Note that these were largely written in late February so some injuries/late trades may not be accounted for. Today’s club is the Texas Rangers
2011 Record – 96-66
My 2011 Prediction – 89-73
2012 Predicted Record – 98-64
Key Losses: C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz closer
Key Additions: Yu Darvish, Neftali Feliz starter
Big Strength: This is just a wonderfully deep baseball team. Picking just one strength seems so unfair but I think their development program needs to be lauded. It is not just that they have brought kids up from the minors so effectively but the way they have been able to convert pitchers like C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando into starters.
It is rare that the blockbuster “star player for a bunch of kids” trade works out as spectacularly well as it did when Texas dealt away Mark Teixeira. It would be easy to just say they got it right by picking the right players but they then developed in the minors and then in the Majors Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Neftali Feliz. It remains a source of amusement to me that the player most (including me) considered the centerpiece of the deal was a bust for Texas in the form of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Big Hole: There are no true “holes” on this team. If I had to pinpoint a concern I would say it would be health. Addiction issues aside Josh Hamilton has never stayed particularly healthy, Ian Kinsler tends to be a bit up and down and Adrian Beltre has been on the DL 2 of the last 3 years and will be 33 just after Opening Day.
Player I Love to Watch: I don’t think any Red Sox fan who witnessed 2010 would answer anything other than “Adrian Beltre” for this team. What a breath of fresh air he is.
General Thoughts: The big question for the Rangers this year is going to be how they rebound from what had to be a soul-crushing defeat in the World Series. Nelson Cruz has to have spent the off-season seeing that ball from Game Six sail past him.
Not too many teams have gotten to that point only to come up short and none of them have come back the following season with aplomb. The 1985 Cards blew Game Six and went 79-82 the next year. The 1986 Angels and 1986 Red Sox you know about and both teams went sub-.500 in 1987. Even the 2005 Yankees famously got off to an 11-19 start before righting the ship.
The more tangible concern for Texas is the rotation. They survived the loss of Cliff Lee a year ago in large part because of C.J. Wilson’s performance. Obviously they are banking on Darvish and I expect Derek Holland to step up as well but right now they do not look like a team with a true “Ace” to rely on. I suspect one will emerge but right now it is not clear who that will be.
Final Pre-Season Rankings:
Houston Astros 56-106
Seattle Mariners 65-97
Baltimore Orioles 66-96
New York Mets – 67-95
Chicago Cubs – 69-93
San Diego Padres – 69-93
Oakland Athletics 74-88
Pittsburgh Pirates – 74-88
Kansas City Royals – 74-88
Minnesota Twins – 75-88
Washington Nationals – 76-86
Chicago White Sox – 78-84
Cleveland Indians – 81-81
Miami Marlins – 82-80
Colorado Rockies – 82-80
Toronto Blue Jays – 82-80
Cincinnati Reds – 83-79
Los Angeles Dodgers – 84-78
Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78
Atlanta Braves – 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays – 88-74
St. Louis Cardinals – 90-72
San Francisco Giants – 90-72
Philadelphia Phillies – 91-71
Boston Red Sox – 92-70
Detroit Tigers – 92-70
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 93-69
Milwaukee Brewers – 93-69
New York Yankees – 95-67
Texas Rangers – 98-64