2008 Preview - The Hitters
Welcome to Part One of our Red Sox Preview. With just six days until first pitch (holy crap, six days!!!!). What will follow is a capsule look at 18 players likely to have a role with the 2008 Red Sox. For each player I will give you their number of Plate Appearances and OPS for 2007 and my forecast for 2008.
1B
Kevin Youkilis – .843/625 - .828/550
Sean Casey - .746/496 - .749/250
Chris Carter – N/A - .800/75
The big item here is that I forecast about a 75 Plate Appearance drop for Youkilis. This is about 15 fewer games and would put him at 130 games. I believe the Sox will look to limit his time a bit and keep him fresh for the second half. Obviously the bulk of time that he misses would go to Casey though I expect Carter to get some PT as well.
2B
Dustin Pedroia - .822/581 - .793/650
Alex Cora - .684/.232 - .637/175
Pedroia should drop off a bit and Cora won’t have the benefit of the super hot April he had in 2007 to bump the numbers up. Pedroia should be more of a regular and play closer to 150 games and be pinch hit for less than he was in 2007.
3B
Mike Lowell - .879/653 - .825/600
Lowell had a spectacular 2007 season. He’ll fall off from that but should still be a productive player. Like Youkilis I expect the Sox to try to give him a little more rest from time to time in 2008 to offset some of his occasional second half doldrums.
SS
Julio Lugo - .643/630 - .720/625
Jed Lowrie – N/A - .775/80
One area where the Sox should see some improvement is in the performance of Julio Lugo. After a bleak start to his Red Sox career Lugo basically returned to his career levels and I expect him to do the same in 2008 without the grim start.
LF
Manny Ramirez - .881/569 - .956/525
Brandon Moss - .819/29 - .727/75
Another guy who should rebound in 2008 is Manny Ramirez. What I fear with Manny is how much he will be in there. I expect a better, but less prolific season due to injury. If the Sox can get some bounceback from Manny AND combine that with improved health that could be enormous.
CF
Jacoby Ellsbury - .903/127 - .751/475
Coco Crisp - .712/591 - .723/175
I’m not quite sure how to balance these guys out. Crisp could get 10 at bats with the Sox and be shipped out in which case Bobby Kielty probably gets a bunch more plate appearances with Brandon Moss also possibly playing a lot more. Obviously I’m not overly optimistic for Ellsbury’s performance though a .751 OPS would be more than acceptable particularly when you add in what would likely be 30+ stolen bases and solid defense.
RF
J.D. Drew - .796/552 - .844/475
Bobby Kielty - .622/61 - .717/125
This could be a very important year for J.D. Drew. If he continues what is now a three year skid that would be a real problem. If he can return to something resembling his former self, even the 2006 version, the Sox will benefit largely.
C
Jason Varitek – .788/518 - .782/475
Kevin Cash - .390/33 - .449/175
Dusty Brown – N/A - .616/50
I’m giving Varitek a little more age related time off. Kevin Cash is going to need to be tremendous defensively to make up for his anemic bat. As always and as with just about every team in baseball, an injury to the starting catcher has the potential to be devastating.
DH
David Ortiz – 1.066/667 - 1.049/675
What is left to say? David Ortiz is one of the greatest hitters in the game today.
Outlook
When I throw all of this stuff together what I wind up with is 870 runs. This is almost exactly what the Sox did in 2007 when they scored 867 runs. I think they will have some guys regress (Youk, Lowell, Pedroia) while others (Ramirez, Drew, Lugo) should give the Sox some help.
It’s a lot of work to wind up with a three run difference but the reality is this should have been an expected result. The Sox are returning eight starters with just Ellsbury replacing Crisp and for the most part the team is veteran based so there shouldn’t be any real variances in performance.
The keys to me are two. First, three players; Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew could give the Sox dramatic improvements over what the club got from those positions last year (with Ellsbury replacing Crisp). Secondly Boston needs to stay healthy. They were fortunate with how healthy they were in 2007 and if they can be similarly healthy that would go a long way toward recreating the performance of the 2007 offense.
(coming Thursday – the pitchers)
1B
Kevin Youkilis – .843/625 - .828/550
Sean Casey - .746/496 - .749/250
Chris Carter – N/A - .800/75
The big item here is that I forecast about a 75 Plate Appearance drop for Youkilis. This is about 15 fewer games and would put him at 130 games. I believe the Sox will look to limit his time a bit and keep him fresh for the second half. Obviously the bulk of time that he misses would go to Casey though I expect Carter to get some PT as well.
2B
Dustin Pedroia - .822/581 - .793/650
Alex Cora - .684/.232 - .637/175
Pedroia should drop off a bit and Cora won’t have the benefit of the super hot April he had in 2007 to bump the numbers up. Pedroia should be more of a regular and play closer to 150 games and be pinch hit for less than he was in 2007.
3B
Mike Lowell - .879/653 - .825/600
Lowell had a spectacular 2007 season. He’ll fall off from that but should still be a productive player. Like Youkilis I expect the Sox to try to give him a little more rest from time to time in 2008 to offset some of his occasional second half doldrums.
SS
Julio Lugo - .643/630 - .720/625
Jed Lowrie – N/A - .775/80
One area where the Sox should see some improvement is in the performance of Julio Lugo. After a bleak start to his Red Sox career Lugo basically returned to his career levels and I expect him to do the same in 2008 without the grim start.
LF
Manny Ramirez - .881/569 - .956/525
Brandon Moss - .819/29 - .727/75
Another guy who should rebound in 2008 is Manny Ramirez. What I fear with Manny is how much he will be in there. I expect a better, but less prolific season due to injury. If the Sox can get some bounceback from Manny AND combine that with improved health that could be enormous.
CF
Jacoby Ellsbury - .903/127 - .751/475
Coco Crisp - .712/591 - .723/175
I’m not quite sure how to balance these guys out. Crisp could get 10 at bats with the Sox and be shipped out in which case Bobby Kielty probably gets a bunch more plate appearances with Brandon Moss also possibly playing a lot more. Obviously I’m not overly optimistic for Ellsbury’s performance though a .751 OPS would be more than acceptable particularly when you add in what would likely be 30+ stolen bases and solid defense.
RF
J.D. Drew - .796/552 - .844/475
Bobby Kielty - .622/61 - .717/125
This could be a very important year for J.D. Drew. If he continues what is now a three year skid that would be a real problem. If he can return to something resembling his former self, even the 2006 version, the Sox will benefit largely.
C
Jason Varitek – .788/518 - .782/475
Kevin Cash - .390/33 - .449/175
Dusty Brown – N/A - .616/50
I’m giving Varitek a little more age related time off. Kevin Cash is going to need to be tremendous defensively to make up for his anemic bat. As always and as with just about every team in baseball, an injury to the starting catcher has the potential to be devastating.
DH
David Ortiz – 1.066/667 - 1.049/675
What is left to say? David Ortiz is one of the greatest hitters in the game today.
Outlook
When I throw all of this stuff together what I wind up with is 870 runs. This is almost exactly what the Sox did in 2007 when they scored 867 runs. I think they will have some guys regress (Youk, Lowell, Pedroia) while others (Ramirez, Drew, Lugo) should give the Sox some help.
It’s a lot of work to wind up with a three run difference but the reality is this should have been an expected result. The Sox are returning eight starters with just Ellsbury replacing Crisp and for the most part the team is veteran based so there shouldn’t be any real variances in performance.
The keys to me are two. First, three players; Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew could give the Sox dramatic improvements over what the club got from those positions last year (with Ellsbury replacing Crisp). Secondly Boston needs to stay healthy. They were fortunate with how healthy they were in 2007 and if they can be similarly healthy that would go a long way toward recreating the performance of the 2007 offense.
(coming Thursday – the pitchers)
3 Comments:
At 4:22 PM,
sugarshane024 said…
The offense looks great on paper. It appears that we have good depth at each position.
It's the pitching that I'm worried about. I think the short offseason might already be taking it's toll on the pitching staff when you consider the injuries to Beckett and Schill already.
At 4:55 PM,
Fragile Freddy said…
I always worry about the pitching depth. I'm not terribly impressed by the hitting depth, I think it looks better on paper than it does functionally, particularly if they deal Crisp.
At 11:04 AM,
t. mous said…
My biggest worry is whether you're right about Manny rebounding and Ortiz not beginning to drop off.
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