It is commonly said that the Chinese symbol for crisis is a mix of the symbols for danger and opportunity. I am pretty sure that is an urban myth but whether it is true or not there is some accuracy in the concept.
A smart organization in any business can turn all but the most negative of events into a positive with smart and decisive management. The question at hand is have Yu Darvish, Aramis Ramirez and Carl Crawford conspired to present the Boston Red Sox with such an opportunity?
The recent injury to Carl Crawford called into question his ability to start the 2012 season. While the Sox probably do not have a need or desire to fill his brief absence in the lineup with anything more than a Darnell McDonald type they may be able to do so in a memorable, albeit risky manner.
Earlier this off-season the Milwaukee Brewers signed free agent Aramis Ramirez to ostensibly replace star slugger Prince Fielder in the lineup. In recent days Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin has said that the Brewers would be over budget in 2012 suggesting that any hope of bringing the free agent back to the Brew Crew was wishful thinking.
Fielder is one of the prizes of the free agent market, or should be anyway. The corpulent lefty has been unable to generate any real buzz in the market similar to RHP Edwin Jackson. With the Rangers’ announcement that they have reached a deal for star pitcher Yu Darvish the market for Fielder suddenly appears to be the Washington Nationals and the Seattle Mariners with the Detroit Tigers looming but not believed to be active on that front.
Now you are a smart baseball fan and can see where I am going. “But Freddy” you may ask, “you aren’t suggesting Prince Fielder play left field are you?”
No, I’m not an idiot.
I’m suggesting Adrian Gonzalez play left field.
Here is my thinking. At some point the price on a player like Prince Fielder becomes to tempting to pass up. If you can nab Fielder at a reasonable price (5 years, $90 million) then why not do it? The idea here would be that the long term plan would have Fielder at DH with Gonzalez at 1B but in the interim you’d have Fielder at 1B, Gonzalez in LF and when he returns, Crawford in RF.
There is a lot to hate about this idea to be sure. Defensively the Sox would become pretty ugly with Gonzalez probably being the worst defensive left fielder in baseball and Fielder generally a poor defensive first baseman. Add in Crawford’s noodle arm in right and the fact that the Sox really do not need another left handed bat in the lineup and you have some scary prospects.
However, there are a few reasons to explore this in my view;
1. 2012 is shaping up as a “see what happens year.”
Look, if you head to camp with two out of five rotation spots assigned to pitchers who may not last until Patriot’s Day you are hardly a sure thing. If Daniel Bard and/or Alfredo Aceves/Aaron Cook/Felix Doubront pans out, great. If not, the Sox are in for a tough year.
With that in mind taking a long term view of the club makes some sense. I am not suggesting the Sox “punt” the 2012 season and I do not believe this would cause that. If the pitching works out an offense that features Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz AND Prince Fielder would be…well do you want to pitch to that threesome?
2. Crawford’s speed in right would be an asset.
Listen, no one would be foolish enough to suggest that Crawford’s arm in right would not be a liability. However, his great speed would allow him to cut balls off in the gap and in the corner reducing the number of doubles and triples the Sox allow in that direction.
3. 2013-2016 would be awfully fun.
Suddenly the Sox would have moved in the direction of a potent middle of the order similar to what they had with Manny Ramirez/David Ortiz for so long. A Gonzalez/Fielder combo would not be that good but they would be awfully close.
4. If you are putting a terrible fielder somewhere, left field at Fenway is the place to do it.
Gonzalez would be a mess but how much worse than Manny Ramirez would he be? I suspect a bit worse and in places like New York and Tampa with giant left fields there would be an element of risk.
But the Sox do play 81 home games and presumably Gonzalez would be able to fake competence well enough that the improvement from Ryan Sweeney’s bat to Prince Fielder’s bat would make up for it.
Much like the Sox explored signing Mark Teixeira at a time when they had Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell I think exploring Prince Fielder makes sense. Fielder is a dominating slugger and while I would shy away from his rumored 8-10 year demands singing the 28 year old to a five year contract feels like a worthwhile move.
To put some numbers to it;
Current alignment;
Ryan Sweeney – 2.0 WAR
Adrian Gonzalez 1B – 6.5 WAR
Total – 8.5 WAR
Revised alignment;
Prince Fielder – 5.5 WAR
Adrian Gonzalez LF – 4.5 WAR (assumed -1.0 dWAR)
Total – 10.0 WAR
So for 2012 we are looking at a marginal upgrade but in a competitive American League the small numbers will matter. The Sox would then be better suited for the coming seasons with Fielder and Gonzalez at DH and 1B respectively.
Ultimately I think this is probably a bad idea. I noted some concerns earlier and the Sox would basically be making a public announcement “this is David Ortiz’ final year with the Red Sox” which would not go over well with the fanbase and possibly with the temperamental Ortiz. Lastly, my numbers assume that Gonzalez and Crawford (who did not exactly demonstrate a great ability to cope with change a year ago) would remain the players they are in all respects.
But it never hurts for an organization to think a little outside the box.
You bite your tongue!
ReplyDeleteIt is not only a good idea,but a great one. Think of Casey Stengel and Yogi Berra. When Elston Howard's talent could no longer be held back, Yogi became the LFder. If he can do it, A-Gon can. If I had John Henrys check book in hand, it would have already been done.
ReplyDeleteA FA of Fielder's talent,are rare. To have these two, along with Papi and Ellsbury, you could be talking about 150 HR's between them. CC is useless in left,which is why it would make sense to play him in RF,and yes, his speed would make up for his arm.. The run scoring capabilities of this lineup would be off the charts. With a thin, so-so rotation, there are two ways to solve the problem. Thumping them to death is one, and adding another RP such as Ayala,Wheeler or Cruz is another.If you have a bullpen that is deep,and good enough, your starters could be limited to 6 innings, preserving their arms for the long haul. Yes, this is an idea that would be lampooned by just about everybody, but it makes perfect sense,as long as your ownership is 100 percent committed to bringing anther title to Boston. Alas, it is a moot point. Ownership would never spend that kind of money. Congrats to Mike Illitch and the Tigers!
There were three teams that needed Fielder the most. One was the Tigers. To have Miguel Cabrera go through his great career with out a bookend slugger would have been a shame. Next year, when V-Mart comes back, watch out!! Same for Toronto. To let Jose Bautisa go along with out a comparable talent is a shame and a waste, when you know that Toronto would fill that dome with a winner. The Cubs: Fielder would have been the perfect guy to build around,but Theo decided to torture their fans with another endless rebuilding process,breaking up what might have been the best pen in the game. Eventually, Detroit stepped up to the plate and did the right thing.
Watching Fielder's press conference, I was amazed to see how happy Mile llitch was. He is an owner that really wants his town team to go for it. Somehow, I can't imagine John Henry having that same kind of desire, when his mind is on other things, such as soccer and race car driving.I know, Henry and Luchino have spent alot, but could have,and should have been willing to spend more,if that's what it would have taken.
They did not,and we have had one of the worst offseason in recent memory.
Henry is about 14 months removed from committing to $300 million in the form of Crawford and Gonzalez. I think it's unfair to say he lacks the desire to spend.
ReplyDeleteNice to know you like my idea that much. I think it could work though it would be a bit risky. Fortune favors the bold though.
I realize they have committed a lot of money in the past,but to have such a disspointing finish, with two obvious flaws that had to be corrected,and to fail to do so, is wrong, IMO.
ReplyDeleteI don't disagree that there have been mistakes this off-season. I too am troubled by the decision to go with the pitching staff as is but I think it's a failure of decision making, not a failure of committment.
ReplyDelete