Freddy 30 to 1: Number 1 - Texas Rangers

For this year’s forecast I will look at each team on a daily basis.  I think you will find the format pretty self-explanatory.

Note that these were largely written in late February so some injuries/late trades may not be accounted for.  Today’s club is the Texas Rangers

2011 Record – 96-66

My 2011 Prediction – 89-73

2012 Predicted Record – 98-64

Key Losses:  C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz closer

Key Additions:  Yu Darvish, Neftali Feliz starter

Big Strength: This is just a wonderfully deep baseball team.  Picking just one strength seems so unfair but I think their development program needs to be lauded.  It is not just that they have brought kids up from the minors so effectively but the way they have been able to convert pitchers like C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando into starters.

It is rare that the blockbuster “star player for a bunch of kids” trade works out as spectacularly well as it did when Texas dealt away Mark Teixeira.  It would be easy to just say they got it right by picking the right players but they then developed in the minors and then in the Majors Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison and Neftali Feliz.  It remains a source of amusement to me that the player most (including me) considered the centerpiece of the deal was a bust for Texas in the form of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Big Hole:  There are no true “holes” on this team.  If I had to pinpoint a concern I would say it would be health.  Addiction issues aside Josh Hamilton has never stayed particularly healthy, Ian Kinsler tends to be a bit up and down and Adrian Beltre has been on the DL 2 of the last 3 years and will be 33 just after Opening Day.

Player I Love to Watch:  I don’t think any Red Sox fan who witnessed 2010 would answer anything other than “Adrian Beltre” for this team.  What a breath of fresh air he is.

General Thoughts:  The big question for the Rangers this year is going to be how they rebound from what had to be a soul-crushing defeat in the World Series.  Nelson Cruz has to have spent the off-season seeing that ball from Game Six sail past him.

Not too many teams have gotten to that point only to come up short and none of them have come back the following season with aplomb.  The 1985 Cards blew Game Six and went 79-82 the next year.  The 1986 Angels and 1986 Red Sox you know about and both teams went sub-.500 in 1987.  Even the 2005 Yankees famously got off to an 11-19 start before righting the ship. 

The more tangible concern for Texas is the rotation.  They survived the loss of Cliff Lee a year ago in large part because of C.J. Wilson’s performance.  Obviously they are banking on Darvish and I expect Derek Holland to step up as well but right now they do not look like a team with a true “Ace” to rely on.  I suspect one will emerge but right now it is not clear who that will be.

Final Pre-Season Rankings:

Houston Astros 56-106

Seattle Mariners 65-97

Baltimore Orioles 66-96

New York Mets – 67-95

Chicago Cubs – 69-93

San Diego Padres – 69-93

Oakland Athletics 74-88

Pittsburgh Pirates – 74-88

Kansas City Royals – 74-88

Minnesota Twins – 75-88

Washington Nationals – 76-86

Chicago White Sox – 78-84

Cleveland Indians – 81-81

Miami Marlins – 82-80

Colorado Rockies – 82-80

Toronto Blue Jays – 82-80

Cincinnati Reds – 83-79

Los Angeles Dodgers – 84-78

Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78

Atlanta Braves – 88-74

Tampa Bay Rays – 88-74

St. Louis Cardinals – 90-72

San Francisco Giants – 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies – 91-71

Boston Red Sox – 92-70

Detroit Tigers – 92-70

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 93-69

Milwaukee Brewers – 93-69

New York Yankees – 95-67

Texas Rangers – 98-64

Freddy 30 to 1: Number 2 - New York Yankees

Few players in the history of the game
have been as universally respected
as Mariano Rivera

For this year’s forecast I will look at each team on a daily basis.  I think you will find the format pretty self-explanatory.

Note that these were largely written in late February so some injuries/late trades may not be accounted for. 

Today’s club is the New York Yankees

2011 Record – 97-65

My 2011 Prediction – 91-71

2012 Predicted Record – 95-67

Key Losses:  Jesus Montero, Hip Hip Jorge Posada, Hector Noesi, Bartolo Colon

Key Additions:  Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda

Big Strength: This is a team with a truly fantastic bullpen.  Mariano Rivera is still ridiculous and while David Robertson is not going to post a 1.08 ERA again he should be very good.  Rafael Soriano had a strong second half and should be solid also.

Big Hole:  I remain unimpressed with Joe Girardi as manager.  I have said in the past that I think he is the type of manager who makes a bad situation worse and a good situation better.  I think his handling of the Jorge Posada situation last year was poor and his tactical decision making often confounds me.  For a guy with a great amount of talent at his disposal I feel like he sometimes feels the need to prove how smart he is.  I wonder if he is the best guy to help guy youngster Pineda through the minefields of being traded and Hiroki Kuroda has been pretty open in the past about his discomfort at leaving the West Coast and it will be interesting to see how Girardi manages that process.

Player I Love to Watch:  The dignity, class and unquestioned brilliance of Mariano Rivera are written of so often that it becomes trite.  What does not get discussed enough is his great mechanics on the mound, he simply does nothing wrong.

General Thoughts:  It feels like the same predictions are written for the Yankees for about a decade now;

- if Mariano can do it for one more year

- if they can keep age at bay

- if the new acquisition can adapt to the big city

They are what they are, a very good baseball team that does have some concerns.  I think Mark Teixeira is a critical player for this club because he strikes me as the one guy who could meaningfully improve upon his 2011 season.  I think some decline is likely from guys like Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner but if Tex can bounce back that should be the boost the offense needs.

So Far:

Houston Astros 56-106

Seattle Mariners 65-97

Baltimore Orioles 66-96

New York Mets – 67-95

Chicago Cubs – 69-93

San Diego Padres – 69-93

Oakland Athletics 74-88

Pittsburgh Pirates – 74-88

Kansas City Royals – 74-88

Minnesota Twins – 75-88

Washington Nationals – 76-86

Chicago White Sox – 78-84

Cleveland Indians – 81-81

Miami Marlins – 82-80

Colorado Rockies – 82-80

Toronto Blue Jays – 82-80

Cincinnati Reds – 83-79

Los Angeles Dodgers – 84-78

Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78

Atlanta Braves – 88-74

Tampa Bay Rays – 88-74

St. Louis Cardinals – 90-72

San Francisco Giants – 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies – 91-71

Boston Red Sox – 92-70

Detroit Tigers – 92-70

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 93-69

Milwaukee Brewers – 93-69

New York Yankees – 95-67

State of the Staff

Jon Lester will deliver the first pitch
of the Boston Red Sox 2012 season.

The Sox pitching staff to start the season seems to be Bobby Valentine’s focus this week.  The big news was his announcement that Jon Lester would start the season opener in Detroit on April 5.

According to the Boston Globe at the meeting he had with Valentine in January Josh Beckett said that Lester was the one deserving of that honor.  Beckett has been front and center in the fried chicken and beer backlash but to me this is a guy being a good teammate.  Beckett is no doubt a proud man with an impressive track record yet he opted to cede a plum assignment to Lester.

Opening Day may be just one of 162 but to these guys it no doubt matters who is given this honor.  Beckett deserved criticism for his involvement in some of what happened last year, but he deserves praise for this.

With that in mind, let’s look at how the staff is shaping up with the assumption that the Sox will roll out twelve pitchers.

No Doubt Starters – Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard

No Doubt Relievers – Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon

No Doubt Something – Alfredo Aceves

So right there we have seven hurlers.  The Sox are obviously taking Aceves to the motor city, it is just a question of what role he will fill.  My guess is reliever.

Out Of Options – Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden, Andrew Miller

Now things are taking shape.  These three pitchers cannot be sent to the minors without passing through waivers (and they wouldn’t clear).  Bowden has looked very sharp this Spring and letting him go would be a mistake.  You know how much I like Doubront and he has been solid so far but Andrew Miller has enough of a track record that I think letting him go makes sense.

Peter Abraham wrote this morning “(s)o guys like Andrew Miller, Matt Albers, Felix Doubront and Michael Bowden are so wonderful that it would be preferable to give them a spot they may not deserve rather than expose them to waivers?

The idea is to win games, not stockpile marginal talent.”

While I agree with his assessment I don’t think keeping Bowden and Doubront keeps the Sox from promoting anyone clearly better.  Miller probably is appreciably worse than someone else they could keep (and PeteAbe did note that all three have shown flashes this spring).

Likely to Make It Reliever – Matt Albers

I suspect Albers is pretty close to a no doubter.  He has only pitched one “official” inning this Spring and I think the fact that we are not hearing much suggests that whatever he is showing in minor league games and side sessions is neither brilliant nor catastrophic.

The Great Unknown – Vicente Padilla

Disabled List – Rich Hill, Franklin Morales, Aaron Cook, Ross Ohlendorf

I think both lefties could be important this year (particularly Morales) but neither will be ready to start the season.  Cook and Ohlendorf probably need just a bit more time.  I would not be shocked if either guy were in Boston by Patriots Day.

Going to the Minors – Drake Britton, Chris Carpenter, Clayton Mortensen, Stolmy Pimentel, Junichi Tazawa

Final Thoughts

If you have been following along you’ll notice that I have listed just eleven pitchers for the Opening Day roster;

Starters – Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard

Relievers – Bailey, Melancon, Aceves, Doubront, Bowden, Miller, Albers

In theory the Sox need a fifth starter somewhere in here and they don’t truly have a LOOGY though Miller and Doubront can fill both roles in theory.  They also have a couple guys sort of auditioning for the LOOGY role in camp in Doug Mathis and Justin Thomas.  I do not see either player likely to stick.

The schedule is such that if the Sox want to ride out the twelfth pitcher they can probably do it.  In April they play;

Detroit-OFF-Detroit-Detroit-Toronto-Toronto-Toronto-OFF-Tampa-Tampa-Tampa-Tampa-Texas-Texas-Texas-OFF-New York-New York-New York-Minnesota-Minnesota-Minnesota-Chicago-Chicago-Chicago-Oakland

Long story short they really only need a fifth starter once before the meat of the schedule starts on April 20^th with the first Yankee game (the 100^th anniversary game too).  The Sox conceivably could just fill that one fifth start with someone from the Miller/Doubront/Aceves group for a spot start (Texas on April 17^th) and then wouldn’t need someone until April 24^th in Minnesota.  By that point someone from Cook and Ohlendorf would be ready.

That’s a lot of machinations going on.  My guess is that the Sox will be much simpler about this slotting Doubront in as the fifth starter right out of the gate with Padilla being the twelfth man.

That leaves us with;

Starters – Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, Doubront

Relievers – Bailey, Melancon, Aceves, Padilla, Bowden, Miller, Albers

That right there is my guess as the Opening Day pitching staff (health permitting).  I think Padilla and Albers are two guys who have some heat on them as the Sox have Ohlendorf, Cook and Morales all likely to be available by May 1^st and the Sox will be making moves.  This is particularly true of Cook who has a May 1^st opt-out clause in his contract if he is in the minors.

Freddy 30 to 1: Number 3 - Milwaukee Brewers

For this year’s forecast I will look at each team on a daily basis.  I think you will find the format pretty self-explanatory.

Note that these were largely written in late February so some injuries/late trades may not be accounted for.  Today’s club is the Milwaukee Brewers

2011 Record – 96-66

My 2011 Prediction – 89-73

2012 Predicted Record – 93-69

Key Losses:  Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee, LaTroy Hawkins, Takashi Saito

Key Additions:  Aramis Ramirez, Jose Veras

Big Strength: Even with the loss of Fielder this is still a very good offensive team.  Ryan Braun is Ryan Braun and players like Corey Hart, Nyjer Morgan and Rickie Weeks help create a deep offensive team.  While Aramis Ramirez is not Prince Fielder he is a good bat who should fit nicely.

Big Hole:  Neither LaTroy Hawkins nor Takashi Saito is a superstar but both were very very good a year ago for Ron Roenicke.  Filling those holes with Jose Veras and a full season of Francisco Rodriguez is not going to be an easy task

Player I Love to Watch:  I don’t care what he was hopped up on last year, Ryan Braun plays the game well and he plays it hard.

General Thoughts:  I feel like we make look back at the Ryan Braun situation as a turning point in the general discussion of steroids and performance enhancing drugs.  While Braun has surely been criticized and there were articles calling for him to be stripped of his MVP award it seemed that more writers and fans were willing to consider Braun’s arguments and pleas of innocence.

I believe this is a positive and something that suggests that the discussion is moving forward with knowledge being the goal rather than a witch hunt designed to play “gotcha!”

I feel like on an annual basis I am reminded of what Bill James wrote about the 1985 Cardinals.  After the loss of star closer Bruce Sutter he said something to the effect of “fans and media need to focus not on what is gone, but on what is still here.”

In the case of the Brewers the Prince Fielder loss hurts no doubt.  However, the pitching staff anchored by Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo and Zach Greinke remains top notch and the offense is still very deep as noted earlier.

This is the most complete team in the National League in my opinion.

So Far:

Houston Astros 56-106

Seattle Mariners 65-97

Baltimore Orioles 66-96

New York Mets – 67-95

Chicago Cubs – 69-93

San Diego Padres – 69-93

Oakland Athletics 74-88

Pittsburgh Pirates – 74-88

Kansas City Royals – 74-88

Minnesota Twins – 75-88

Washington Nationals – 76-86

Chicago White Sox – 78-84

Cleveland Indians – 81-81

Miami Marlins – 82-80

Colorado Rockies – 82-80

Toronto Blue Jays – 82-80

Cincinnati Reds – 83-79

Los Angeles Dodgers – 84-78

Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78

Atlanta Braves – 88-74

Tampa Bay Rays – 88-74

St. Louis Cardinals – 90-72

San Francisco Giants – 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies – 91-71

Boston Red Sox – 92-70

Detroit Tigers – 92-70

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 93-69

Milwaukee Brewers – 93-69

Freddy 30 to 1: Number 4 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

For this year’s forecast I will look at each team on a daily basis.  I think you will find the format pretty self-explanatory.

Note that these were largely written in late February so some injuries/late trades may not be accounted for. 

Today’s club is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2011 Record – 86-76

My 2011 Prediction – 76-86

2012 Predicted Record – 93-69

Key Losses:  Jeff Mathis, Tyler Chatwood

Key Additions:  Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson, Chris Ianetta, LaTroy Hawkins

Big Strength:  The addition of Pujols and Wilson drew the headlines but even before those moves this was a team with a potent starting rotation.  They don’t seem to get the headlines that San Francisco and Philadelphia get but Jered Weaver and Dan Haren take a backseat to no one.  Add Ervin Santana to the mix and things get impressive quickly.  Wilson is just icing on an already impressive cake.

Big Hole:  In a departure for Mike Scioscia managed teams the bullpen looks a bit uncertain to me.  There is some upside but Jordan Walden had a rough year in 2011 locking games down and after him there is no one that I look at out there and say “yup, that’s my guy!”

Player I Love to Watch:  As disappointed as I was as a Red Sox fan to see a competitor get such a star, my immediate thought was that it would be fun to see Albert Pujols on a semi-regular basis.

General Thoughts:  I liked the Albert Pujols signing and fully expect him to be the player he was in St. Louis.  However, I think we have to expect some adjustment period.  I used Baseball-Reference to find recent players who had posted at least 30 WAR in their first eight years while playing for just one team (Pujols has 11 years and 89 WAR but finding comps for Pujols is not easy).  I then looked at those players who switched teams to see how they adapted and it seemed there was always some adjustment period;

Lance Berkman – Houston to New York (A)

Career OPS at time of move – 145

OPS first year away – 90

Nomar Garciaparra – Boston to Chicago (N)

Career OPS at time of move – 133

OPS first year away – 108

Vladimir Guerrero – Montreal to Anaheim

Career OPS at time of move – 148

OPS first year away - 157

Andruw Jones – Atlanta to Los Angeles (N)

Career OPS at time of move – 113

OPS first year away – 35

Obviously this is limited by both number and factors other than the move (age, injury, etc…) but the fact is that I think it is something to at least be considered.

The pitching makes this team formidable and while the offense is not sexy it is pretty solid.  My concern with this team is that while I think they can get to 93 wins that there is more downside than upside.  I can’t really put my finger on it but there is something “off” about this team that leaves me uncertain about their likelihood of success.

Put another way, from an analytical standpoint I feel like the Angels are superior to the Tigers in every way but I am more confident that the Tigers will reach their potential.  I wonder if I’m projecting after seeing last year’s “hot stove winners” the Red Sox fall apart so spectacularly.

So Far:

Houston Astros 56-106

Seattle Mariners 65-97

Baltimore Orioles 66-96

New York Mets – 67-95

Chicago Cubs – 69-93

San Diego Padres – 69-93

Oakland Athletics 74-88

Pittsburgh Pirates – 74-88

Kansas City Royals – 74-88

Minnesota Twins – 75-88

Washington Nationals – 76-86

Chicago White Sox – 78-84

Cleveland Indians – 81-81

Miami Marlins – 82-80

Colorado Rockies – 82-80

Toronto Blue Jays – 82-80

Cincinnati Reds – 83-79

Los Angeles Dodgers – 84-78

Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78

Atlanta Braves – 88-74

Tampa Bay Rays – 88-74

St. Louis Cardinals – 90-72

San Francisco Giants – 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies – 91-71

Boston Red Sox – 92-70

Detroit Tigers – 92-70

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 93-69

Freddy 30 to 1: Number 5 - Detroit Tigers

For this year’s forecast I will look at each team on a daily basis.  I think you will find the format pretty self-explanatory.

Note that these were largely written in late February so some injuries/late trades may not be accounted for. 

Today’s club is the Detroit Tigers

2011 Record – 95-67

My 2011 Prediction – 83-79

2012 Predicted Record – 92-70

Key Losses:  Victor Martinez, Brad Penny

Key Additions:  Prince Fielder, Octavio Dotel, David Pauley

Big Strength: In 2011 Fielder had an OPS+ of 164, Miguel Cabrera was at 181, now the two will join forces.  There has been much discussion about how fearsome this combination is and how it compares to pairings like Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.

It doesn’t.

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz never had a season where both reached such lofty heights.

In fact, in the three division era only three teams have ever had two players post an OPS+ of 164 or higher while qualifying for the batting title;

1997 Seattle Mariners: Ken Griffey Jr. and Edgar Martinez

2004 St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds

2011 Milwaukee Brewers: Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun

This combination in the middle of the order has the potential to be historically potent.  If you raise the threshold to both players having an OPS+ of 170 then the 1989 San Francisco Giants (Will Clark and Kevin Mitchell) are the only team since integration to achieve this.

Whatever you are hearing about how good this combination is could incredibly be understating it.

(all stats courtesy Baseball Reference)

Big Hole:  The flip side of all this firepower is that the Tigers have the potential to be spectacularly bad defensively.  Jim Leyland entered camp saying that Brandon Inge might compete for the second base job and if that’s the case….well holy crap on a cracker a Prince Fielder-Brandon Inge-Miguel Cabrera-Jhonny Peralta infield could be truly amusing.  Add in Delmon Young in the outfield and a lot of balls are going to get through.

Player I Love to Watch:  Justin Verlander’s genius on the mound is a pleasure to witness.

General Thoughts:  I feel like I am more optimistic about the Tigers than most.  My sense is that while the Tigers are well thought of they are being forecasted as a high 80s team at best.  Frankly I think the Tigers are going to coast to the division title barring substantial injuries.

I really like the Tiger pitching staff more than the numbers might suggest I should.  Justin Verlander is of course ridiculously good but I think Max Scherzer is a quality pitcher who had a down year and I expect Leyland to work his magic with promising youngster Jacob Turner this year as he has with Rick Porcello and Verlander in past years.

So Far:

Houston Astros 56-106

Seattle Mariners 65-97

Baltimore Orioles 66-96

New York Mets – 67-95

Chicago Cubs – 69-93

San Diego Padres – 69-93

Oakland Athletics 74-88

Pittsburgh Pirates – 74-88

Kansas City Royals – 74-88

Minnesota Twins – 75-88

Washington Nationals – 76-86

Chicago White Sox – 78-84

Cleveland Indians – 81-81

Miami Marlins – 82-80

Colorado Rockies – 82-80

Toronto Blue Jays – 82-80

Cincinnati Reds – 83-79

Los Angeles Dodgers – 84-78

Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78

Atlanta Braves – 88-74

Tampa Bay Rays – 88-74

St. Louis Cardinals – 90-72

San Francisco Giants – 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies – 91-71

Boston Red Sox – 92-70

Detroit Tigers – 92-70

Freddy 30 to 1: Number 6 - Boston Red Sox

For this year’s forecast I will look at each team on a daily basis.  I think you will find the format pretty self-explanatory.

Note that these were largely written in late February so some injuries/late trades may not be accounted for.

Today’s club is the Boston Red Sox

2011 Record – 90-72

My 2011 Prediction – 95-67

2012 Predicted Record – 92-70

Key Losses:  Jonathan Papelbon, Marco Scutaro, John Lackey, Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, Daniel Bard reliever, Jed Lowrie

Key Additions:  Andrew Bailey, Ryan Sweeney, Daniel Bard starter, Nick Punto, Kelly Shoppach, Cody Ross, Mark Melancon

Big Strength: The core talent on this club takes a backseat to no team in baseball.  The Sox were one of just three teams with four players having a WAR of 5.0 or better with Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia reaching that mark (Texas and Philadelphia were the others).  Add in Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz and the Sox can justifiably feel like their best can match up with the best of any other team in the game.

Big Hole:  The bullpen looks very weak to me.  I love Bailey and I think Melancon is a nice pickup.  After those two though is an awful lot of question marks.  Franklin Morales looks like a guy who might be a real impact arm out there potentially able to do what Hideki Okajima did for several years and handle both lefties and righties.  In Morales’ case he would do it with power rather than deception and of course he is far from a sure thing.

Player I Love to Watch:  Dustin Pedroia plays the game the way I hope I would play if I were that talented.  Nothing is ever less than 100%.

General Thoughts:  It seems that the questions about the Sox spending have been refuted fairly well in a few places especially Alex Speier's piece in late January.  Still, given some of the criticisms that have been levied I think it should be noted that the Sox will have the second highest payroll in baseball in 2012 and to criticize them for an unwillingness to spend seems a bit silly in light of that.

So how much do I want to write?  Obviously I have covered quite a bit on a day to day basis this off-season and Spring but there is a lot happening.  I think what needs to be remembered in light of last year’s collapse is that the Sox won 90 games last year and will return the most prolific offense in the game in nearly its entirety.  There is no reason the offense should be anything less than 3^rd in the AL and that is probably a worst-case scenario.

But what of the pitching?  Well, the Sox will return Jon Lester and Josh Beckett.  The two combined for 61 starts and a 3.19 ERA in 2011 and should be able to do that again.

Clay Buchholz should be able to maintain his 3.48 ERA from a year ago and hopefully will be healthier and make more than 14 starts.  He is not the most durable fellow but let’s give him 25 starts.

So, what about the other two spots?  Well, let’s assume that Daniel Bard is a bust as a starter with an ERA of 4.75 and the Sox get poor performances from the rest of their rotation.  Bard and others put up a 5.25 ERA in their 60 or so starts.

Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield and John Lackey combined to make 63 starts a year ago, basically taking up two rotation spots.  These three hurlers combined for a 5.85 ERA.  The hypothetical example I just gave, in the same number of innings as Miller/Wakefield/Lackey, would surrender about 25-30 fewer runs (when accounting for Wake’s high number of unearned runs) and about 2 ½ to 3 more wins over the course of the season.

In other words, if the Sox change NOTHING from last year other than improving from “ridiculous” to “embarrassing” at the back of their rotation they should win 3 more games.

That’s an oversimplification of course but all the talk about everything that went on last year comes down to that very simple issue.  I think pitchers like Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa are likely to help this club more than the Sox got from Miller and Kyle Weiland (5 starts, 8.72 ERA) a year ago.

One of the side benefits of having these rotation spots filled by the players the Sox are filling them with is there is no reason to stick with poor performances.  Last year the Sox were “forced” to stick with Lackey because right or wrong, when you pay a guy $18 million you are going to keep rolling him out there.  Conversely, if Aaron Cook sucks, the Sox won’t feel any compulsion to yank him from the rotation.  That alone should generate some improvement on last year’s mess.

So Far:

Houston Astros 56-106

Seattle Mariners 65-97

Baltimore Orioles 66-96

New York Mets – 67-95

Chicago Cubs – 69-93

San Diego Padres – 69-93

Oakland Athletics 74-88

Pittsburgh Pirates – 74-88

Kansas City Royals – 74-88

Minnesota Twins – 75-88

Washington Nationals – 76-86

Chicago White Sox – 78-84

Cleveland Indians – 81-81

Miami Marlins – 82-80

Colorado Rockies – 82-80

Toronto Blue Jays – 82-80

Cincinnati Reds – 83-79

Los Angeles Dodgers – 84-78

Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78

Atlanta Braves – 88-74

Tampa Bay Rays – 88-74

St. Louis Cardinals – 90-72

San Francisco Giants – 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies – 91-71

Boston Red Sox – 92-70

Spring Update

The Sox dropped a slugfest to St. Louis on Thursday 9-6.  The big news in this one was the horrible performance from Daniel Bard.  While hiccups happen during the season I think a guy trying to establish a routine dealing with hiccups would be expected to struggle.

Bard was up for the fifth inning as a reliever (Alfredo Aceves started, more on him in a moment) but Bobby Valentine instead went to lefty Justin Thomas to face some lefties (thanks Extra Bases).  Bard then entered the game in the sixth and after retiring the first man he faced he was hit with about a 15 minute rain delay.

The wheels came off immediately and he allowed three runs in that inning before working a 1-2-3 7th.  In the 8th it fell apart again and a two out bases clearing triple sealed Bard's terrible day.

Just as his previous outings should not have had the engravers updating the 2012 Cy Young Award neither should today have the Sox clearing space at Pawtucket for the righty.  Bard will need to deal with delays as today's rain delay was no longer than a lengthy rally with a couple of pitching changes.

Some other notes;

Alfredo Aceves - I thought Aceves was a bit off his game.  While his performance was solid numerically there were some sharply hit balls and other than his curve he seemed to struggle locating his pitches.

Ryan Lavarnway - Lavarnway was behind the plate for Aceves and frequently had to call time.  There were at least three situations where the home plate umpire indicated that Lavarnway had called time, seemingly unable to get on the same page with Aceves.  Aceves can be a fussy sort so this is not a huge surprise but it is the first time I have noted Lavarnway have any sort of issue defensively.

Justin Thomas - I was right behind home plate today and Thomas does not appear to be a true LOOGY.  He is pretty over the top and lefties did not look especially uncomfortable against him.

Mike Aviles - Aviles had another sharply hit ball today though it went for an out.  He made a defensive blunder on a pick off at second base backing away from a throw from Bard which sailed right over the bag.  Bard was charged with the error but Aviles was the player at fault on the play as he was clearly "hearing footsteps" as the runner came back to the bag.

Darnell McDonald - McDonald slammed another home run today and continues to be crushing the ball.

Pedro Ciriaco - By my count the Sox have a roster spot available to start the season and Ciriaco is making himself a guy looking to seize that spot.  For a guy with a pedestrian offensive history he has swung a hot bat but he really shows his stuff defensively.  On a couple of balls up the middle he showed exceptional range and he has consistently displayed a strong arm.

Weird Play - There was a strange play when Cardinal Matt Carpenter and Nick Punto collided on a double to the gap as Carpenter rounded second.  Both men hit the deck and then Carpenter got up and circled the bases where he was eventually thrown out at home plate. The umpire properly ruled him safe based on the interference.

This was reminiscent of the play in the 2003 ALDS when Miguel Tejada stopped running between third and home.  The umpire has the discretion to rule if the runner would have made it and by getting up and continuing on Carpenter (and Cardinal third base coach Jose Oquendo) made it clear that but for the collision Carpenter would have been safe.

Scouts - Scouts are the best.  I had a delightful conversation with a scout during the game that lasted several innings.  He told a wonderful story about taking Pedro Ciriaco and a few friends to lunch when they were in the low minors.  He said Ciriaco to this day thanks him for the meal at a time when Ciriaco and his friends were making very little money.