Hall of Fame Week - The Ballot (Part One)

Well, we have looked at some of the current players making a case and I got in depth on Bernie Williams.  Now what you have all been waiting for, my mythical Hall of Fame ballot.  The first fourteen alphabetically now, the second thirteen later; 

Jeff Bagwell – YES – This is an absolute no brainer to me.  His career OPS+ is 34^th all time and while best known as the great hitter he was he was also a solid defender and a fine base runner with 202 stolen bases.

Jeromy Burnitz – NO – Burnitz is well short of the line in terms of peak, longevity and perception.  I always try to find at least one argument for a player for induction but in Burnitz’ case I cannot see it.

Vinny Castilla – NO – I have talked at length in this series about the bias against third basemen but Castilla just is not there.  A sub-100 OPS+ is not sufficient.

Juan Gonzalez – NO – Gonzalez is a bit of a tricky case for me.  He has a lot of peak value and was well-regarded in his day with two MVPs to his credit.  While he may have deserved neither I think that speaks to how he was viewed.  Ultimately his career was too short.  Had he been able to eek out a couple more seasons his peak would likely have pushed him in.

Brian Jordan – NO – If the ballot needs a cornerback for a flag football game they have one.  At his best his great speed made him an impact defender and a player capable of performances that exceed perception.  He had too few years like that though.

Barry Larkin – YES – Larkin is hurt by his health record.  Only once in his career (1998-1999) did he have successive seasons with over 135 games played.  That is a bit of a disservice though as he played 110 of 112 games in 1994 and 131 of 144 games in 1995.  His career mark of 9,057 PA is sufficient and this was a quality defender at a key position who also had a great bat.  To put him into perspective;

Derek Jeter – 117 OPS+

Barry Larkin – 116 OPS+

Jeter has an edge in playing time but Larkin was every bit the player Jeter was and a superior defender.

Javy Lopez – NO – As catchers go Lopez’ performance on the offensive side deserves recognition. His career OPS+ of 112 is a bit light, but not dramatically so.  Unfortunately Lopez added very little defensively and even at the position where the playing time norms are lowest, he comes up short with just 1,503 career games.

Edgar Martinez – YES – I dug into Edgar last year at this time and found that his numbers are sufficient.  The short version of that longer piece is that for me a DH has to be better than any hitter I would not vote for and Edgar does indeed meet that harsh criteria.

Don Mattingly – NO – Donnie Baseball was well on his way in the mid-80s when injuries slowed him down.  From 1984 to 1989 he was a Hall of Famer but he just did not put enough around it to get in in my mind.  He is closer of being worthy than he is often given credit for but does not get there.

Fred McGriff – NO – Last year I gave him a yes vote but this year I (as predicted last year) have flip-flopped.  McGriff was a great player but as great as some of his numbers were, I think he is similar to Bernie Williams in lacking that peak.

Mark McGwire – YES – The idea that McGwire is a product of just his home runs is ridiculous.  McGwire was a fine defensive player in his youth, not great but solid and his .394 OBP is better than Hall of Famers like Rod Carew (.393), Tony Gwynn (.388) and just behind Richie Ashburn (.396).  Take any of those players and give them 583 home runs and it really is an easy call, is it not?

The PED issue is one for the voters to decide for themselves but any idea that McGwire is just a “slugger” is foolish.  Even if you discount some homers, would those players I mentioned above be Hall of Famers with 550 homers?  500?  450?  Of course.  So too is McGwire.

Jack Morris – NO – Morris’ overall numbers are clearly short of the Hall.  This leaves him with three arguments; that he “pitched to the score,” that he was better than he appeared as shown by the way he was viewed in his era and his post-season greatness;

Pitched to the Score - Joe Sheehan debunked this rather conclusively almost a decade ago.

Appreciated in his era – Morris was not overwhelmingly supported for Cy Young Awards in his career.  He is 73^rd in Cy Young Shares with only Don Drysdale, Bert Blyleven, Don Sutton and Phil Niekro behind him among starters in the Hall (not counting those who did not play in the Cy Young Award era).

Post-season greatness – Presented without comment;

Jack Morris – 3.80 post-season ERA

Bert Blyleven – 2.47

Derek Lowe – 3.21

Bob Stanley – 2.77

Bill Mueller – NO – Mueller was never the star that one needs to be for induction and his career with less than 5,000 PA was far too short.  On the other hand, if I had a vote to give I’d probably slip him one because…well, you know.

Terry Mulholland – NO – Mulholland turned in a fine career for himself though his post-season record makes Jack Morris look like Cristy Mathewson.  Still, nothing wrong with what Mulholland did and he had a great pickoff move which I always like.