2008 Red Sox - The Outlook
On Wednesday I discussed the hitters and on Thursday I discussed the pitchers. With the numbers behind us it is time to review what will happen with the Defending World Champion Boston Red Sox in 2008.
While I think the Red Sox will be very good I think they are being overrated in many quarters. Not terribly so, I just don’t think they are the overwhelming favorite that many are making them out to be.
When you take the run totals I forecasted you wind up with a 95 win team. What I am a bit concerned about is that the Sox had some fortunate things work for them in 2007 that may not be there in 2008. The squad was very healthy and also got some timely performances by people like Tavarez and Cora and those may not be there in 2008.
Let’s look in some detail at the various components at work here.
Offense: I forecasted 870 runs scored the other day. I have laid out my case regarding Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez are middle of the lineup guys who have been sliding. While I forecasted each to rebound some in 2008 I don’t think you can dismiss the possibility that the trends will continue. Mike Lowell is almost a lock to regress from his great 2007 also.
On the flip side there are some potential rebounds. Manny is as likely to improve as to regress (maybe more so). Even my pessimistic forecasts for Ellsbury show an improvement on Coco Crisp’s efforts, I would not be surprised if a bit more rest results in a dramatic boost to Kevin Youkilis’ performance and of course Julio Lugo should be substantially better.
Defense: The 2007 Boston Red Sox were an excellent defensive team. They should be very good once again but there will be a drop off in center field. Even if Ellsbury is very good he is unlikely to be the best defensive centerfielder in the league as Coco Crisp arguably was. This will likely cost the Sox a win or two over the course of the season though that should be offset by the improvement offensively from Coco to Jacoby.
Pitching: What happens if the following two things occur?
Daisuke Matsuzaka does not improve
Jon Lester simply isn’t as good as we hope/think
This becomes a very thin pitching staff in a hurry is what happens. With the injury to Schilling the depth the Red Sox seemed to have is no longer as evident.
The big question this year may be whether or not the Sox can get performances like they did from Tavarez last year from Tavarez himself, Kyle Snyder, David Pauley, Justin Masterson or Bartolo Colon. Additionally while I don’t expect him to regress to 2006 levels Josh Beckett is almost certain to be a bit worse in 2008. Improving on 20-7, 3.27 is pretty darned tough to accomplish.
The flip side to this is I expect the bullpen to be even better in execution than it was in 2007. Reader T. Mous pointed out that I had every reliever except Papelbon having a higher ERA. The reason I say the execution will be better is because with a full season from Delcarmen the Sox should be able to lock games down a little more effectively while not blowing out Okajima. I also like where they are in terms of other guys in the ‘pen. Ignoring LOOGYWIBBAFF Lopez we’ve still got Timlin who will at the very least throw strikes and I like Aardsma, Snyder and Hansen as potential difference makers.
Health: I referenced this the other day, in 2008 the Red Sox got 84% of their starts from their Opening Day lineup, no other team had more than 77%. The Red Sox were fortunate to be fairly healthy in 2007 and are not likely to be that healthy again. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has raved about the Sox medical personnel so certainly some of this health luck has been a luck is the residue of design situation but the Sox were fortunate in 2007.
Outlook: So what is the end result here? To me it is a 92-94 win team. As I said at the outset this is a 95 win team based on my numbers and I suspect a little of this and a little of that will cost them a few wins.
The Sox are coming off a 96 win season when they were actually a bit unlucky. Their 2007 Pythagorean Record was 101-61 so from a purely statistical standpoint I am forecasting a six win drop-off which doesn’t feel outrageous. Conceivably a couple of breaks here and there and they could be a 92/93 win team but wind up at 96/97 wins anyway.
How will this play in the division/wild card chase? The Yankees face similar issues as the Sox with many older players and younger players. They could have great upside and they could underperform. By the same token the Tampa Bay Rays are a team I expect to win 85 games and potentially 90 is doable for them. If that happens things will be a little frisky come Labor Day.
Ultimately I do not believe there is a wide range of results for the Sox barring something catastrophic or unrealistically fortunate. It won’t be easy but my final prediction for the Boston Red Sox is 93-69. I believe that will be enough to repeat as AL East Champions and be their first ever repeat of that title.
While I think the Red Sox will be very good I think they are being overrated in many quarters. Not terribly so, I just don’t think they are the overwhelming favorite that many are making them out to be.
When you take the run totals I forecasted you wind up with a 95 win team. What I am a bit concerned about is that the Sox had some fortunate things work for them in 2007 that may not be there in 2008. The squad was very healthy and also got some timely performances by people like Tavarez and Cora and those may not be there in 2008.
Let’s look in some detail at the various components at work here.
Offense: I forecasted 870 runs scored the other day. I have laid out my case regarding Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez are middle of the lineup guys who have been sliding. While I forecasted each to rebound some in 2008 I don’t think you can dismiss the possibility that the trends will continue. Mike Lowell is almost a lock to regress from his great 2007 also.
On the flip side there are some potential rebounds. Manny is as likely to improve as to regress (maybe more so). Even my pessimistic forecasts for Ellsbury show an improvement on Coco Crisp’s efforts, I would not be surprised if a bit more rest results in a dramatic boost to Kevin Youkilis’ performance and of course Julio Lugo should be substantially better.
Defense: The 2007 Boston Red Sox were an excellent defensive team. They should be very good once again but there will be a drop off in center field. Even if Ellsbury is very good he is unlikely to be the best defensive centerfielder in the league as Coco Crisp arguably was. This will likely cost the Sox a win or two over the course of the season though that should be offset by the improvement offensively from Coco to Jacoby.
Pitching: What happens if the following two things occur?
Daisuke Matsuzaka does not improve
Jon Lester simply isn’t as good as we hope/think
This becomes a very thin pitching staff in a hurry is what happens. With the injury to Schilling the depth the Red Sox seemed to have is no longer as evident.
The big question this year may be whether or not the Sox can get performances like they did from Tavarez last year from Tavarez himself, Kyle Snyder, David Pauley, Justin Masterson or Bartolo Colon. Additionally while I don’t expect him to regress to 2006 levels Josh Beckett is almost certain to be a bit worse in 2008. Improving on 20-7, 3.27 is pretty darned tough to accomplish.
The flip side to this is I expect the bullpen to be even better in execution than it was in 2007. Reader T. Mous pointed out that I had every reliever except Papelbon having a higher ERA. The reason I say the execution will be better is because with a full season from Delcarmen the Sox should be able to lock games down a little more effectively while not blowing out Okajima. I also like where they are in terms of other guys in the ‘pen. Ignoring LOOGYWIBBAFF Lopez we’ve still got Timlin who will at the very least throw strikes and I like Aardsma, Snyder and Hansen as potential difference makers.
Health: I referenced this the other day, in 2008 the Red Sox got 84% of their starts from their Opening Day lineup, no other team had more than 77%. The Red Sox were fortunate to be fairly healthy in 2007 and are not likely to be that healthy again. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has raved about the Sox medical personnel so certainly some of this health luck has been a luck is the residue of design situation but the Sox were fortunate in 2007.
Outlook: So what is the end result here? To me it is a 92-94 win team. As I said at the outset this is a 95 win team based on my numbers and I suspect a little of this and a little of that will cost them a few wins.
The Sox are coming off a 96 win season when they were actually a bit unlucky. Their 2007 Pythagorean Record was 101-61 so from a purely statistical standpoint I am forecasting a six win drop-off which doesn’t feel outrageous. Conceivably a couple of breaks here and there and they could be a 92/93 win team but wind up at 96/97 wins anyway.
How will this play in the division/wild card chase? The Yankees face similar issues as the Sox with many older players and younger players. They could have great upside and they could underperform. By the same token the Tampa Bay Rays are a team I expect to win 85 games and potentially 90 is doable for them. If that happens things will be a little frisky come Labor Day.
Ultimately I do not believe there is a wide range of results for the Sox barring something catastrophic or unrealistically fortunate. It won’t be easy but my final prediction for the Boston Red Sox is 93-69. I believe that will be enough to repeat as AL East Champions and be their first ever repeat of that title.
4 Comments:
At 7:26 AM,
sugarshane024 said…
I've respected your insight, analysis, and opinion since I started reading your blog. On that note, though, I'm entering this season with a shade of pessimism. If you think about it, the Sox will have a much, much shorter offseason than any other team when they kick off on the 25th. And it seems to be catching up to the team already with injuries to Lugo, Crisp, Beckett, and Schilling.
I think the offense will be there, but I'm not sure if the pitching can make it through the season unscathed. As you said, the Sox were overly healthy last year. I don't think that can be expected this year. And I think everybody is overestimating the contributions the Sox will get from Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lester, and even Dice-K to some extent. Maybe I being too cautious, or maybe I'm just being a realist, but either way, color me skeptical.
At 8:27 AM,
Fragile Freddy said…
Yeah, I think I'm being pessimistic, I'm forecasting an eight win drop in Pythagorean Record which is pretty substantial.
I agree with your views on the kids. What saves their bacon potentially is the Yankees with Joba/Hughes/Kennedy and an aging lineup are subject to the same problems.
Add in a vastly improved Tampa team and a Toronto team with strong pitching and I don't think either team wins 95. Don't be shocked if the final weekend at Fenway is winner take all for the Division or go home.
At 11:32 AM,
sugarshane024 said…
I wouldn't be shocked. In fact, I'm counting on it. At that point, it may just be the East crown up for grabs. Both teams may be out of luck for the Wild Card considering the teams in the Central.
As far as the Rays winning 85-90 games, I think they are still one year away. I look for at least one more sub-.500 season before becoming real threats.
At 11:57 AM,
mike_b1 said…
I lie awake at night worried about this team. I see a lot of age at the key positions, a lot of question marks in the rotation, and not a lot of help (insofar as power) on the bench or in the farm system. I see this as a "if everything breaks right, we could go all the way" kind of year.
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