Fragile Freddy's

A Boston Red Sox & General Baseball Blog. Consider yourself forewarned, meanspiritedness is not allowed at Fragile Freddy's!

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Random Thoughts

Some random off-day thoughts;

- Julian Tavarez must replace Eric Gagne on the roster. With three games in three days in the high octane environment of Colorado the likelihood of needing a long reliever is pretty good and Tavarez is a better fit for that role than Gagne obviously but also a better fit than Lester.

- It seems that a lot of places are suggesting that Tim Wakefield can’t pitch Game Four in Colorado because of the atmosphere. This is one of those things that is being accepted as fact despite no evidence to prove/disprove it. In my opinion Tim Wakefield is clearly the fourth best starter on the Red Sox and therefore should be the one who only makes one start. If he cannot be trusted in Colorado because of the atmospheric conditions then he should be removed from the roster and Jon Lester should make the start in Colorado.

- If Wake isn’t going to be used he doesn’t really serve a purpose on the roster. I would replace him with Bryan Corey who could help in blowout situations and wouldn’t feel like a white flag in a 13-14 inning game.

- Another key issue is the 1B/3B conundrum. With three star players and two slots for them the question is “who sits?” I think against Francis (presumably in Game Five) and Morales (Game Three) you sit Ortiz. As crazy as sitting David Ortiz for two World Series games is Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell are both better, or at least comparable, hitters against lefties than David Ortiz and obviously the defensive difference is stark. This would then allow Ortiz to act as a tremendous threat on the bench to hit for a guy like Ellsbury, Crisp or Lugo.

- Along those same lines, the two key lefty relievers for Colorado, Brian Fuentes and Jeremy Affeldt, are both guys without particularly large platoon differences. Ortiz hits lefties well so he could pinch hit against either of those guys and be a big threat.

- Right Field is also an area of concern against lefties. I’m torn on this one. The logic says that having Kielty against the lefties is good but the Coors Field outfield is so vast that I’m willing to take the loss of offense to have Drew’s defense out there. As it is the centerfielder is going to get a work out covering for Manny in left-center.

- Center Field – Jacoby Ellsbury. If the Sox go with Kielty, I think they have to strongly consider Coco for the defensive improvement. If you haven’t guessed, I’m quite concerned about the Red Sox outfield defense in Colorado. The Rockies are similar to the Indians in that they have a couple of real speed guys but a few other guys (Holliday, Tulowitzki) who while they aren’t speedsters run well enough to cause some problems if balls get into the gap.

- Demarlo Hale needs to be conscious of the positioning of the Rockie outfielders. Outfielders in Colorado typically play a little deeper to allow for easier cutting off of balls in gaps and this is going to mean that there may be opportunities to run.

5 Comments:

  • At 3:27 PM, Anonymous troy said…

    Splits vs. lefties, which it sounds like you know:

    Ortiz: .308 .390 .462 .852
    Lowell: .323 .383 .466 .849
    Youk: .290 .408 .407 .815

    Now go look at how Ortiz is hitting in the playoffs. Just can't see benching him.

     
  • At 4:33 PM, Blogger Fragile Freddy said…

    troy - It seems hard to imagine benching Ortiz but the way Youk and Lowell are hitting I don't want to bench them either. Ortiz is a better hitter against lefties but I'm thinking the difference is small enough that the defensive improvement is worthwhile. Particularly against Morales and Francis who are tough on lefties.

     
  • At 5:38 PM, Anonymous troy said…

    I agree the dropoff from Youk to Ortiz at first is significant. But I just can't bring myself to take Ortiz out. This calls for one of those game simulators, so we can play one lineup against the other 1,000 times.

     
  • At 8:14 PM, Blogger Fragile Freddy said…

    OK, I'm not that sophisticated but I ran the Diamond Mind Baseball Simulator 27 times with Youk 1B/Lowell 3B and 27 times with Ortiz 1B/Lowell 3B.

    With the Youk/Lowell configuration the Sox scored 126 runs.

    With the Ortiz/Lowell configuration the Sox scored 128 runs.

     
  • At 11:34 PM, Anonymous manny mota said…

    Ortiz and Lowell it is...those two runs are going to make the difference!

    All kidding aside Freddy, you've simply being doing yeoman work here and all of us loyal readers are grateful for your efforts. Special thanks for catching us up on those Rockies, one of the most anonymous WS participants of all time.

     

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