Kyle Lohse - Worth a Look

Joe Sheehan wrote an interesting piece today about free agents still available. In the piece he said the following; “Remember, it’s rare that free agents are bad players; they’re just too often bad players for the price. As we near March, the price drops, and it becomes time to reconsider players who never looked like viable options in November.”

With that in mind the all-seeing eye of Fragile Freddy turns to the Red Sox fifth starter. The options seem to be Clay Buchholz and Julian Tavarez but there may be someone out there in free agent land who makes some sense.

The pitcher in question is Kyle Lohse (did the title give it away?). There is a temptation to point out that Lohse is pretty crummy but that’s a bit of a simplification. Before we get too far on Lohse, let’s look at the Red Sox’ rotation;

Beckett
Matsuzaka
Lester
Wakefield
Tavarez/Buchholz

Beckett has a history of missing at least a couple starts each year and said that the couple of starts he missed last year helped him come October. Matsuzaka faded in September last year and the Sox may give him a couple starts off somewhere along the line. Lester and Buchholz are young pitchers and it’s a lot to ask 33 starts from them while Wakefield is a 41 year old who has had some injury problems the last couple of years.

What this all means is that the Sox are going to need to dig into their 6th, 7th and 8th starters at some point in 2008. Kyle Lohse may not be a star, but he’s a shade below average and that has value. One of the easiest mistakes to make in evaluation is the worth of slightly below average players.

Say you have two spots in the rotation that combine for a 4.50 ERA and 400 innings. That’s pretty much league average right there. One spot goes to a guy who has a 3.50 ERA in 200 innings, the other spot is NOT going to go to one guy who pitches 200 innings with a 5.50 ERA.

The reason for this is simple, a guy with a 5.50 ERA is not going to get 200 innings. First, he won’t pitch well enough to stay in games long enough to reach that mark and second a contending team will likely make a change and go to a different hurler to pitch those 200 innings. By having someone pitch 100 innings with a 4.75 ERA a team can gain an advantage.

This is where Lohse comes in handy. In his career he has a 4.82 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an acceptable 2:1 K:BB ratio. He has spent most of his career in the American League and while the last year and a half have been in the NL he has pitched in Cincinnati and Philadelphia which are both exceptional hitters’ parks. He can give the Sox 100 innings of performance between “average” and “replacement level.”

Long story short, Kyle Lohse is a decent bet to be better than David Pauley or Devern Hansack. Lohse could start the season in the rotation with Tavarez in the bullpen and Buchholz in the minors. The Sox are going to keep Buchholz’ innings down at 160-180 maximum so having him spend six to eight weeks in Pawtucket would allow the Red Sox to control his early season innings better.

By mid-May it is a near certainty that someone in the rotation will be in need of missing a couple of starts that would allow for Buchholz’ promotion. Using the AL average of 135 starts from the top five starters the Red Sox should not have any problem finding 22-23 starts and 150-160 innings of work for Clay Buchholz from May 15 through the end of September.

Adding Kyle Lohse will provide the Red Sox with some additional depth. He isn’t a great pitcher but he is better than replacement level and that’s a guy who has some value. If he’s willing to sign a one year deal with some incentives it could turn out to be a useful signing.