Sox Trade Marco Scutaro...What's Next?

The Red Sox pulled off a fairly surprising trade Saturday evening when they sent starting shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies for RHP Clayton Mortensen.  There is a lot at work here to contemplate so let’s just pump out some bullet points;

The Trade

In a vacuum this is a horrendous deal.  To get Mortensen (5.12 MLB ERA, 4.87 minor league ERA) for Scutaro is just an awful return.  Mortensen was a first round supplemental pick by the Cardinals in 2007 so thinking it through it feels like at best he is a Kyle Snyder type who might stumble into a couple of good months.

But let’s not sugarcoat this.  This is a salary dump and Mortensen is just a body who is unlikely to ever pitch a meaningful inning for the Sox.  He’ll likely pitch more in March than he will from April to October.

As an aside I have to admit that some of my disappointment is that Marco Scutaro is one of my favorite Red Sox.  It is not a matter of him being a great player, he is just a hard working player who seems to keep his mouth shut, do his job and try to help the team win.

Payroll

Now we get to the crux of the issue.  The Sox have not hidden from the fact that they are not going to be raising their payroll this off-season.  By moving Scutaro they have freed up about $6 million.

That does not mean the Sox are suddenly going all Pittsburgh Pirates on us.  Based on Baseball Reference the Sox spent $155 million last year and this year have $128 million invested right now (after this deal) with arbitration awards coming for several players with David Ortiz (minimum $12.5 million) the most meaningful.

In the end the Sox are going to wind up at about $145-150 million if they make no other moves.  A slight downgrade from 2011 but not so much to view as meaningful.

Shortstop

The biggest impact of this deal is that the Red Sox are weakened at shortstop.  The Sox have three options;

Nick Punto – Punto is really not a regular player.  He is a fine defender and a tolerable bat but he has never started more than 93 games in a single season and that was five years ago.  He is a 250-300 at bat guy.

Mike Aviles – The good news is that Aviles can be a useful bat if he is on.  He does not walk at all so he is all batting average.  If he can hit .280 or above he has some value, anything lower than .280 and you really don’t have much of a hitter.  Defensively he is weak.

Combo Plate – The likeliest option is that the Sox will combine the two.  Neither player has such a dramatic platoon edge to suggest a true righty/lefty platoon but perhaps something where Punto plays when ground ball pitchers (Clay Buchholz, Aaron Cook) start and fly ball pitchers result in Aviles.

Jose Iglesias – This would probably be a reach but it is not as much of one as you and I may think.  While Iglesias does not hit much his ZiPS projection puts him at an OPS+ of 59.  Now that is of course laughably bad but not entirely without use.

By way of comparison we have Jack Wilson.  Wilson is pretty much Iglesias, great glove, lousy bat and in fact had an OPS+ of 59 in 2011.  In just 79 games that combined with his defense was good for a 0.9 WAR.   Iglesias probably won’t play 158 games so doubling it for 1.8 is optimistic but put him at about 120 games and +/- 1.3 WAR is possible IF he hits like that.

To be honest this appeals to me.  As a fan the idea of watching the slick fielding Iglesias regularly sounds like fun and similar to watching Daniel Bard try to become a starter.  The pluses should Iglesias pan out are truly exciting.

In the end I think Aviles/Punto are the guys.

Other Dominoes

Of course there is the likely scenario that makes this move logical, the Sox are going to make another move.  Candidly I will be shocked if the Sox do not announce another move by Monday afternoon and like everyone else I am assuming it will be;

Roy Oswalt – Everyone is predicting this but it is far from a sure thing.  If the Sox can land Oswalt this move will effectively be the following;

Marco Scutaro replaced by Mike Aviles/Nick Punto at shortstop

Roy Oswalt replacing Alfredo Aceves in rotation

Alfredo Aceves replacing…oh holy hell, Andrew Miller? in the bullpen

or think of it as a trade;

Scutaro for Oswalt and a reliever

Yeah, that’s a good deal.

But what if it is not Oswalt?  Just thinking this through some possibilities at hand;

Cody Ross – The Sox may be looking at Ross as a right handed hitting outfielder (which makes sense since he is in fact a right handed hitting outfielder).  I do not like this move if this is what the money is for.

Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez is signed at $15 million this year and next with a  $16 million option for 2014.  If you believe that Ramirez can rebound to the superstar he was using that $6 million savings to put Ramirez at short would be a huge upgrade.

I am not a fan of Ramirez either the person or the game (he has declined dramatically the last two seasons) and this is a big risk.  Of course the Sox would need to do this as a trade and whether or not they have the players to make that feasible is a fair question though the Marlins may be motivated to trade Ramirez who depending on what you read may or may not be grumpy about a shift to third base.

Remember, Ben Cherington was co-GM at the tiM. Ramirez was dealt to the Marlins.  That could mean he views Ramirez as one who got away or a sign that he viewed Ramirez as a player better suited to trade than to keep.

Matt Garza – The same lack of upper-level minor league talent that makes Ramirez a tough get makes Garza a tough get.  However, the current minor league system is fundamentally all Theo Epstein guys so Theo may view players like Anthony Ranaudo or Will Middlebrooks as quality players.

I think Garza or Ramirez are both highly unlikely to be coming to Boston.

Conclusion

There is going to be a subsequent move here.  If the Sox sign Oswalt or trade for Gavin Floyd then this is a good move.  If the Sox use this money to sign Cody Ross or simply wait for a mid-season move then I think this is an error.

I think any definitive opinions on this trade require waiting for this “other shoe.”  Until that happens I do not think we can truly evaluate this move.