With the Hall elections complete I want to take a moment to look at the voting. As always there is something of interest within the voting patterns. The weak crop of first timers certainly helped as many players got a push forward.
Each player is listed with the total number of votes received this year, the percentage this year and the change (up or down) with last year’s percentage listed (2012 from Nick Cafardo, 2011 votes from Baseball-Reference);
Barry Larkin 495 (86.4% up from 62.1%)
Larkin had the largest jump in voting for an inductee since Herb Pennock in 1947. The 86.4% is actually a good total ranking 40th of the 110 BBWAA inductees. Ken Rosenthal on MLB suggested that next year voters would vote for Jack Morris out of fear of being the voter who keeps him out.
That seems to have been at work here for Larkin and in my opinion speaks poorly of the voters. If you feel a player does not belong, you should not feel “bullied” into voting for a player but be able to articulate intelligently why you feel that way.
Jack Morris 382 (66.7% up from 53.5%)
A big jump for Morris who looks well suited to go in through the BBWAA now. I think 2014 will serve him better than 2013 as his perceived dominance will help him versus that year’s first timers like Tom Glavine and Mike Mussina.
Jeff Bagwell 321 (56.0% up from 41.7%)
A nice jump and Bagwell looks to be on a good path. I think he’ll match up well to the coming stars and should get a bit of a “Killer B Boost” with Craig Biggio next year.
Lee Smith 290 (50.6% up from 45.3%)
Tim Raines 279 (48.7% up from 37.5%)
One of the more interesting aspects of next year’s ballot is how Raines is perceived. Does he get “clean” credit or does his past cocaine usage get a spotlight shined on it with the character clause taking center stage?
Edgar Martinez 209 (36.5% up from 32.9%)
Alan Trammell 211 (36.8% up from 24.3%)
Given his short remaining time on the ballot (four more years) Trammell is still a long way away. He should get some boost from Larkin’s induction but I fear he will be pushed off by the strong ballot.
Fred McGriff 137 (23.9% up from 17.9%)
Larry Walker 131 (22.9% up from 20.3%)
A bit of a surprisingly small improvement in my opinion. He is a guy I would have thought was hurt by people not wanting to vote him in as a first ballot guy. That does not appear to be the case and his trek to the Hall looks long and difficult right now.
Mark McGwire 112 (19.5% down from 19.8%)
A big reason I believe none of the steroid guys are getting in under the current format. People are simply not changing their minds on McGwire who is not gaining any traction.
Don Mattingly 102 (17.8% up from 13.6%)
Dale Murphy 83 (14.5% up from 12.6%)
Rafael Palmeiro 72 (12.6% up from 11%)
Bernie Williams 55 (9.6% first timer)
Williams did worse than I anticipated. I really thought he was clocking in around 20% before votes started leaking out.
Juan Gonzalez 23 (4.0% down from 5.2%)
Gonzalez falls off the ballot.
Remaining players are first timers who fell short of the necessary 5% to stay on the ballot;
Vinny Castilla 6 (1.0%)
Tim Salmon 5 (0.9%)
Moderately surprised that Salmon and Castilla did not do a bit better. Both are popular players with solid numbers.
Bill Mueller 4 (0.7%)
We’ll always have Mariano, Dave Roberts, and Joe Castiglione;
“not gonna bunt he swings and LINES ONE UP THE MIDDLE A BASE HIT! Roberts hits third, here he comes. Bernie Williams’ throw…is cut off and the game is tied!!! Rivera cuts the throw and Bill Mueller has tied it!”
Brad Radke 2 (0.3%)
Javy Lopez 1 (0.2%)
A little surprising to me that he did not do better. His rate stats were solid for a catcher. I think catcher is a position where offense seems to be undervalued by the voters.
Eric Young 1 (0.2%)
You could have made a lot of money around 1992 by saying that Ruben Sierra would fall off the Hall of Fame ballot after his career without receiving a single vote.
If writers are holding drug use against Raines, then they certainly should have done the same when voting for Willie Stargell, whom multiple players (including Dave Parker) implicated as a drug supplier.
ReplyDeleteMark McGwire truly was one of the great power hitters of his day (even if his numbers may have been a bit enhanced). He could really launch balls into the upper deck routinely, was a patient hitter who also drew walks, and intimidated pitchers into intentionally walking him. He truly was a player that was worth the price of admission. It's a shame that they're holding the steroid allegations against him, otherwise I think he would've been a no doubt, surefire, first ball hall of famer.
ReplyDeleteAs for Javy, it probably had a lot to do with him not being Greg Maddux's personal catcher. He was a good offensive catcher that struggled to call a good game, or to block balls in the dirt, but he was one of the best hitting catchers of his era. I thought for sure he'd be on future ballots.