working a graveyard shift but it’s pretty darned close. The truth of the matter is that an MLB player probably shouldn’t be going to bed before 2AM.

Think of it this way. Let’s assume you are at your best at the office between 10AM and 2PM? You wake up at what, 6AM to be at your best during those hours? For an MLB player 6AM=3PM. Even if you assume they are up a little earlier, say noon, eight hours of sleep still puts them in bed at 4AM.

Look, players certainly shouldn’t be out carousing, drinking heavily and abusing their bodies during the season. However, a player staying out “late” if he isn’t doing any of those things (and no one suggested Rodriguez was doing any of those things) really isn’t any cause for concern.

Alex Rodriguez went out for dinner with a friend. That’s all that was. That the New York Post felt the need to make a story out of it is just one more example of why newspapers are going away.
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There was some discussion over at Baseball Think Factory this week about the idea of having announcerless games. It is pretty common among fans to bemoan the performance of the announcers and several suggestions were offered.

Frankly I think announcerless games would be pretty dull. Not all announcers are created equal of course. Some of them are exceptional, some are decidedly less than exceptional. For the day to day local broadcasters the most important skill in my opinion is to be comfortable.

Local broadcasters are heard by the same, relatively small, core of fans night in and night out. For most of us we aren’t looking for an announcer to lecture us or to go crazy over the littlest thing but just someone to be another voice in the background of our lives.

One poster at BBTF pointed out the difference approach BBC takes for soccer. They give you the options of the TV announcers, the radio announcers or no announcers at all. That would be kind of neat, sometimes it might be fun to listen to Joe and Dave while watching the action the way many of us used to watch the Celtics with Johnny Most on the radio.

What announcers do that bothers me is try to go over the moment. I blame Al Michaels for this. In 1980 Michaels famously cried “do you believe in miracles? YES!” as the US Hockey team pulled off their incredible upset of the Soviets.

Michaels was actually perfect for that moment. His phraseology was memorable and after that line he shut the hell up. Unfortunately rare is the announcer who can mix those two things. 99% of the time whatever the announcer is yelling is not memorable or poetic, it is just noise.

Generally the best approach for an announcer to have is a simple inverse relationship to the moment. The bigger the moment, the less announcer we need. Chris Berman, hardly the patron saint of the understated approach did this better than anyone during Cal Ripken’s 2131st consecutive game when he didn’t speak for 22 minutes as Ripken ran a lap around the field interacting with the fans.

For TV announcers it’s just a matter of remembering that we as viewers can see what is happening. Total silence isn’t necessary but just some basic information and analysis is all we want. Not to be mean but really; Keep It Simple Stupid should be the mantra.
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Interesting piece at WEEI.com on Tuesday about the Red Sox’ draft. The piece is not so much an analysis of the draft itself as an inside look at the process the Sox go through during the draft.

One of the things that I found interesting was the early afternoon walk Theo Epstein and Amateur Scouting Director Jason McLeod take the day of the draft. It is an opportunity for the two men to clear the heads and go over some last minute theory on the draft.

More than anything else that was the takeaway I got from the article. It is a great piece because you get a sense of the Sox desire to work the process rather than letting themselves run around a bit. Theo Epstein said two things in the piece that I found particularly instructive;

“Let’s just get the guys we like. Don’t worry about if a player who should be gone in the second round is there in the third. If he’s not a guy we like, don’t worry about it.”

This is a great philosophy. I used to work for a company where one of the mottos was “the only thing worse than losing a good employee is keeping a bad one.” That’s a really good point. You can always replace a good employee but a bad employee who stays on board will infect an organization and a bad player taking up a valuable roster spot is a lost opportunity.

If you don’t like a player, don’t worry about what other people are saying, trust your evaluators.

The other thing he said was this; “Draft day should be simple execution. You make or break your drafts with the scouting process and the preparation of the draft.”

More wisdom beyond his years from Theo. The last thing an organization should be doing on draft day is trying to reevaluate the hundreds if not thousands of players they’ve scouted and studied over the last twelve months. This is the baseball equivalent of cramming for a history final and it works about as well.

If a player is at the top of your board on Monday night, then draft him Tuesday afternoon.

I highly recommend this well-written article by Alex Speier.
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Manny Ramirez is scheduled to return from his suspension on Friday July 3rd. One of the aspects that has been discussed a bit more with Manny’s suspension than it was for other players’ suspensions is that Manny has been eligible for a rehab assignment in the minors like an injured player returning from the Disabled List.

This has come under some scrutiny but in reality it is a perfectly reasonable compromise by Major League Baseball. When a player is suspension it is typically a short time frame, even the most egregious offenses are usually no more than ten days. Because of this players don’t really lose their timing or find themselves atrophying from lack of game play.

A suspension for violating the drug policy is fifty games though. This is a much longer time (50 > 10, glad to help) and players would find themselves almost needing some sort of rehab. Because of that to not allow some sort of rehab assignment before the completion of the fifty games would effectively make it a 55-60 game suspension.

The fact is no amount of practice can truly recreate game conditions. Part of the concern is obviously the ability to come back and play well but part of it is also to avoid injury. As vindictive as some folks are I don’t think any reasonable person wants to see a player injured so allowing a short rehab assignment is reasonable.

Of course the Dodgers are using it as a bit of a marketing ploy. From what I’ve read they’ve gotten their minor league affiliates some pretty nice turnstile counts. I have to confess to finding that a bit odious though a bit revealing.

On the one hand, the man has been suspended for something Major League Baseball deems a serious infraction. To see that turned into a money making windfall is bothersome.

Conversely it is revealing to see how “outraged” fans are. I’m a firm believer that people in the US vote with their wallets. So far it seems the fans of the Dodgers minor league teams are voting “aye” in favor of Manny Ramirez by turning out to see him.

That is not the big issue I want to look at today though. The issue I’m concerned with for now is that rehab assignments are necessary and appropriate. Not allowing these rehabs would be excessively punitive and would simply serve to extend everyone’s suspension a few days unnecessarily.
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Time for yet another installment of my series on the period from 1976-1986. This week it’s a look at the top five left fielders of that era as well as one guy I choose at random to talk about. As with last week the only criteria are;

60% of games at the position
Minimum 2000 PA
Only his performance during those years is relevant

#5 – George Foster – Foster was kind of a Jim Rice-lite. A big strong right-handed hitter whose value was almost entirely in his bat. Foster is best remembered for his 1977 season when he slammed 52 home runs. That season was the only time between 1965 (Willie Mays) and 1990 (Cecil Fielder) when a player reached the 50 home run plateau.

Generally considered one of the most curmudgeonly players to grace a field he had the misfortune of being released by the Mets in August, 1986.

#4 – Jose Cruz – One of the most difficult players in the history of baseball to evaluate statistically. The talented left fielder was victimized by one of the most extreme pitchers’ parks in history. On the other hand, he had a road OPS of .765 which is very good.

Cruz was a heck of a player who truly did have four of the five skills (he never had a lot of power). He played on the losing side in maybe the two greatest League Championship Series ever in 1980 (he played exceptionally well) and 1986 (not very well at all).

#3 – Tim Raines – Currently being criminally underappreciated by the Hall of Fame voters he suffers by comparison to contemporary Rickey Henderson. He wasn’t just the second best leadoff man of his era, he was the second best leadoff man of all time. He was arguably the best player in the National League from 1984-1987.

Maybe no player in baseball history has been harmed by the relationship between the MLBPA and owners as Raines. In 1981 he could have broken Brock’s stolen base record a year before Rickey did if not for the strike. Collusion cost him a month of the 1987 season when he likely would have been MVP otherwise (frankly he should have been anyway) and while his 1994 wasn’t a great season the extra 40 or so games would have helped his counting stats.

#2 – Jim Rice – The 2009 Hall of Fame inductee and lifetime Red Sox was fantastic during this era. He gets criticized by detractors for the frequency with which he grounded into double plays but often those same detractors dismiss his RBI totals by saying they were a function of the people in front of him. In my view this is disingenuous. You cannot dismiss one counting stat but embrace another when both are linked to the hitters around them.

On his own merits he was a star in this era. He had tremendous power to all fields and I have fond memories of him driving home runs to center at Fenway as the fans in the bleachers all rose to their feet for the onrushing ball. It is fashionable to suggest he was a product of Fenway but he was 10th in baseball in road OPS between ’76-’86.

Never a great defensive outfielder, like Manny Ramirez he became quite adept at playing the wall and had a strong arm.

#1 – Rickey Henderson – To me this is another guy who is vastly underrated. Yes people realize he is great but I don’t think his greatness is truly understood. Bill James said it best, you could cut this guy into two different ballplayers; the speedster and the slugger, and get two Hall of Famers.

Special Mention – Gary Roenicke/John Lowenstein – Yeah it’s two guys but they are linked. From 1979 to 1985 they formed a devastating platoon combination for Earl Weaver’s Orioles. They combined for 171 home runs in those 7 years with a combined (and individual) OPS over .800. This partnership is one of the great platoon combinations over an extended period in the history of the game.
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Final thoughts on what should be an interesting Sunday;

- Dave Roberts is relentlessly positive and man does he love him the productive out but I have found him insightful. He picks up little things that I find interesting and while he isn’t an entertainer like Remy or Eck in his own way he is a superior analyst. If he could let go of his reliance on cliché I think he could be an outstanding color commentator.

- The Mike Lowell situation warrants watching. We are getting some varying reports on his health these days and I think it is reasonable to think that he may not be as sturdy as we think he is right now.

One benefit for the Sox on that front is the versatility of Jed Lowrie. If Lowell can hold the fort until Lowrie returns the Sox’ youngster may find himself playing a bit more third base than shortstop upon his return.

- Congratulations a week late to Ivan Rodriguez on breaking Carlton Fisk’s record for career games caught.

- Not really sure what to make of the Milton Bradley/Lou Piniella thing from Friday afternoon in Chicago. The best part for my money is that Piniella said the White Sox leaked the story to the Chicago Tribune which owns…the Cubs.

- Go USA! The US Men’s National Soccer Team will go for a shocking Confederations Cup victory today against Brazil. If you haven’t been watching I encourage you to do so. The US will be without the services of midfielder Michael Bradley due to suspension. If the US can play as disciplined as they did against Spain they can pull off the upset. If they start chasing the ball (and Brazil WILL win the possession battle) they will get burned.

I watch soccer regularly though I don't consider myself a highly knowledgable fan. For what it is worth Central defenders Oguchi Onyewu and Jay Demerit and striker Jozy Altidore are some Freddy Faves.

Little used reserve Jose Torres also impresses me whenever he plays but manager Bob Bradley (who knows a LOT more than I do on this subject) clearly isn’t as enamored. I would like to see Torres get some time in this game as he is confident on the ball and the US will miss Bradley’s steady foot in the midfield.

Game 72 Recap/Weekend Preview

BOS – 000 001 002 – 3 – 8 – 2
WAS – 401 002 20x – 9 – 11 – 1

The Sox dropped the final game of their first series in Washington since 1971 in unpleasant fashion. Smoltz had a dreadful first and then Bard and Saito couldn’t keep the game manageable late.

- Round one of the John Smoltz experience was every bit as impressive as what we have seen from Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2009. Smoltz seemed to have absolutely nothing on the ball in the first inning. His velocity was good but his breaking ball was rolling and the Nationals were teeing off.

He settled down after that though and pitched pretty well I thought. He made some really good pitches and his control (67% strikes) was very good. It was like he forgot how to pitch in that first inning. Dave Roberts was puzzled by his pitch selection and so was I. It seemed as though he wasn't quite sure what he had in his arsenal. Another couple of outings and I think you'll see that familiarity return.

- Jordan Zimmermann did an excellent job in his own right. I like what the Nationals are doing. With Strasburg (presumably) and Zimmermann they have two top of the rotation starters and Lannan looks like he could be a nice pitcher.

Offensively Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn are a nice 1-2 punch to build around and if they can keep Nick Johnson healthy he is one heck of a player too. Really if they can get the bullpen figured out and fill in some of the rough edges this team could well contend fairly quickly.

- Daniel Bard had a rough outing also. Don Orsillo alluded to the fact that he warmed up on three separate occasions before coming in and I thought that was a good point. It seems like that would cause some problems for a short reliever who would probably be fairly gassed at that point.

Good: Dustin Pedroia made a fine play in the second coming to the plate on a routine grounder to get the slow moving Josh Bard. Already down 5-0 and with the pitcher due it was a good time to take a gamble.

Bad: Daniel Bard did a pretty wretched job of “fielding” Jordan Zimmermann’s sacrifice bunt in the 6th. It was a very easy play and there was no real reason for him to misplay it.

Ugly: The first inning was pretty unpleasant as the Nationals did some significant and decisive damage.
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Weekend Preview

Opponent: Atlanta Braves

Park: Turner Field

Pitchers:

Friday – Josh Beckett (8-3, 3.74) vs. Jair Jurrjens (5-5, 2.89)
Saturday – Tim Wakefield (9-3, 4.47) vs. Javier Vazquez (5-6, 3.18)
Sunday – Brad Penny (6-2, 4.93) vs. Tommy Hanson (3-0, 3.13)

Randomness: There was an article over at Dugout Central with a series of questions. Most of them were pretty stupid, cutesy little things but one of them was one I’ve heard from even the most knowledgeable of fans;

“When do pitchers become terrible hitters? Between the ages of 5 and 18, the pitchers are usually the BEST hitters on their T-ball, travel, or high school teams. At what point do they go from the best to the worst?”

To me nothing speaks to how difficult hitting a baseball is than this set of facts. The truth of the matter is that the old saw is true, hitting a baseball is the toughest thing to do in sports.

Hitting a baseball with any sustained success whatsoever is an act of tremendous athletic prowess. It is the ultimate demonstration of hand/eye coordination. It is one of the few acts in sports where pure talent or pure practice just isn’t enough, you must combine the two.

To be a good hitter you must first be a good hitter. Yeah that’s circular logic, I know but it’s true. Without the base level of extraordinary talent you can never succeed in the big league level.

Most of the people who pitch in the big leagues were acquired as youngsters (through the draft or as international free agents) without regard for their hitting prowess. Because of this they just don’t have the base skill necessary.

Then, just in case that isn’t enough hitters have to work at it. The endless batting practice and video study these guys do is relentless. Obviously pitchers at the MLB level are too busy working on their pitching skills to spend the necessary time practicing the art and science of hitting.

That is the crux of the matter in my view. The fact is that at the little league and high school levels pure physical talent is enough to get a hitter by. A 17 year old kid who is going to be an MLB pitcher is probably so much more talented than his similarly aged brethren that he can get by. Once he reaches the Majors that physical talent isn’t going to be enough to get it done.

Expectations

Reader Manny Mota had an interesting comment on the Recap/Preview from last night. Besides some real interesting stuff about Randy Newsom (thanks Manny!) he had some good insight about John Smoltz. I’ve parsed it a bit for space but not content I hope;

“If he (Smoltz) is ineffective for any reason…and the Sox lose, does it take any luster off the fact they've won the first two games of this series…?…I just think it’s too much to the point of being set up for a letdown. The general consensus is that Smoltz is the anti-Daisuke and will rid the Sox and their fans of tedious 5-inning/3+ hour games.”

This is a well considered statement from Manny. I want to break it up a bit, not entirely in order, and make some comments;

(if) the Sox lose, does it take any luster off the fact they've won the first two games of this series?

I don’t think so. It is my belief that expecting a sweep at the MLB level is never a wise move. If you just continue to win series at the end of the year you are playing baseball in October. It’s nice to get a sweep when you can but two out of three with any consistency is a nice pathway to 95-100 wins.

If he (Smoltz) is ineffective for any reason…I just think it’s too much to the point of being set up for a letdown.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. We have to remember that while he has made his rehab assignments this guy has not pitched at the big league level since June 2nd of last year and has not made a start at that level since April 27th of last year. It is probably a lot to ask that he be sharp.

Like I said in my preview, I want to see some control and velocity. If he makes a few mistakes and gives up some rockets I don’t think we should be surprised. It’s important to temper our expectations.

The general consensus is that Smoltz is the anti-Daisuke and will rid the Sox and their fans of tedious 5-inning/3+ hour games.

The fact is Smoltz is likely to do this. He is a very different pitcher from Daisuke. Daisuke is a pitcher who is frustrating to watch even when he is going well (see 2008) and obviously he has been awful in 2009.

The fact is that in this decade only 20 pitchers have pitched as many innings as Matszuaka has in 2009 with an ERA as bad or worse than his. It is nearly impossible for Smoltz to be as bad as Matsuzaka has been.

However, there is a LONG way between Daisuke Matsuzaka’s 2009 season and “good.” John Smoltz is a 42 year old pitcher coming off an arm injury. Will he be better than Matsuzaka? Almost certainly. Will he be good? That is still an open question and one that should not be assumed to be answered “yes” with any decisiveness.

Game 71 Recap/Game 72 Preview

BOS – 000 312 000 – 6 – 7 – 0
WAS – 010 002 100 – 4 – 8 – 0

The Sox notched the victory behind a solid effort from Jon Lester and some timely long balls. With the win the local nine ensured they would win their fifth consecutive series and sixth out of seven.

The timely offense came in the fourth. With runners at first and third and one out Bay whiffed. Ortiz made sure the Sox dodged the squander by launching a three run shot into the centerfield seats. Varitek later added a long two run home run to give the Sox a cushion they would need.

- I loved what Lester did in the fourth. After the Sox gave him the lead he came out and worked an easy 1-2-3 frame to get back in the dugout. I have no idea if it makes sense statistically but I am a firm believer in the idea that a lead is never “true” until it has been sustained for three outs. Unfortunately Lester was not so effective in the sixth inning.

- The Sox have been a bit fortunate in each of the first two games. On Tuesday in the fourth inning the Nats loaded the bases with one out but had the 8th hitter and pitcher’s spot due up. In the 2nd inning on Thursday the same set of circumstances came up.

It is particularly important when you face a lesser offensive team or against an NL team (with the pitcher batting) to just make sure you avoid letting the few big bats in the lineup come up with men on base. The Sox almost saw that bite them when Zimmerman batted in the 7th and came about five feet short of tying the game.

- In the 6th with men at second and third and no outs Lester fielded a grounder and turned to hold the runner (Guzman) at third. Guzman was hung up and Lester began a rundown that ended successfully.

Frankly, while it’s the right play, I think I’d prefer the pitcher to just make the play at first. Engaging in the rundown produces the chance for an obstruction call or a ball being thrown away. With the five run lead I’d have been perfectly content to concede the run and get the out at first.

It’s not that easy though as it’s a play that is drilled into the pitcher’s head from a young age and the WORST result would be to start to hold the runner, then turn to throw to first and not get anyone out.

- The Sox defense bailed out Justin Masterson in the 7th with Kotsay and Ellsbury making fine plays to avoid what could have been a disastrous inning.

Frankly, I was questioning the decision to go to Masterson at the start of the inning. The Nats for the inning had a righty scheduled, then the pitchers spot which was sure to be a lefty pinch hitter, then two more switch hitters. Lefties hit the 24 year old righty pretty well and I felt Okajima would have been a better choice there.

Belated Good: I was remiss last night in not congratulating Dusty Brown on making his Major League debut in the ninth inning of last night’s game. Welcome to Baseball-Reference.com Dusty!

Good: Congratulations to David Ortiz for notching career RBI # 1,000 (and 1,001 and 1,002) on his homer in the fourth.

RBI #1 – Ron Coomer – 9/8/1997
RBI #500 – Kevin Youkilis – 5/8/2005 (2)
RBI #1,000 – Dustin Pedroia – 6/24/2009

Bad: Justin Masterson did not have good stuff. He escaped major damage in the 7th only through the largesse of Kotsay (diving stab of Harris’ grounder) and Ellsbury (running grab at the fence in left-center off Zimmerman).

Ugly: The Sox lost a run in the fifth when Drew’s liner to left hopped over the wall for a double with Pedroia only advancing to third. What makes this ugly is the insistence of people (including me) to refer to this as a “ground rule” double.

This is not a ground rule. A ground rule is something specific to the park in question such as a ball that hits to the right of the yellow line in center at Fenway is a home run. What this is is a rule book double. Specifically rule 6.09 (e) which states;

“A fair ball, after touching the ground, bounds into the stands…over or under a fence…in which case the batter and the runners shall be entitled to advance two bases”

Yes this bothers me.
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Game 72

Opponent: Washington Nationals

Park: Nationals Park

Pitchers: John Smoltz (3-2, 2.57 in 2008) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (2-3, 5.03)

Randomness: All eyes will be on the Red Sox 42 year old right-hander. It’s hard to really have an opinion of what to watch for with Smoltz. Apparently he is going to be working on about a 90 pitch limit which means the Sox will likely need some help from the bullpen to get through this one.

Smoltz as a pitcher has been somewhat similar to Schilling since returning to a starting role in 2005. He pounds the strike zone and is especially adept at getting ahead in the count with first pitch strikes and generally tends to be fairly efficient.

Pitchers coming back from injury can be tricky to evaluate. Generally I like to look at control as a big part of it. If Smoltz is hitting his spots that’s a good sign that he’s feeling OK. The other thing that I want to see is how quickly he gets loose.

We saw a bit of that earlier in the year with Penny who seemed to have problems reaching peak velocity for a couple of innings. PitchFx and FanGraphs put Smoltz’ velocity at 92-93 since his 2005 return to the rotation so it will be worth seeing if he can come out at that level or needs to build to it.

Unrelated to Smoltz I just want to point out that yes, pitcher Jordan Zimmermann uses two “Ns” at the end of his name while teammate and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman uses just one.

Game 70 Recap/Game 71 Preview

BOS – 010 110 161 – 11 – 17 – 0
WAS – 100 101 000 – 3 – 7 – 1

The Sox broke open a close game late as Jason Bay put the cherry on a four hit night with a two run single and Jacoby Ellsbury tripled in two more. The lead in the AL East keeps going in the right direction and with the Yankee defeat is now five games.

This was a fun game. You had some of the classic strategic decisions that come with NL baseball coming into play, some key base running moments and some fine defense on both sides of the ball.

- The first bit of NL baseball came in the 4th. With two outs and Ellsbury at third Manny Acta intentionally passed Green to pitch to Penny and get out of the inning. This is more conservative than I like. I would have pitched to Green, he’s not a great hitter and if I can get him out I have Penny leading off the 5th, a big edge to the pitcher. The worst that realistically happens there is Green gets a hit and you’re down 3-1 instead of 2-1, not a big blow.

By doing this Pedroia led off the fifth. He singled and later scored thanks to some good base running. First he got a good jump on a ball that got away from Bard who inexplicably didn’t throw to second on the play then Pedroia read Youkilis’ liner well and was able to score from second easily.

- More NL baseball in the sixth. With one out and Ellsbury at third Terry Francona had a decision; let Penny hit or pinch hit and go for the run. He let Penny hit, I would have pinch hit.

Penny was at 88 pitches and I felt had one inning at best left in him. With the Red Sox strong bullpen I felt that bringing home the extra run would have been worth more to the Sox than an extra inning of Penny.

- Excellent hustle by 2nd baseman Alberto Gonzalez in the 7th. When Zimmerman threw the ball away on Youkilis' grounder Gonzalez was in proper position due to his effort and was able to keep Youkilis out of scoring position.

- The base running was in play again in the 7th when Youkilis took advantage of the subpar skills of Adam Dunn in left on Bay’s bloop single. Bay to his credit was paying attention and boogied on down to second base on the play.

- Lowell made a fine play in the bottom of the 7th when he speared a Guzman liner and whipped a throw to first for the double play. He has quite clearly lost some range but his hands remain excellent. Gonzalez (the player doubled off) had no chance as the ball was hit so hard with Lowell in on the grass.

- Jacoby Ellsbury muscled up in the 4th smashing one deep to centerfield that just missed getting out. He has increased the frequency he goes up the middle or to left from 75% to 80% in 2009. I think this is a sign that he is growing as a hitter.

With his two triple game he became just the third Red Sox player this decade to record two triples in a game joining Johnny Damon (5/19/03) and (tee hee) David Ortiz in the first game of a doubleheader on June 22, 2004 (Abe Alvarez’ only MLB start).

The club (and MLB) record is three by Patsy Dougherty on May 3, 1903.

Good: Nick Green ended the third inning with a sensational play grabbing a bouncing ball on the right side of second, reaching back to tag the runner who was going on the pitch (Guzman) then rolled over to throw to first and complete the double play.

Bad: The camera angle from behind home plate was terribly disorienting. It was like watching Spring Training highlights.

Ugly: I’ve watched a lot of baseball in my life but I’m pretty sure I’ve never seen a rosin bag exchanged for a new one has happened during the second inning. I did enjoy the home plate umpire Tim Tschida looking closely at the new one to make sure it was legit.
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Game 71

Opponent: Washington Nationals

Park: Nationals Park

Pitchers: Jon Lester (5-6, 4.69) vs. Craig Stammen (1-2, 4.76)

Randomness: Disappointing news out of Kansas City where it was announced that centerfielder Coco Crisp would miss the remainder of the season due to shoulder surgery.

I can’t help but feel bad for Crisp who really was a fun guy to root for. The results were never what the Red Sox hoped after acquiring him in a seven player deal from the Indians. Let’s look at what has happened since to the players in that deal.

Cleveland gets:
Andy Marte – Acquired for Edgar Renteria earlier in the off-season and rated one spot ahead of Hanley Ramirez by Baseball America Marte was a hot prospect. He has never put it together with a .603 OPS in the Bigs. He is hanging in there and at only 25 has time to right the ship.

Kelly Shoppach – He has become one of the best backup catchers in the game though he’s having a down year. Still, a .774 career OPS is pretty darn good. Who would have imagined he’d be the most valuable property in the deal.

Guillermo Mota - Previously acquired in the deal that brought Beckett and Lowell to Boston. Mota’s career hasn’t been the same since leaving Los Angeles in 2004 save for a short stint with the Mets in 2006. He was suspended 50 games in 2007 for violating the drug policy.

PTBNL – Randy Newsom was the player sent on 7/21/06 to complete the deal. Newsom gained some notoriety for starting an internet business where minor league players could “sell” themselves. To the best of my knowledge trading was suspended due to some sort of legal issue with the SEC.

Boston gets:
Coco Crisp – Never quite put it together for the Sox though his electric defense was a key part of the World Championship team leading the league in runs allowed in 2007.

Josh Bard – Bard struggled mightily with the Sox before being dealt to San Diego. He flourished with the Padres for two years before a disappointing 2008. After spending part of the Spring in Ft. Myers he went to Washington where he’s done a decent job.

David Riske – He pitched well before being dealt for Javier Lopez (I don’t want to talk about it) and pitched well for Chicago the rest of ’06. After a great ’07 with KC he went to Milwaukee and has been a bust for the Brew Crew and is out for 2009 with arm surgery.

Game 70 Preview

Opponent: Washington Nationals

Park: Nationals Park

Pitchers: Brad Penny (6-2, 4.94) vs. John Lannan (4-5, 3.38)

Randomness: Reader mike b had an interesting take on Jose Canseco. Mike wrote;

“Yes, Jose Canseco is a nitwit. But how much of the antipathy directed toward him stems from the fact that we are so uncomfortable with what he has to say?”

and compared Canseco to a player of a different time, Jim Bouton. Bouton was the author of the highly controversial “Ball Four” in which he disclosed many secrets of Major League players.

This is an interesting point and one that has noodled around the vast space between my ears for quite awhile now. To me there were two major differences between Canseco and Bouton;

1. Intent – Bouton’s intent seemed to be to simply tell the “real” story of Major League Baseball. Canseco’s intent seemed at best financially driven and at worst to harm others.

2. Integrity – Bouton rather famously spent the 1969 season wandering around with a notebook recording the events that happened. Canseco’s writings and discussions post-playing career appeared to be scattershot. It seems that he just threw a bunch of names out without any evidence.

Ultimately that to me is the difference between the two. It seems like Bouton wrote carefully and with attention to detail. Canseco seemed to throw a bunch of stuff at the wall and see what stuck.

Maybe I’m being hypocritical but I don’t see Canseco and Bouton as being equivalent. Canseco has been shown to be right but it’s right the way a grenade dropped into a crowd is accurate. If you spray your fire in enough directions you are going to get some hits and that is what Canseco has done.

What is most telling regarding the two men is their performances post-book. Canseco has been nothing short of a farce humiliating himself frequently. By contrast Bouton has often spoken eloquently on a number of subjects. His efforts in Pittsfield, MA to preserve the park there were selfless and his intelligence has often come through.

Jim Bouton and Jose Canseco each wrote a controversial “inside look” book. That is where the similarities end. Bouton is an intelligent and thoughtful man. You may disagree with his opinions but he clearly gives some thought to his words.

On the other hand while the orifice Canseco uses to speak with can also be used to take your temperature, it may not be the preferred method. Because of that his words often come with a stink that no amount of randomly generated accuracy can erase.

Minor League Update

Haven’t done a Minor League Update in awhile have I? Why not now?

Pawtucket – 37-31

- Clay Buchholz is working on year number three as a feature in the MLU. His performance so far (5-0, 1.90 in eleven starts) is that of a guy ready for another shot. The multi-disabled Beckett, the two 40+ starters and the Verducci Effect candidate should give Buchholz a chance at some point.

- Offense is at a premium for the PawSox. Aaron Bates is an interesting sort. The 1st baseman has hit for an .822 OPS in thirteen games since his promotion. The 2006 3rd rounder is 25 years old, the same age as Kevin Youkilis in 2004. Like Youk Bates has done nothing but produce as a minor leaguer.

- Dusty Brown, the catcher called up Sunday to replace Matsuzaka on the roster, has not hit a lot. His power in 2009 is down with an ISO below .100 after being over .170 the last two years.

- After a rough start Charlie Zink has been pitching better and has the ERA down to 4.36. His BB rate is still high while his K rate is very low however. At 29, you have to question how much time he has left.

Portland – 32-36

- Lars Anderson has started to pick it up. The 21 year old has been hitting over .300 in June with a .391 OBP. All seven of his home runs on the season are off righties.

- Catcher Mark Wagner is putting himself into the mix as a Varitek replacement. He is hitting .309 with exceptional plate discipline and doubles power (17 in 38 games). He has also gunned down 9 of 27 base runners (33%).

- Josh Reddick has scuffled since returning from injury hitting just .239 in June.

- LHP Felix Doubront is continuing his solid season. He is now 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA with a K per inning. In his last eight starts he has allowed just ten earned runs.

- RHP Junichi Tazawa keeps on impressing. His 2.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP are excellent while his nearly 3:1 K:BB ratio auger future success.

- RHP T.J. Large is one of those minor league pitchers who keep hanging around and someday get a shot. At 26 he’s a bit old but he has a career 3.31 ERA and that certainly isn’t hurt by his 0.78 ERA in 2009.

Salem – Hi A – 32-37

- Luis Exposito is the catching prospect considered by many to be the best internal option to replace Varitek down the road. So far he has a .785 OPS and has thrown out 24% of base stealers.

- After a horrendous April centerfielder Che-Hsuan Lin is doing a nice job. The leadoff style hitter has an OBP up to .345 and is 14-18 in stolen base attempts (11 for his last 13). He also has nine assists on the season.

- RHP/SS Casey Kelly may prefer short but he is locking himself into a mound slot pretty conclusively. Since his call up to Hi A he has a 2.51 ERA and a 24:3 K:BB ratio in 28.2 IP.

Greenville – Lo A – 39-29

- Another catcher, this one Tim Federowicz is slugging away. He is hitting .345 with ten homers in 55 games. Between Kottaras, Wagner, Exposito and Federowicz it seems the Sox might have one future catcher in the bunch.

- The great story that is cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo has continued. Rather than showing signs of fatigue he is picking up his game as the “summer” begins (what’s with the weather by the way?) hitting .366 over his last 18 games with twelve extra base hits.

- OF David Mailman has 23 XBH in 58 games while stealing 10 of 12 bases.

- Maybe, just maybe, IF Will Middlebrooks is turning a corner. The Freddy Fave hit under .200 the first two months but has hit .314 with seven extra base hits in 14 June affairs.

- RHP Stolmy Pimentel has a 2.01 ERA with 52 K in 58.1 IP while having allowed one home run all season.

- Nick Hagadone has returned from his 2008 Tommy John surgery. After two solid outings he got knocked around a bit in his last start but still has a 9:2 K:BB ratio.

- In five starts since his return May 30th RHP Stephen Fife has been dominant with a 0.90 ERA and 19 K against just one walk in twenty innings.

Lowell – Short Season A – 2-1

- The Spinners are just under way. 20 year old LHP Jose Alvarez is coming off a rough 2008 and a 4.81 ERA at Salem in 2009. In his first start with Lowell he fanned seven walking none over six innings.

Donald Fehr

It has been announced that Donald Fehr is stepping down as Executive Director of the Major League Baseball Players’ Association. This is a momentous occasion as Fehr has spent over a quarter of a century in this role.

As is to be expected with such a role, Fehr is reviled in some circles, applauded in others. The third Executive Director of MLBPA he first took over in 1983 succeeding Ken Moffett who had a short tenure replacing the legendary Marvin Miller.

Fehr has been at the helm of a tumultuous time for Major League Baseball. Early on in his tenure there was a short-lived strike in 1985 which ended with Major League Baseball agreeing to increase minimum salaries from $40,000 to $60,000 per year and contribute $138 million to the MLBPA Pension Fund.

In the off-season after the 1986 World Series MLB first engaged in the activities that would later be declared to be illegal collusion. Over the ‘86/’87 and ‘87/’88 off-seasons many high profile players including Red Sox’ catcher Rich Gedman and superstar outfielder Tim Raines found themselves completely without offers.

It was Fehr who led the efforts that eventually resulted in a $280 million settlement with the owners for this activity. Since taking over in 1983 the average salary has risen from $289,000 per year to $2.9 million per year.

The 1994 season was the lowest point of MLB since 1920 with a strike over a salary cap and revenue sharing unresolved. Current Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor issued a ruling on March 30, 1995 (thanks Wikipedia!) that prohibited MLB from “unilaterally implementing a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) and using replacement players.

Fehr was instrumental in that time in keeping an increasingly nervous MLBPA from splintering. Eventually he also showed an iron hand as he was considered one of the driving forces that kept “scabs”/”replacement players” (you pick) from being eligible for the union.

This group included Red Sox’ pitcher/outfielder Ron Mahay and 2004 hero Kevin Millar among others. This is not just an honorary issue as it also keeps these players from collecting money on marketing materials which include things as mundane as baseball cards to in some cases not being included on t-shirts representing championship teams.

Donald Fehr is disliked by many baseball fans but at the end of the day, like kindred spirit Scott Boras, he is just an advocate. He has a job to do and he does it with generally great effectiveness.

By the same token, he is hardly someone to warm up to. When the 1994 season was cancelled Fehr was in the middle of it. As the PED scandal raged Fehr was just as liable as Selig (if not more so) in not taking an active role to protect his constituents from themselves. In his role to look out for the well-being of his members he may have erred in not trying to do something to eradicate the stain of PEDs from the game.

On the plus side Fehr has been a much more conciliatory Executive Director than his friend Marvin Miller was (and based on comments at the SABR convention a couple of years ago more than Miller would be today). Fehr has come to consensus with MLB on issues such as luxury taxes, revenue sharing and drug testing. MLB as a business is more successful today than others and the players are better for it.

It should be noted that under Fehr’s guidance MLB has been without a work stoppage since 1995, the longest stretch since the formation of the MLBPA. Fehr has been part of the reason for that as an active and effective voice for his constituents.

That Fehr was an iron-willed advocate is not a negative. He has proven a willingness to concede points while at other times a willingness to fight aggressively if a member is wronged. Donald Fehr is neither a bad or good person in this discussion but a man who was given a job and did it to the best of his ability.

Marvin Miller praised him pointing out that "(Fehr) had a membership where not a single player had played one game of baseball without a union. That could be a challenge at times, and he faced it quite successfully." Former adversary Commissioner Fay Vincent called Fehr's career "a superb one."

You may feel this piece is unfairly positive in its treatment of Fehr. Part of this is my own personal bias in favor of unions and the MLBPA in general. Beyond that you cannot write the story of Fehr without accepting his role. You may feel unions are bad, that is fine, but if you accept that Fehr's role is to be an advocate for his union then you must concede his successes.

As I said above he is not perfect, but he has been an effective advocate for his constituents. Many will revel in his departure but it is likely that his successor (Michael Weiner) will be equally passionate.

Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Wikipedia and MLB.com all were sources for this. As a note the only time I use Wikipedia is when they themselves provide a source.

Weekend Recap

The Sox took two out of three from the Braves during an entertaining weekend of baseball. We saw the fans involved in both a positive (reaction to Lowe) and negative (reaction to Matsuzaka) way and the weekend was capped with a walk-off home run from Green.

Thanks to their own success and the Marlins taking two of three from the Bronx Bombers in South Florida the Sox head to the nation’s capital with a season high four game lead in the American League East.

Friday

- Daisuke Matsuzaka certainly did not have it on Friday night. One thing that occurs to me is that teams seem to be swinging more aggressively this year, earlier in the count, than in the past. FanGraphs shows that he has gone from having hitters swing at a below average frequency in 2008 to slightly above average in 2009.

Matsuzaka’s style is laborious to watch and may be similarly tiresome for a hitter. Perhaps some increased aggression works in the hitters favor as hitters get to hit the pitch they want rather than the one he wants.

- On the other hand you have to nod to Kenshin Kawakami who pitched quite well. He seemed to work quickly which anecdotally is unusual for the Japanese pitchers (Matsuzaka, Okajima, Nomo to name a few slow workers).

- The rotation logjam sorted itself out somewhat predictably with Daisuke going on the Disabled List. According to Terry Francona this is going to be measured in months not weeks so it is incumbent on Smoltz/Buchholz to pitch well and pretty much locks Penny into a Red Sox uniform for the remainder of the season I would think.

Saturday

- Gracious me what a performance from Josh Beckett. He is dominating right now. He’s been a bit hit lucky lately but his improvement since being battered by Tampa has been two areas;

* Control – He has dramatically improved his control walking one batter per 15.6 PA in his last ten starts after walking one every 8.5 PA in his first five.

* Power – Early on he was allowing a lot of extra base hits with a .151 Isolated Power. Since the Tampa pounding he has allowed an Isolated Power of just .086.

When you cut your walks and extra base hits allowed in half good things happen. (really, where else you gonna get that kind of wisdom?)

- The one key moment for Beckett came with two on, one out in the 8th. Beckett fell behind Francoeur 3-1 but got Francoeur to bounce back to the mound for a 1-6-3 DP. Francoeur certainly has the power to have turned that pitch into a 3-3 tie but Beckett had good sinking action. Francoeur to his credit seemed to have a good pitch to hit, he just didn’t hit it.

- Jason Varitek had a strong game offensively. Terry Francona was asked in the post-game press conference if familiarity was a part of it. Tito pointed out that plenty of folks have seen Lowe but when he’s making his pitches it does not matter much.

I suspect that where Varitek may have benefited was from understanding. There is nothing like watching a pitcher up close to appreciate the importance of just going with the pitch rather than trying to pull him and that’s what ‘Tek did in order to succeed.

- Jacoby Ellsbury made a sensational catch on a drive by Francoeur in the 3rd. The numbers suggest that Ellsbury is still a middle of the road defender but I think with experience he will get much better. It seems to me that he still gets questionable jumps on balls.

What he does very well though is read the direction of the ball. He doesn’t get away quickly but he seems to take good routes to the ball and of course his closing speed is sensational. His grab on Saturday night also showed excellent awareness of his environment picking the right moment to slide and he does not seem to mis-time jumps or dives.

- Dustin Pedroia struggled in the leadoff spot again and now has a career .666 OPS in that slot. While this is over 70 games in three plus years I think this is random.

Pedroia hits well leading off an inning (.797 OPS) and has his best performances facing a pitcher the first time (.915 OPS) through. I don’t think there is anything to his struggles in the leadoff spot other than it being random chance.

Sunday

- This was the Tim Wakefield Special. Wake struggled in the first and looked like he might be headed for an early shower. He then settled in as the Sox offense awoke in the bottom of the first. Wake pitched very well in innings two through six before getting in some trouble in the seventh.

- The bullpen was sub-par on Father’s Day. Ramirez was fortunate to escape when Youkilis made a diving stab of the line drive and then Okajima and Papelbon combined to allow six base runners in two innings but fortunately just one run.

- Papelbon was a bit fortunate in the ninth. He was wrong to argue the call on the 0-2 pitch to Diaz which was (barely) a ball and then Jonathan seemed to lose his cool and greatly overthrew his next pitch but Diaz was kind enough to swing and miss at the ball nearly over his head and Kottaras did a fine job to grab it and not let it go to the backstop.

- Nick Green was the hero but he was nearly the goat. He made a very poor decision on the ground ball by Johnson to try and turn two and came close to throwing the ball away with Papelbon making a fine play to reach back and grab the ball.

- The walk-off homer was the second of Green's career. The first came July 2, 2004 when he hit a sacrifice fly in the 10th off Keith Foulke to tie the game then the three run shot to win it in the 12th off Anastacio Martinez. The four RBI that night are also a career high for Green.

- For the third time in ten days David Ortiz hit a ball in the air that dropped, this time untouched when Escobar and Jones played a game of “I’ve got it not you’ve got it.”

I ripped Ortiz the other day but in this instance I don’t blame him for not reaching second. He was running out of the box and with the ball not particularly high and on the infield I don’t think he could have made second base safely.

- You gotta feel for Brave hurler Jeff Bennett, one pitch, 305 feet, ball game. Green must have hit the ball reasonably well though the way the wind was blowing all day.

Good: Lovely moment Saturday night when Derek Lowe left the game in the 7th and was given a long, warm ovation from the fans at Fenway. He tipped his cap graciously and was rewarded with even louder cheers.

Bad: I recently read a great theory I love. You’ve heard of the “Mendoza Line”, well this person referred to the “Leiter Line.”

The Leiter Line refers to former pitcher Al Leiter who spent significant time in the National League and was an AWFUL hitter. Leiter, who had a career OPS of .243 (take a moment for that one) walked once every 17.5 PA.

The theory is that this is as rarely as a pitcher will walk a hitter since there was no reason not to throw him a strike if you could. Any hitter who walks less than this is clearly helping the pitcher.

Jeff Francoeur walks once every 24.3 PA, 39% less often than Leiter did.

And Daisuke walked him on Friday night.

Bad Daisuke, bad! If I could have whacked Matsuzaka in the nose with a rolled up newspaper I would have.

Ugly: Chipper Jones really hurt his team on Sunday afternoon by being ejected. The Braves had two at bats go to Kelly Johnson (who went 1 for 2) that would have gone to Chipper. Jones had every right to be upset about the missed call in Drew’s at bat but he has to maintain his composure.

Sunday Notes

Note: Use of the word “negro” throughout this piece is meant to reflect the attitudes of the time and not meant in an insulting manner. As I wrote it I found that using the modern accepted term “African-American” pulled me out of the moment.

On Saturday the White Sox and Reds took part in the third annual “Civil Rights Game.” This is a time when MLB attempts to do some good and call attention to the “the efforts Major League Baseball has made to create a level playing field for players and fans from all races and backgrounds.”

In considering what to right about this game I stumbled upon a story I was little familiar with. The story is of a man named Johnny Wright.

Wright was a left-handed pitcher who was signed by the Brooklyn Dodgers on January 29, 1946. What made this signing newsworthy is that Wright was the second “negro” to sign with a Major League team (the same one as Robinson, the first, had signed with obviously). Wright was assigned to the Montreal Royals of the AAA International League and was Robinson’s roommate for a time during the future Hall of Famer’s season in Montreal.

There was some speculation that this was the reason for his acquisition. He was not signed as a pitcher but as a running mate similar to the way the signing of Hideki Okajima was viewed prior to the 2007 season.

This was not entirely fair as Wright had shined with the Homestead Grays of the Negro Leagues including a 25 win season among his accomplishments. Of Wright the famous African-American writer Sam Lacy wrote “Wright doesn't boast the college background that is Jackie’s, but he possesses something equally valuable, a level head and the knack of seeing things objectively."

For better or worse Wright was evaluated on his on-field accomplishments and in 1946 they were few. He was assigned to Class C Trois-Rivieres (Three Rivers) in the Canadian-American Class C league (Class C was a level of minor league baseball that no longer exists).

With Trois-Rivieres Wright was teamed with another “negro” teammate Roy Partlow after Partlow’s unsuccessful turn in Montreal. Wright shined after Partlow’s arrival and finished 12-8 then earned victories in the final two games of the championship series against the Pittsfield, MA Indians with Partlow’s hit sealing the final game.

Wright was released after the season and never again played organized ball outside the Negro League. Like Robinson Wright was held to a higher standard and manager Frenchy Bordagaray remembered Wright and Partlow in 1995 saying “They were just perfect. They had to be. Otherwise, I was a dead duck, and so were they. Sure, it was a sensitive job. We were breaking down the color barrier.”

It is possible that Wright was just a little too nice in fact. In Jackie Robinson’s autobiography he writes sympathetically that Wright “was a good pitcher, but I feel he didn't have the right kind of temperament to make it with the International League in those days. He couldn't withstand the pressure of taking insult after insult without being able to retaliate. It affected his pitching that he had to keep his temper under control all the time.”

Jackie Robinson’s contribution to the game of baseball and our country can’t be overstated. He did not do it alone though, other famous men like Larry Doby, Don Newcombe and so many others were there with him and so too were unheralded men like Johnny Wright, doing their part to bring us forward as a people.

Baseball-Reference does not list a date of death for Wright who was born in November, 1916. If he is still alive he would be 92 years old and an enterprising reporter would do well to seek him out and pump him for first hand information on what had to have been a fascinating experience.

Minor League Baseball.com and the above mentioned Baseball-Fever provided information for most of this piece.
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Jose Canseco apparently is considering suing Major League Baseball because he feels he has been ostracized by the game. The ridiculousness of his proposed lawsuit is off the charts but the idea of litigation targeted at the whole league is one that should keep owners unnerved.

The litigation does not need to be over the PED issue, it could be over any issue, but the idea of a lawsuit that requires MLB to disclose financial information could be bad news for the game.

MLB has done very well for many years. They are raking in money at a tremendous clip ($6 billion in 2007) while at the same time paying a lower percentage of their revenue to the players in the form of salaries than the NFL, NBA or NHL. With this windfall at their disposal they’ve managed on a consistent basis to get the fans (i.e. you and me) to foot the bill in the form of tax dollars on stadium after stadium.

Incredibly this has been overlooked pretty regularly by the fans. For some reason the players, not the owners, are the ones criticized for being greedy and overpaid. The reason this myth is perpetuated is largely due to the mainstream media in yet another sterling example of their inside information giving this myth validation.

This is why a lawsuit that exposed the books of MLB would have such potential for embarrassment. While salary figures are public record the revenues earned and the day to day operational costs of MLB are not always fully disclosed. Owners love to cry poverty but you’ll notice these guys don’t sell their teams at a loss, they are doing just fine.

MLB has very actively avoided disclosing financial information over the years. They do this because they know that if that happens the media won’t be able to ignore the facts and the fans will know the truth; MLB is a moneymaking force. The days of owners in “small markets” being able to just peddle players along will be gone and local governments will rightly insist that teams spend their own money so taxpayer dollars can be used for little things like education and law enforcement.

Jose Canseco is a nitwit not worth our time. A lawsuit targeted at MLB as a whole is something that MLB greatly wants to avoid though.
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On Friday night I attended the Red Sox-Braves game at Fenway. As you are doubtlessly aware the Red Sox lost 7-2 largely due to Daisuke Matsuzaka getting knocked around. What struck me though was the vicious response of the fans at that game.

I have to confess I have never gotten into the whole booing thing. I get that people get frustrated when their players fail but I think it’s safe to assume that players want to succeed just as much as we want them to succeed. The only time I feel booing is appropriate is when a player is not putting forth effort.

One of my biggest pet peeves though is inconsistency and that has been on display with regards to the treatment of Daisuke Matsuzaka this year.

In 2007 Matsuzaka was acquired and while he wasn’t great, he was pretty good until a late season slide spoiled his numbers. His post-season was a bit up and down but he was the winning pitcher in Game Seven of the ALCS and then was excellent in Game Three of the World Series.

In 2008 Matsuzaka may have been frustrating but he led the Sox in victories and ERA and then pitched masterfully in Game One of the ALCS. All this went on while he performed with a smile on his face, never criticizing teammates and by all accounts working as hard as anyone.

Contrast that with everyone’s favorite .207 hitting designated hitter. Even more than Matsuzaka, David Ortiz has been instrumental in the Red Sox winning two World Series and playing in four ALCS in the last six years. To suggest David Ortiz hasn’t earned some leeway with the fan base of the Boston Red Sox would be ridiculous.

However, unlike Matsuzaka, Ortiz has called out teammates like his complaints last year that he missed Manny batting behind him, a clear dismissal of teammates Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay. Also, Ortiz on many occasions has failed to hustle including a critical failure on Thursday night that potentially cost the Sox a game.

I love David Ortiz, don’t get me wrong. And I have joined Red Sox fans in standing behind the big man as he tried to find his way out of this ugly early season slump. What I can’t grasp is the violent difference in the treatment of David Ortiz and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Both men have struggled mightily in 2009. Both men have provided dramatic moments and championships to the Boston Red Sox. Ortiz clearly is entitled to a little more leeway than Matsuzaka from the fans. The difference in fan response is not equivalent to the difference in performance in my view.

Root the way you want to. If you want to boo and scream at Daisuke go for it. I would be very curious to know why Matsuzaka who seems to care, absent evidence to the contrary, deserves to be ridiculed so mercilessly for eight bad starts.
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On Thursday afternoon the Yankees and Nationals waited out a rain delay of 5:41. That’s five HOURS and 41 minutes, not five minutes and 41 seconds. That is just asinine. I don’t know what the Yankees did or did not do for the fans that waited this one out but that’s just outrageous.

Most of the time it is up to the home team as to whether or not a game should start with the umpires taking control once the first pitch is thrown. In the final game of a season between two teams in a city it is Major League Baseball, not the home team, who decides how long to delay a game however. I say that MLB owes it to the people who attended that game and stayed to do something special because waiting out a delay of that length is true dedication.

On that front MLB could gain some nice PR points by allowing fans to get a refund or partial refund on tickets of postponed or even severely delayed games. The reality is that most fans would keep the tickets or the tickets would be resold anyway so very little money would be lost and the PR value would be very high.
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Let’s have a little look at some of the rookies who are making their mark so far in 2009. These are not necessarily the best performing rookies so far but just a few who have started the season with accomplishment;

Nolan Reimold – Baltimore – Reimold has established himself as the third part of a good Baltimore outfield with Markakis and Jones hitting .291 with eight homers. He has been lost in the impressive Baltimore system but the 2005 2nd round pick has risen steadily and solidly through their organization.

Elvis Andrus – Texas – The Rangers tempted fate moving perennial solid performer Michael Young to make room for the maybe not-ready-for-prime-time glove man. Andrus has played the great defense he was advertised for but has been decent offensively with plate discipline that is good enough to agument his efforts.

Colby Rasmus – St. Louis – The highly touted Cardinal outfielder was handed a regular job to some surprise after a rough 2008 season. So far the 22 year old has sparkled with an .813 OPS and proving that LaRussa’s faith in the youngster was well placed.

Andrew Bailey – Oakland – The Athletic reliever is yet another in a list of young Oakland hurlers performing well. He has secured the closer’s role for now in the Bay Area and with 49 strikeouts in 43 IP is showing quality stuff.

Jordan Zimmermann – Washington – Among other things this Zimmermann ensures that 3rd baseman Ryan Zimmerman is NOT last alphabetically on the Nationals’ roster. More importantly Zimmermann is part of the reason that the woeful Nats have some hope. With the expected addition of Strasburg the hope is he will form a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for years to come with his good control and K per inning ability.
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The annual Hall of Fame game will be played on Sunday. Like in the past the game will be an exhibition, unlike the past the game will not feature current Major League teams but will be made up of past players. One of the highlights of the game will be starting pitcher Bob Feller.

Feller who can be described in reserved fashion as “opinionated” has much to say about everything. One thing he said prior to this game struck a chord at FFHQ;

“I think all major league ballplayers should go visit Cooperstown and walk through the Hall of Fame. They’d be more appreciative of what this game means to the baseball world, not only the United States but the entire baseball world.”

This is a terrific point. It seems to me that we as a society are becoming less and less knowledgeable, or at least appreciative, of our history. We’ve all heard the saying that those who don’t know their history are doomed to repeat it. This is something I firmly agree with.

I don’t think this should be interpreted to mean that every event has a historical parallel that should be followed to a “T.” It just means that when we can use historical events to help us find the right path forward it should be done.

So why should Major League players know the history of the game? Why should they walk through Cooperstown? I can think of two reasons;

1. The first reason is educational. As a player it seems like it might not be a bad idea to find out what the best of the best in the history of the game did. I’m not saying that modern players should do everything Ty Cobb did but the guy hit .367 so it’s not insane to think his career might have something to offer.

2. The second reason frankly is a little more pragmatic. Many fans of baseball are fans of the history of the game. A player who can speak intelligently about the history of the game is going to appeal to fans and help sell the sport. Anything that sells the sport is good for Major League Baseball.

I’m not saying Major League ballplayers need to be SABR members and be able to recite chapter and verse the story of Ed Delahanty or recount a blow by blow account of the 1909 World Series. I don’t think it is a bad idea for players to know some of the basics of the history of the game though and I believe that would help MLB market itself.
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Time for yet another installment of my series on the period from 1976-1986. This week it’s a look at the top five third basemen of that era as well as one guy I choose at random to talk about. As with last week the only criteria are;

60% of games at the position
Minimum 2000 PA
Only his performance during those years is relevant

#5 – Graig Nettles – Rare has the marriage of player and stadium been as perfect as Nettles and Yankee Stadium. The House That Ruth Built could have been called The House Built for Puff (seriously, just a bad nickname, not my suggestion). Nettles was a lefty with a tremendous upper cut swing who regularly launched balls into the upper deck. Beyond that Nettles was a spectacular defensive player who played third with an acrobatic flair rarely seen at the position.

#4 – Ron Cey – The Penguin is one of my all time favorites. The nickname fit as Cey looked like a penguin but he was a thumper with five seasons over 25 home runs. Despite his build (think Matt Stairs without the height) he was durable playing 145 or more games every year from ’73 to ’85 except the strike year of ’81.

He also performed well when it counted earning World Series MVP honors in 1981 when after a terrifying beaning from Gossage in Game Five he returned to hit cleanup in Game Six and drive in the go ahead run as the Dodgers took the crown.

#3 – Wade Boggs – I’ll assume you are familiar with the former Red Sox’ star. He was pretty poor defensively when he came up but worked hard to become very good. His swing was incredibly short and quick and he became notorious for fouling off pitch after pitch.

#2 – George Brett – The easy description of Brett would be to say he was Boggs with power. The more accurate description would be the pre-wrist injury Nomar. A high average, line drive hitter who could display tremendous power at times. His 1980 season was a thing of beauty as he hit .390 (still the highest since Williams hit .406) but ’85 was his Mona Lisa. A career high 30 homers while earning his only Gold Glove then a tour de force in the ALCS with a 1.326 OPS and a .370 average as he got to enjoy his only World Series triumph.

#1 – Mike Schmidt – Not just the best of this era but any era. In the 11 years covered he hit 402 homers with a .388 OBP and .547 Slugging Percentage. Besides terrorizing opposing hitters he was also a ten time Gold Glove winner. Viewed as a “choker” for many years due to poor post-season performances he finally rose to the occasion in the 1980 World Series earning MVP honors as the Phillies finally took the title.

Special Mention – Buddy Bell – Bell was a terrific defensive player who was also an above average hitter. He did not have the power associated with the elite third basemen (only one 20 HR season) but he had a pretty discerning eye rarely striking out. He also was happier to see the Red Sox in town than most players as his .841 OPS against the Sox was his best against any AL team.
********************************************************************************
A little miscellaneous type stuff to close out the day;

- Peter Gammons wrote this week that the Sox will keep Brad Penny. We’ll see how things play out but one thing that I think people are assuming a little too easily is that Smoltz will pitch well and be healthy enough to pitch regularly. I hope he does but I don’t think it is a guarantee nor is the Sox good health in the rotation guaranteed to continue.

- Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus had some interesting notes on the risks of some of the new stadiums. I agree with his sentiments.

- The Sox became just the second team in the Retrosheet era (1954 and beyond) to play consecutive games without hitting a single this week. The Sox had one hit (Youkilis’ HR) on Thursday then on Friday got two hits (Bay 2B, HR) to match the “record” set by the Yankees July 15 & 16 in 2004 against Detroit.

The Yankees actually won one of their games (the 15th) as they hit five solo home runs off Jeremy Bonderman (4) and Wil Ledezma (1).

- And finally, I leave you with the words of Ralph Kiner;

“Today is Father’s Day so to all you fathers out there…Happy Birthday!”

Game 66 Recap/Weekend Preview

FLO – 020 00 – 2 – 8 – 1
BOS – 100 00 – 1 – 1 – 0

The Sox dropped a rain shortened affair to the Marlins 2-1. Despite this defeat they still possess a three game lead as the Yankees were thoughtful enough to drop two out of three to the woeful Nationals.

- Jon Lester did not exactly have his “A” game on Thursday. I wonder how much the rain impacted him. The rain delay at the start (a whopping five minutes) was brief but I wonder if it caused Lester to get out of his routine a bit. Pitchers are creatures of habit and maybe this caused him to use up some nervous energy or something.

I doubt it though. A 25-30 minute delay I could see being a problem, not long enough to rest between the usual start time and actual start time but not short enough to keep the routine the same. A 5-10 minute delay…probably not an issue.

- On the subject of Lester I wonder how big an impact the regression of Mike Lowell’s defense has impacted him. A large part of what we view as “pitching” is really “defense behind the pitcher.” As a lefty who features a cutter he gives up a lot of ground balls to the left side.

Combining Lowell’s less than stellar range and the disgrace that has been the Red Sox’ shortstop defense this year (though Green has been better lately) it seems that Lester would be the Red Sox hurler most likely to be hurt by weak left side infield defense. I don’t have the tools at my disposal to truly quantify this but I will point out two numbers (neither include Thursday’s start);

BABIP 2008: .300
BABIP 2009: .337

Opp. Avg. on Groundballs 2008: .227
Opp. Avg. on Groundballs 2009: .240

Admittedly, I expected both of these numbers to reflect larger increases so I wonder if the impact has truly been as big as I theorized above.

- Last Thursday David Ortiz hit a routine fly ball to left field in a one run game. The ball was dropped by the left fielder but because Ortiz was loafing he only reached first base. Exactly one week later he led off the fifth in a driving rainstorm with the Sox down a run and potentially getting their last shot he hit a high pop up.

With the play in front of him and able to see the wind start taking the ball on a ride he threw a little tantrum then loafed down the line again. When the ball was dropped he was only able to reach first base instead of being in scoring position to start the inning.

This is unacceptable. There is no other word for it. David Ortiz’ lackadaisical approach potentially cost the Sox’ a game. If he’s on second with no outs maybe Lowell makes a more concerted effort to go the other way and gets him to third and maybe Ellsbury is able to get him in.

And maybe not.

But we’ll never know because David Ortiz loafed for the second time in eight days. That this would be the Sox’ last at bat in this game was entirely predictable and Ortiz’ “hustle” was just terrible.

Good: I liked the decision by Francona to send Lester out to start the sixth. With Lester at 106 pitches and the rain pouring down Tito gambled a bit. While the game did not restart if it had and he had used Bard (or someone else) to start the sixth he would have likely had to replace that pitcher after the delay. It was a nifty bit of managing.

Bad: The Sox offense was pretty hideous in this one. Nolasco isn’t a true 7.52 ERA pitcher but one hit off him is not enough.

Ugly: David Ortiz. His cavalier approach may have cost the Sox a defeat.
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Weekend Preview

Opponent: Atlanta Braves

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers:

Friday – Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-4, 7.55) vs. Kenshin Kawakami (3-6, 4.54)
Saturday – Josh Beckett (7-3, 4.15) vs. Derek Lowe (7-4, 4.08)
Sunday – Tim Wakefield (9-3, 4.39) vs. Jair Jurrjens (5-5, 2.89)

Randomness: For the first time since April 11, 2005 the Red Sox will welcome Derek Lowe back to Fenway Park. Lowe was one of the most exasperating pitchers in my life as a Red Sox fan. He would go through these stretches both as a starter and a reliever where he would dominate but then look absolutely helpless out there as if he had no clue how to pitch.

The ironic thing of Derek Lowe’s career with the Red Sox though is that for a guy whose reputation for years was that he was soft Lowe pitched in some enormous moments for this team.

1998 – He was masterful against the Indians in the ALDS throwing a hard, diving sinker and keeping some very good hitters off balance.

1999 – Once again a solid performance in the playoffs with good work against both the Indians and the Yankees marred by one rough outing in Game Five of the ALDS.

2003 – This was where the Lowe began, in my mind at least, to shake the “soft moniker.” Called upon with runners at first and second and no outs in the bottom of the ninth of Game Five with the Sox clinging to a 4-3 lead he retired Hernandez on a sacrifice bunt then struck out Melhuse looking and after a walk to Singleton struck out Long looking in the most electric at bat I ever saw as a fan until Foulke whiffed Clark in Game Six a year later.

2004 – What can you say? He kept any complaints about being left out of the post-season rotation private and pitched well in relief to get the win in Game Three of the ALDS then turned in a solid “save the season” start in Game Four of the ALCS before spinning a brilliant performance in Game Seven. One week later, he slammed shut 86 years of frustration.

Lowe also was the subject of one of the most frustrated phone calls I’ve ever made. In the first game of the Yankee series that culminated in the “Nomar sits on the bench” game Lowe was fighting his way through trailing 4-2 when he appeared to be out of the fourth but Nomar committed an error to extend the inning. After a ball to Sheffield Lowe threw a cookie and Sheffield vaporized it for a 7-2 lead.

The next day I called a friend in Atlanta and must have spent 15 minutes raging “why can’t Lowe man up after an error? And why can’t this Francona guy call him out publicly? What is this team doing?”

On and on I went. I guess Tito knew what he was doing more than I did.

Anyway, Derek Lowe is back and I’ll never look at him with anything but fond memories again.

Game 65 Recap/Game 66 Preview

FLO – 100 000 000 – 1 – 6 – 0
BOS – 011 200 00x – 6 – 9 – 1

The Sox made it two in a row and helped Brad Penny became the 565th pitcher in Major League history with 100 career wins. A Yankee loss pushed the Sox to a season high three game lead in the AL East.

- Brad Penny had a good live fastball early but for some reason seemed to have some problems putting people away. He is an interesting contrast for Okajima. While Okajima does not appear to have dominating stuff hitters often look off balance against him while Penny seems like he has brilliant stuff but hitters often look comfortable against him.

Penny wasn’t overwhelming by any stretch of the imagination in this one but…five innings one unearned run is what it is. The guy just keeps pitching well and making Theo Epstein look smart (cause the two rings aren’t enough). I’ve been out front saying the Sox should trade him for any viable offer but it’s hard to believe Smoltz will be this good and Buchholz is certainly no guarantee.

Will it continue for Penny? That’s questionable but he’s looked pretty good for awhile now. What impresses me the most is in some of his earlier starts, even when he pitched well, his velocity seemed to take some time to get there. The last few starts he has come out throwing well right out of the chute.

- In the fourth the Sox got two runs when Pedroia punched a single to right-center. The key to the inning was a two out infield hit by Green when he got one on the fists and squibbed it past the mound towards Uggla who tried gamely but couldn’t make the play.

What impressed me on the play was how quickly Green got out of the box. A lot of times in that situation you will see a hitter who gets jammed like Green was stumble a bit getting out of the box but the Red Sox shortstop got up to speed in a hurry and beat the play.

- Ramon Ramirez was not very good. After a walk and a single he did a nice job to get out of it but was helped immensely when he threw Cody Ross five consecutive balls but Ross was thoughtful enough to swing and miss at two pitches well out of the zone.

It was like Ramirez was trying to prove the Bill James philosophy that the more relievers you use the more likely you are to find the one who doesn’t have it on a given night.

- Kevin Youkilis has been striking out quite a bit lately. With his three Ks on Wednesday night he has fanned in eleven straight games and is hitting .190 in that time. Youk has a good eye at the plate and some power so even when slumping he is fairly productive with a .340 OBP and a .381 slugging percentage. When an eleven game slump gives you a .721 OPS you are doing well.

Good: Let’s hear it for us!!! 500 consecutive sellouts at Fenway Park, way to go fans! You know, it’s pretty fashionable to bash Red Sox fans and Red Sox Nation and of course the dreaded “pink hats” but if you’ve been to this site over the years you know that doesn’t fly with me.

Baseball is the best game in the world and anything that brings people into this great game as fans is OK in my book. If people want to join me in rooting for my beloved Red Sox, all the better. If someone doesn’t know the nuances of the game, that’s OK, real baseball fans share their knowledge.

Bad: When trying to score from second on Pedroia’s single in the 8th Jason Varitek did a um… “bad” job of trying to avoid the leg of John Baker who was blocking the plate. It seemed like he was indecisive about how he wanted to go about it and eventually decided on the “I’ll just run into the catcher’s leg and trip and fall on my face” plan which was not a successful stratagem.

Ugly: Jacoby Ellsbury dropped a flyball attempting to make a running catch in the first inning. This was the first error of Ellsbury’s career which is pretty amazing when you think about it. Ellsbury has played all three outfield positions and has to contend with a lot out there.

The potential for an unavoidable error as an outfielder, a weird bounce, a throw that takes a bit of a weird hop, all sorts of funky things can happen.
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Game 66

Opponent: Florida Marlins

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers: Jon Lester (5-5, 4.76) vs. Ricky Nolasco (2-6, 7.62)

Randomness: It is hard to pinpoint what happened to Nolasco who was a solid pitcher for this team last year. His K rate is down a bit, his BB rate is up a bit, stuff like that but like his opponent on Thursday night he has been a victim of the dreaded BABIP with hitters having a .388 average on balls in play.

Where he has seen a problem is balls in the air. Nolasco, never a ground ball pitcher to begin with, has seen his groundball rate drop significantly. Meanwhile, he is getting a LOT fewer infield flies resulting in more true fly balls and those balls are falling in. Hitters are hitting .342 against Nolasco on fly balls versus a league average of just .228.

Long story short the Sox may have a chance to pepper the Monster on Thursday night.

Game 64 Recap/Game 65 Preview

FLO – 001 010 000 – 2 – 7 – 1
BOS – 011 600 00x – 8 – 13 – 0

The Sox opened their series against the Marlins with a resounding victory behind some solid pitching from the arm of Tim Wakefield and a “keep the train movin” offense in the fifth inning.

- Tim Wakefield had some control issues working in a hitter’s count a lot. Despite that he gave the Sox a solid six innings helped largely by a timely double play in the second inning after the first two had reached.

On the DP the ball was fielded by Green by the bag at second and he seemed to have ample time to step on the bag himself and throw to first to complete it. He elected instead to flip the ball to Pedroia for the pivot.

While the feed was good and the DP was turned it seemed like an unwise decision to me. Adding an unnecessary throw on a play like that is, well, unnecessary and adds one more event that can potentially be fouled up.

- In the bottom of the second the Sox got their first run due largely to the legs of Jacoby Ellsbury. After Jacoby singled with two out he stole second then scored when Green’s chopper behind the mound but in front of second bounced past both Uggla and Ramirez and Ellsbury raced home from second.

- Having complimented him earlier in the day Hanley Ramirez made what I felt were two mental errors in this game. The first one came on the hit by Green when I felt he did not properly position himself far enough behind Uggla to act as a proper backup. In fairness to Hanley on the play it looked initially like it would be his ball so he may not have had time to adjust his positioning. I was at the game and a man without replay is easily confused, I couldn’t tell if the ball skipped past Uggla or deflected off his glove.

The second one was an absolute boner on his part. Leading off the sixth with the Marlin lumber due and trailing 8-2 he ripped one off the wall in left. He tried to beat the play and was thrown out on a fine toss from Bay to Pedroia. It took near perfect execution to retire Ramirez but trailing by six and leading off the inning it’s a chance that should not have been taken.

- It’s little a thing but I liked a play by Nick Green in the fourth. When Cantu popped up behind the mound all four infielders converged as if it were a team meeting arriving at the same time. Green clearly took command as a shortstop should and made the routine grab.

- Nice work by Marlins’ reliever Burke Badenhop who went 4 1/3 innings and allowed manager Fredi Gonzalez to avoid blowing out the bullpen in the first game of the series.

- I love that David Ortiz had a good day offensively and I don’t feel the need to get all fired up about it.

Good: The bottom third of the Sox order (Ellsbury, Green and Kottaras) went 6 for 12 with four runs scored, three RBI and two stolen bases. When the Sox can get production like that down there they are going to score some runs.

Bad: A bit of an odd play ended the third for the Sox. Bay singled to left driving in a run. On the play the Marlin left fielder Chris Coghlan attempted (unwisely) to throw out J.D. Drew at the plate but his throw was atrocious, about 30 feet up the first base line on the fly. The throw was so bad it was easy for catcher John Baker to catch it and make a throw to Uggla to put the tag on Bay after a brief pursuit.

Ugly: Due to some work unpleasantness Freddy arrived late for the game. I missed the top of the first and the at bats by Pedroia and Drew in the bottom of the inning. I am feeling shame.
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Game 65

Opponent: Florida Marlins

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers: Brad Penny (5-2, 5.32) vs. Andrew Miller (2-2, 4.30)

Randomness: If you aren’t familiar with Miller he was the sixth pick of the 2006 draft by the Tigers and then part of the Dontrelle Willis/Miguel Cabrera trade. All you need to know about the 6’6” southpaw’s stuff is he was considered the best pitcher on his University of North Carolina staff despite the presence of Daniel Bard.

As a Major Leaguer he has not quite put it together yet. Control has been his bugaboo but he may be figuring things out. In his last six starts he has a 3.41 ERA with a 34:15 K:BB ratio. You might expect that a tall, hard-throwing lefty might be tough on lefty hitters but so far in his career he has not had a significant split and in 2009 he has actually had a reverse split allowing lefties an .813 OPS.

I want to change subjects a bit here to something that I forgot to write about last week that really bothered me. During one of the Yankee games the tidbit on the scoreboard about Robinson Cano said that he wore number 24 as a tribute to Jackie Robinson (whose #42 is retired except for Mariano Rivera).

This may be true but seems doubtful. When Cano came up in 2005 he wore #22 because teammate Tino Martinez had #24, fine. In 2006 he again wore #22 and then started the 2007 season in #22 before switching to #24 so that new teammate Roger Clemens could take the number

Cano may be genuine in his desire to honor Jackie Robinson but this feels a little self-promoting for a guy who generally has seemed to be a pretty good guy to me.

Game 64 Preview

Opponent: Florida Marlins

Park: Fenway Park

Pitchers: Tim Wakefield (8-3, 4.50) vs. Chris Volstad (4-6, 4.07)

Randomness: Interesting comments today in an interview with Clay Buchholz by Mike Girardi. Buchholz spoke openly about not getting an opportunity and I thought his comments on that subject struck a proper blend of frustration and understanding.

During the interview Buchholz addressed the issue of his maturity in 2008 with an interesting statement;

“Everybody goes out and has a drink at the bar after they pitch, it’s just holding that to a minimum.”

I found this to be an interesting comment. There is an implication in there that someone in the Sox’ organization had suggested to Clay that maybe he was living the high life a little too much a year ago.

This isn’t quite what you want to hear about with any young player but it is especially disconcerting with regards to Buchholz. If you are not aware one of the reasons the talented righty slid to the Red Sox in the 2005 draft was due to an incident in which he was involved in the theft of some computers from a middle school so maturity is something to be concerned about with Buchholz.

The reason maturity is important is because the great ones always look to improve their games. A big part of maturity is the willingness to listen to others and from this statement (and this is the ONLY information I have on this subject) Buchholz does not sound like he is doing that. This issue is particularly relevant with the arrival of the Florida Marlins and their superstar shortstop Hanley Ramirez to the Hub of the Universe.

Hanley Ramirez was at one time a hot prospect in the Boston Red Sox organization. Ramirez was awash in talent but seemed to never put it together in terms of on field performance in the minors. One reason for this was that his maturity wasn’t quite where it needed to be.

Early in his minor league career Ramirez was involved in two unpleasant events which resulted in lengthy suspensions. It certainly seems that Ramirez has learned from those events and the subsequent discipline he received as he has not been involved in any unpleasantness as a big leaguer while elevating his performance to an elite level.

Whether or not Clay Buchholz has the necessary maturity for a big leaguer is something I won’t claim to know. What is important though is if he has the willingness to take instruction. The great players understand that they don’t know it all and Hanley Ramirez has taken the necessary steps to go from undisciplined minor leaguer to superstar Major Leaguer. If he hasn't already done so, Clay Buchholz needs to take that same step.

Flags Fly Forever

This may be a bit of a change from the type of “take it easy” approach you’ve come to expect from Freddy but I’m starting to come around on this idea. Jack Wilson’s name keeps coming up in trade rumors and I’m getting more and more intrigued.

If you aren’t familiar with Wilson he is a slick fielding shortstop currently with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now 31 years old Wilson may not be as young as he once was but he still can’t pick it with the best of them ranking 2nd behind only Brendan Ryan of the Cardinals among MLB shortstops in FanGraphs highly regarded UZR system.

Offensively Wilson is not a particularly potent weapon. Save for his 2007 season his OPS+ has been between 74-77 every year since 2005 which would be worth about a .700 OPS with the Red Sox. Wilson does not have a lot of speed so he’s not likely to provide a benefit on the bases either.

So why do I think the Sox should strongly consider acquiring Wilson and perhaps give up a well regarded prospect for him?

Flags fly forever.

The Red Sox are an excellent baseball team with two glaring weaknesses. One weakness, DH, may be coming around and even if it isn’t acquiring a bat should be a relatively easy task as we approach the trade deadline. The other weakness, shortstop, is not so easily solved.

The longview approach, one I’ve endorsed up until now, is to wait for Jed Lowrie and get him back in there when the time comes. Nick Green’s performance has made this a palatable option as he has played well with an OPS of .771 and his erratic defense has settled down of late.

The reality is that Green is a time bomb. He is a wonderful story, maybe the best of the year for the Red Sox so far and it’s hard not to love the guy. The likelihood is that the remainder of his season will be closer to his career .675 OPS than his current rate making him equivalent to Wilson offensively.

But defensively, Wilson would be a massive upgrade. The Sox would be able to expect Gold Glove caliber defense without any offensive drop off. Wilson also has a club option for $8.4 million for 2010 meaning the Sox, if so inclined, could keep him for next year.

This of course begs the question of what you do with Jed Lowrie. I still believe in Lowrie but he’s coming back from a serious injury and may not hit and while his defense isn’t bad, if he’s not hitting, he’s not really helping the Sox. I would suggest that Lowrie could be employed as a useful utility man, giving days off to Pedroia, Lowell and Wilson and even Ortiz (put Lowrie at third, Lowell at DH against a tough lefty for example).

Going into next year if the Sox kept Wilson they would be able to maintain this system and with Lowell a year older Lowrie’s versatility would be beneficial. As for Julio Lugo the Sox would need to be creative. Personally I’d be content with Lugo acting as a backup as well, he has good speed and is hitting pretty well but his defense is just atrocious at this point. It seems that he might have more value than Mark Kotsay on the roster.

So what should the Sox give up? The Pirates don’t exist as a farm team and would probably want someone good. The guy that I look at as being worth exchanging is where this gets very sticky;
Michael Bowden.

Let me be clear, I like Michael Bowden. I think he can be a fine pitcher and his inclusion in a deal for a guy like Wilson is the kind of thing that could look absolutely humiliating in pretty short order.

The problem is that I don’t think Michael Bowden has any kind of future or value as a member of the Red Sox other than as a trade chip. Beckett, Lester and Buchholz are the 1-2-3 of the rotation. Daisuke is not going anywhere (deal with it) and with Masterson plus prospects like Tazawa, Hagadone and Doubront the Sox are flush with pitching. This is a gamble for the Sox but remember what I said in the title and earlier in the piece;

Flags fly forever.

The 2009 Boston Red Sox are a World Series contender, arguably the favorite. The 2009 Boston Red Sox also have an obvious hole and trading Michael Bowden for Jack Wilson would fill that hole and make the Sox a better team.

I don’t know that I fully endorse this strategy but the more I consider it the more I think it may be a worthwhile risk.

Weekend Recap

In the meeting between the last two World Champions the Sox took two out of three proving conclusively that they are the greatest most superfantastic wonderful team ever. The Sox finished this tough part of the schedule winning nine of twelve across four series against first place teams.

Let’s look back at a long weekend in the City of Brotherly Love;

Friday:

- Once again Jon Lester was dominant. He seems to have figured out how to avoid that big inning that plagued him in the early part of the season and is now cooking.

- In the 11th inning the Sox seemed to have lost the game when Greg Dobbs rocketed one down the right field line. The ball was ruled foul on the field and despite an argument from Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel no replay was viewed by the umps.

This seemed odd to me. At the establishment I was at I couldn’t see a clear replay but it looked like it was pretty darn close and a replay would have been appropriate.

- Terry Francona’s penchant for the longview was on display in this one. Obviously he wanted to stay away from Papelbon and it appeared that Saito was an emergency option only otherwise he’d have been in there to close it out in the ninth.

Instead the Sox did a little mix and match routine and while Ramirez allowed the bomb to Howard the ‘pen was very good. I thought Justin Masterson had an excellent fastball and Bard was using his breaking ball with a lot of effectiveness.

The only question I had was why pinch hit for Okajima in the 9th? He had only thrown 16 pitches and with Howard (who has big platoon splits) and Ibanez the 2nd and 3rd hitters in the ninth I thought Okie in the ninth would have been a good option. As I consider it I think Francona erred not in pinch hitting for Okie but he should have reversed his pitchers and used Ramirez in the 8th and Okie in the 9th.

- J.D. Drew homered in this one. I always feel like it’s worth pointing out that for a guy who is often considered “soft” he has owned the Phillies in their ballpark. Orsillo commented on it this weekend that over a decade later the Phils fans still give him grief for not signing with their club after he was drafted.

Well, as often happens, the facts don’t hold up to the myth. Despite his “soft” reputation Drew has taken the slings and arrows from the Phillie faithful and hammered their club to the tune of a 1.016 OPS in Philadelphia.

Saturday

- Daisuke Matsuzaka did not do much to quiet the cries for his ouster from the rotation in this one. While Matsuzaka’s results weren’t very good he was a true team player in this one.

Many pitchers would not have gone back to the mound after a rain delay of such length but Matsuzaka did so and gave the Sox three more innings after the break. In truth he actually pitched pretty well through his first 66 pitches and three innings before giving up a couple of homers in the fourth.

Matsuzaka is giving up a LOT of home runs this year and that is hurting him. If he can find a way to simply reduce that to league average (where he has been in the past) he’ll be all right.

- For all the talk about the three first inning errors the Sox really weren’t helped as much as it seemed. If you assume the inning plays out as it did without the errors included the Sox still would have scored four runs in the inning as they were battering Bastardo.

- Terry Francona made an aggressive move in the fifth inning. With Matsuzaka having struggled in the fourth and the potential to break the game open he pinch hit Ortiz for Daisuke.
I liked this move, it was a little glimpse of post-season Tito. The conventional move would have been to “save” Ortiz for a key moment later in the game but Francona read that a big hit in this spot would make a key moment later unlikely to occur. This was a good move by Tito.

- The key to the Sox winning this one in my opinion was Hideki Okajima’s performance. Okajima gave the Sox two innings of one run relief. As critical as the extra runs the Sox got were the ability to not have to dig deep into the bullpen was vital and Okajima’s effort was the reason that happened. did a job

Sunday

- This was an odd game for Josh Beckett reminiscent of Matsuzaka’s performance last Sunday against the Rangers. On one hand he went through a lengthy stretch of dominance with three straight 1-2-3 innings but he also got knocked around in the fifth.

I thought sending him out for the seventh was a good move. The Sox’ bullpen was pretty cooked after two long performances on Friday and Saturday and Beckett really had just had one bad inning. He just didn’t get the job done.

- Bard was an interesting choice in that spot but with Okajima and Delcarmen probably unavailable and Ramirez probably in that “emergency use only” place his use made some sense. Like Beckett, he didn’t get the job done. While getting lit up happens issuing a walk to the pitcher when he could have ended the inning was unacceptable.

- George Kottaras showed more power with a double to left-center. He seems to be finding his stroke and that stroke seems to be a power alley to power alley one.

Good: Mike Lowell flashed some leather with a sensational diving grab on a line drive off the bat of Howard.

Bad: The Sox have been the beneficiaries of some great starting pitching lately but on Saturday and Sunday they did not receive that. Beckett and Matsuzaka weren’t awful, but they weren’t very good either.

Ugly: The home run he hit was pretty cool but nothing was as funny as watching Beckett be ticked off about flying out in his second at bat.