Fragile Freddy's

MLB Top 100 Prospects and the Red Sox They Love

2012-01-27T09:27:00.000-05:00

Major League Baseball’s Jonathan Mayo released his list of the Top 100 Prospects in MLB. The Red Sox have four players on the list though none above #56. Let’s look at the four players and consider what this may mean;

#56 – Will Middlebrooks – 3B – I am underwhelmed by Middlebrooks who has horrendous plate discipline. He has a beautiful swing and very good power to all fields but I remain firm in my belief that Ben Cherington should be shopping him aggressively.

#64 – Bryce Brentz – OF – Brentz is a talented all around outfielder who had a fine season in 2011. It seems to me that the consensus is that he has a very good chance to be a solid if not better everyday outfielder.

#76 – Xander Bogaerts – SS - Sox Prospects is just one of many places that indicate the expectation that Bogaerts’ long term prospects lay at third base rather than shortstop. There seems to be a belief that his bat is so good that he may stick at shortstop simply by that basis and be similar to what we saw in recent years from Hanley Ramirez, great bat, bad glove.

#93 – Ryan Lavarnway – C – As you likely know Lavarnway is a big slugging catcher with question marks surrounding his defense. In very limited time I thought he looked more than adequate behind the dish with soft hands and quick feet.

What does this tell us about the Sox system? I think this is best taken in conjunction with John Sickels' recent ranking of the Sox as the 12^th best system in baseball. Sickels notes that while the Sox lack stars they seem to be pretty deep, particularly offensively.

It is a bit frustrating to see the Sox so devoid of top level talent. However, if the Sox can develop solid core players internally their ability to spend big money on star level talent (e.g. Adrian Gonzalez) can augment that well.

Two names not on the list jump out; Jose Iglesias and Anthony Ranaudo. Iglesias you are probably pretty familiar with. The slick fielder has not hit at an acceptable rate in the minors yet and even for a guy projected as a glove man that is a problem.

Ranaudo is a bit more curious to me. Ranaudo was considered in some circles to be the the best pitcher in the 2010 draft (the Bryce Harper draft) but had some injury issues at Louisiana State and dropped to #39.

What is curious is why he would be out of the top 100. 2011 was his first minor league season and he pitched very well against age appropriate competition at Class A Greenville before struggling a bit at Hi A Salem.

I am not questioning his lack of inclusion, there are so many pitchers out there that it can be tough to make the list. Still, he seems to have been brushed aside but I have not read anything as to why his stock has fallen.

The Sox have a deep system with a high number of players viewed as potential MLB regulars. At the same time they lack stars. 2012 is likely a year where we will see some of these players separate themselves and emerge as potential stars in some cases and potential busts in others.

Check out this piece on Ranaudo that features an interview with him.

Thoughts on Respect in the Media

2012-01-26T09:45:00.000-05:00

Respect is a word that gets thrown around a lot in sports. Whether it is respect by opponents, fans or the media you can pretty much count on teams, coaches and fans having either a sincere or manufactured belief that they are being “disrespected” as a means toward motivation.

We see this within “media on media” crime as well. You can ask 1,000 younger members of the media, traditional or blogosphere, and hear story after story about how Murray Chass or Dan Shaughnessy or others disrespect what they do. At the same time asking 1,000 more traditional members of the media will point out the way Keith Law or Joe Sheehan or others are insulting and condescending in the way they handle things.

I have noticed respect as a theme in the media this month. Perhaps it is no more or less than usual but I have been taking note of it and wanted to address it. There are three areas which highlight this for me;

Holly Rowe – If you are not familiar with Rowe she is an ESPN sideline reporter. At the conclusion of the Sugar Bowl Rowe physically moved a staffer working for the Sugar Bowl’s media relations director out of the way to secure a live, post-game interview with the winning coach.

It seems that this was not an unreasonable event but I think it speaks to a lack of respect. As an adult and a professional Rowe certainly should have been able to request that the person (who she knows based on the ESPN article) let her in for the post-game interview that is a standard part of the experience.

The end result of this is that Holly Rowe physically assaulted a colleague for no other reason than to secure what is typically an unenlightening interview. This demonstrates a lack of respect for a fellow professional attempting to do her job.

Tim Thomas – As you likely know by now Thomas elected to skip the Bruins’ team visit to the White House citing frustrations with the way the government conducts itself. As you might expect such a high profile rebuff of the President of the United States in conjunction with a team event led to no small amount of discussion.

While the general consensus seemed to be against Thomas some, such as Kirk Minihane were complimentary toward Thomas’ “conviction.” I read seven or eight articles on the subject (not all linked here obviously) and every single one took the time to be critical in either an overt manner or a more subtle fashion.

The Thomas stories would have been the same 25 years ago but the ability to read more than one or two would have been limited. With so much accessibility it seems that reporters (old and young) go out of their way to be bombastic rather than offering a sincere opinion. To me this represents a lack of respect for the reader, insinuating that I am incapable of drawing a proper conclusion when presented with facts.

Boston Sports Media Watch – BSMW has an outstanding mission, to hold a light to those in the media and ensure that they are writing in a fair and even-handed manner. Unfortunately that goal, which I should note is my perception, not anything I’ve seen overtly stated at BSMW, has gotten lost in recent years.

BSMW has done some exceptional reporting over the years. The work they have done on plagiarism including Ken Powers and Ron Borges was the sort of top notch reporting to be proud of.

However, all too often recently BSMW has become a shill for local teams. It now seems that any slight against a local team is dismissed despite Bruce Allen’s* claims that he welcomes differences of opinion. I read BSMW daily and have never seen the site critical of a piece positive of a local team.

The concept of monitoring those who are reporting is excellent. It must be remembered that “skepticism” does not mean “always wrong.” An informed criticism, even from a disliked source should be applauded.

*Allen runs BSMW and does a lot of the writing/linking. His weekly SBNation column is a “must read.”

What about respect?

I started this by talking about respect in the coverage of media. One of the basic forms respect is to consider differing viewpoints and allow those who are perceived as less worthy to have the same opportunities.

The role of media is changing as is our consumption of it. As a society we have access to so much more information than ever before. This does not necessarily make us better informed. Information must be disseminated in a fair manner with consideration given to all issues.

Strong opinions are to be valued. I am all for Kevin Paul Dupont or Gerry Callahan or Kirk Minihane stating how they feel whether the issue is as meaningful as Presidential politics or mundane as who the Sox’ mop up man is going to be. I read and listen to these types of people for their opinions as I hope you read this site for mine.

However, it is vital that those of us providing information provide all the facts when sharing our opinion. A well crafted argument should be able to share the positives of an opposition view yet still clearly indicate why the alternate view is opposed.

This seems to be lacking in the spaces that I frequent and I think we as information consumers are worse off for it.

What's Left?

2012-01-25T09:44:00.000-05:00

The Sox noisily created a hole in the infield for themselves with their trade of Marco Scutaro last week. While they possess in-house options with Nick Punto, Mike Aviles and Jose Iglesias there are reports that they are looking outside the organization for some help.

Shortstop is not the only open slot on the roster. The Sox are likely to still have interest in a starting pitcher and in my opinion should be considering another reliever as well.

While Spring Training is fast approaching and most of the big names are off the board when it comes to free agents, that does not mean the Sox do not still have options. There are some players out there who could be of help to the local nine. Let’s take a look at some possibilities based on ESPN's Free Agent Tracker;

Roy Oswalt – RHP – I covered this in detail earlier in the week. I really want him.

Edwin Jackson – RHP – Jackson reportedly is willing to consider a one year deal with his market shrinking fast. Jackson is not a star but he is a solid and durable pitcher who would give the Sox some certainty they currently lack.

Jeff Francis – LHP – Francis is a step down from the previous two hurlers on this list but he could be helpful. Odd to say about a guy who missed a season with major arm surgery in 2009 but he is generally durable and while not great, is not awful.

Juan Cruz – RHRP – Cruz is kind of a Scot T. Williamson-type. Skinny (though not as short) and tends to have high walk totals but augments that with a decent K rate and an ability to avoid hits. Durability is not his strong suit but 40-50 innings of Cruz is likely to be helpful.

Brad Lidge – RHRP – I am not quite sure why Lidge is still out there. If he is seeking a pure Closer’s role then Boston (with Andrew Bailey) is probably not the place. If he is willing to come in and play the role Takashi Saito played so well in 2009 (jack of all trades, master of none) he could be a nice fit. His contract demands may not be feasible.

Dan Wheeler – RHRP – For the same reasons I liked picking up Wheeler a year ago I still like him. He has his flaws (LHB, the home run ball) but is a solid reliever. After his May DL stint he was a different pitcher last year (11.32 ERA before, 2.54 ERA after).

And one more interesting player;

Pedro Ciriaco – SS – Maybe you are better than me and caught this, but apparently the Red Sox already have this guy signed as a non-roster invitee for Spring Training. ESPN still lists him as unsigned but the Sox’ official website says he is an NRI and they are usually the last (since they have to wait for the Is to be dotted and the Ts to be crossed).

So who the hell is he? Well, he has been in both the Diamondback and then Pirate systems with fairly minimal MLB experience. Pirates Prospects describes him as strong defensively and very fast saying “(h)is arm and defensive ability are above average and his speed rates a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale.”

They paint a less rosy picture of his offense noting that “he lacks power, doesn’t make good contact, and rarely walks.”

So he is Jose Iglesias with less glove and more speed.

Ciriaco got a late season call up in 2011 and posted a very nice .303/.324/.424 line. His minor league numbers suggest that was beginner’s luck and I won’t share his minor league numbers with you for fear you will be struck blind in terror.

Still, if he can pick it and he can run he probably gets a Spring Training look. I would expect him to be a nothing player who never suits up in the regular season but his profile struck me and in a world where the best free agent shortstops left are Ryan Theriot and Jeff Keppinger (neither an upgrade over what the Sox have) I figured I would talk about him a bit.

Prince and Cody on the Move

2012-01-24T16:01:00.000-05:00

Some things happening around Major League Baseball this week, let’s touch on them;

Item: Prince Fielder signs with Detroit Tigers – 9 years, $214 million (breaking story, exact numbers may change)

Thoughts: This is somewhat reminiscent of the Red Sox’ pursuit of Mark Teixeira prior to the 2009 season. While the Tigers have the “advantage” of incumbent DH Victor Martinez on the DL for all of 2012 the fact is they have marginalized a guy who is still set to earn $25 million for 2013-2014.

Presumably the Tigers will slot Fielder at first with Miguel Cabrera, ostensibly more versatile, moving somewhere else. Designated Hitter seems the logical spot but early reports are saying both third base and left field are possible options. If you thought my idea of moving Adrian Gonzalez to left field was wacky, think of Miguel Cabrera plodding around spacious Comerica Park 81 times a year.

Speaking of Gonzalez (cause this is a Red Sox blog), just give this some thought;

Adrian Gonzalez – 7 years, $148 million

Albert Pujols – 10 years, $240 million

Prince Fielder – 9 years, $214 million

Say what you want about what Theo Epstein left behind, consider this. If the Sox had not made the trade and subsequent signing last year they would have had to invest an extra;

3 years, $92 million for Pujols

2 years, $66 million for Fielder

Say what you want about Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes, the three of them combined are unlikely to be worth that kind of scratch. Theo hit a home run there.

Back to this move I say “bravo!” to the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are in a great position to win their division. Rather than sit back, take a 90 win season and a division title they have invested aggressively with the goal of challenging for bigger and better things.

Item: Red Sox sign Cody Ross

Thoughts: On Saturday I said of the Marco Scutaro trade that “(t)he Sox may be looking at Ross…I do not like this move if this is what the money is for.” To be a bit clearer I love the acquisition of Ross, I just hope the savings from the Scutaro deal get more than Ross.

As for Ross himself he made way too much sense for the Sox. When I wrote my plan for the off-season Ross was my choice as fourth outfielder. The right-handed swinging Ross augments the port-sided Sox beautifully and while he is not a star, he is an upgrade over Darnell McDonald in the event that Carl Crawford’s injury lingers or Ryan Sweeney and Ryan Kalish cannot provide stability in right field.

Additionally, Ross provides versatility with over 150 games at all three outfield positions. While Ross does not rate highly as a defensive player neither does he rate poorly. Add in that career .282/.349/.563 line against lefties and he fits this team perfectly.

The Sox still need to use that Marco Scutaro money for bigger and better things.

A Look at Roy Oswalt

2012-01-23T15:36:00.000-05:00

Pretty much everyone including your intrepid correspondent is predicting that the Sox are preparing a major push to acquire RHP Roy Oswalt. It seems that the general consensus is that this would be a wise acquisition benefitting the Sox but is that the case?

Let’s look at the positives and negatives that Roy Oswalt would bring to the Boston Red Sox;

Positives

Oswalt is simply put a very good pitcher. In over 2,100 career innings he has an ERA+ of 133. To put that into perspective among pitchers with 2,000 or more innings by age 33 Oswalt is 17^th all time, just behind Whitey Ford and ahead of Jim Palmer in that category. Everyone ahead of him on the list is or will be in the Hall of Fame.

Oswalt is a strike thrower whose walk rate has consistently hovered around his career mark of 5.6% throughout his career. There is nothing especially notable about his ground ball/fly ball splits other than the fact that he doesn’t really have a meaningful split. That percentage has tilted a bit toward the fly ball in recent years but not in an especially big way.

Stylistically Oswalt is reminiscent of a late-career Schilling. He’s not going to give you a lot in the way of curveballs or sliders but he is going to mix a couple of different fastballs and a changeup while locating everything well to keep hitters off balance.

Negatives

This is a pitcher with a lot of miles on him. Oswalt has been a 30 start/200 inning machine but in 2011 a back injury limited him to just 23 starts and 139 innings. Additionally, his K rate dropped precipitously in 2011 though it should be pointed out that his post-DL K rate was a much more palatable 17.8% suggesting that his back was causing problems in the first half.

Other

Oswalt did not face any AL East teams in 2011 but in one start against the potent Texas Ranger lineup he allowed just one run on eight hits over seven innings. His career interleague ERA is 3.70. Against the Yankees he is 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA, the Rays, 1-0, 2.35.

On June 11, 2003 Oswalt was lifted after one inning from a start in the Bronx. Six Astro pitchers (including Oswalt) combined on a no hitter that day.

Overall

Include me in the group who thinks this is a great pick up if the Sox can swing it. Even if he is just 20-25 starts and 130-150 innings that should have tremendous value.

One of the most underrated aspects of the 2012 Red Sox is the concept of low hanging fruit. In 2011 the Sox won 90 games despite horrifying results from starting pitchers other than Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. If the Sox can add a pitcher who is league average (and Oswalt should be better than that) suddenly, well think of it like this;

Tim Wakefield 2011 – 5.12 ERA in 23 starts

Roy Oswalt 2011 – 3.69 ERA in 23 starts

What do you want to bet that replacing Wake with Oswalt would have been worth a playoff berth in 2011?

Sox Trade Marco Scutaro...What's Next?

2012-01-21T21:59:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox pulled off a fairly surprising trade Saturday evening when they sent starting shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies for RHP Clayton Mortensen. There is a lot at work here to contemplate so let’s just pump out some bullet points;

The Trade

In a vacuum this is a horrendous deal. To get Mortensen (5.12 MLB ERA, 4.87 minor league ERA) for Scutaro is just an awful return. Mortensen was a first round supplemental pick by the Cardinals in 2007 so thinking it through it feels like at best he is a Kyle Snyder type who might stumble into a couple of good months.

But let’s not sugarcoat this. This is a salary dump and Mortensen is just a body who is unlikely to ever pitch a meaningful inning for the Sox. He’ll likely pitch more in March than he will from April to October.

As an aside I have to admit that some of my disappointment is that Marco Scutaro is one of my favorite Red Sox. It is not a matter of him being a great player, he is just a hard working player who seems to keep his mouth shut, do his job and try to help the team win.

Payroll

Now we get to the crux of the issue. The Sox have not hidden from the fact that they are not going to be raising their payroll this off-season. By moving Scutaro they have freed up about $6 million.

That does not mean the Sox are suddenly going all Pittsburgh Pirates on us. Based on Baseball Reference the Sox spent $155 million last year and this year have $128 million invested right now (after this deal) with arbitration awards coming for several players with David Ortiz (minimum $12.5 million) the most meaningful.

In the end the Sox are going to wind up at about $145-150 million if they make no other moves. A slight downgrade from 2011 but not so much to view as meaningful.

Shortstop

The biggest impact of this deal is that the Red Sox are weakened at shortstop. The Sox have three options;

Nick Punto – Punto is really not a regular player. He is a fine defender and a tolerable bat but he has never started more than 93 games in a single season and that was five years ago. He is a 250-300 at bat guy.

Mike Aviles – The good news is that Aviles can be a useful bat if he is on. He does not walk at all so he is all batting average. If he can hit .280 or above he has some value, anything lower than .280 and you really don’t have much of a hitter. Defensively he is weak.

Combo Plate – The likeliest option is that the Sox will combine the two. Neither player has such a dramatic platoon edge to suggest a true righty/lefty platoon but perhaps something where Punto plays when ground ball pitchers (Clay Buchholz, Aaron Cook) start and fly ball pitchers result in Aviles.

Jose Iglesias – This would probably be a reach but it is not as much of one as you and I may think. While Iglesias does not hit much his ZiPS projection puts him at an OPS+ of 59. Now that is of course laughably bad but not entirely without use.

By way of comparison we have Jack Wilson. Wilson is pretty much Iglesias, great glove, lousy bat and in fact had an OPS+ of 59 in 2011. In just 79 games that combined with his defense was good for a 0.9 WAR. Iglesias probably won’t play 158 games so doubling it for 1.8 is optimistic but put him at about 120 games and +/- 1.3 WAR is possible IF he hits like that.

To be honest this appeals to me. As a fan the idea of watching the slick fielding Iglesias regularly sounds like fun and similar to watching Daniel Bard try to become a starter. The pluses should Iglesias pan out are truly exciting.

In the end I think Aviles/Punto are the guys.

Other Dominoes

Of course there is the likely scenario that makes this move logical, the Sox are going to make another move. Candidly I will be shocked if the Sox do not announce another move by Monday afternoon and like everyone else I am assuming it will be;

Roy Oswalt – Everyone is predicting this but it is far from a sure thing. If the Sox can land Oswalt this move will effectively be the following;

Marco Scutaro replaced by Mike Aviles/Nick Punto at shortstop

Roy Oswalt replacing Alfredo Aceves in rotation

Alfredo Aceves replacing…oh holy hell, Andrew Miller? in the bullpen

or think of it as a trade;

Scutaro for Oswalt and a reliever

Yeah, that’s a good deal.

But what if it is not Oswalt? Just thinking this through some possibilities at hand;

Cody Ross – The Sox may be looking at Ross as a right handed hitting outfielder (which makes sense since he is in fact a right handed hitting outfielder). I do not like this move if this is what the money is for.

Hanley Ramirez – Ramirez is signed at $15 million this year and next with a $16 million option for 2014. If you believe that Ramirez can rebound to the superstar he was using that $6 million savings to put Ramirez at short would be a huge upgrade.

I am not a fan of Ramirez either the person or the game (he has declined dramatically the last two seasons) and this is a big risk. Of course the Sox would need to do this as a trade and whether or not they have the players to make that feasible is a fair question though the Marlins may be motivated to trade Ramirez who depending on what you read may or may not be grumpy about a shift to third base.

Remember, Ben Cherington was co-GM at the tiM. Ramirez was dealt to the Marlins. That could mean he views Ramirez as one who got away or a sign that he viewed Ramirez as a player better suited to trade than to keep.

Matt Garza – The same lack of upper-level minor league talent that makes Ramirez a tough get makes Garza a tough get. However, the current minor league system is fundamentally all Theo Epstein guys so Theo may view players like Anthony Ranaudo or Will Middlebrooks as quality players.

I think Garza or Ramirez are both highly unlikely to be coming to Boston.

Conclusion

There is going to be a subsequent move here. If the Sox sign Oswalt or trade for Gavin Floyd then this is a good move. If the Sox use this money to sign Cody Ross or simply wait for a mid-season move then I think this is an error.

I think any definitive opinions on this trade require waiting for this “other shoe.” Until that happens I do not think we can truly evaluate this move.

Crazy Sports Radio Style Idea for a Friday

2012-01-20T10:58:00.000-05:00

It is commonly said that the Chinese symbol for crisis is a mix of the symbols for danger and opportunity. I am pretty sure that is an urban myth but whether it is true or not there is some accuracy in the concept.

A smart organization in any business can turn all but the most negative of events into a positive with smart and decisive management. The question at hand is have Yu Darvish, Aramis Ramirez and Carl Crawford conspired to present the Boston Red Sox with such an opportunity?

The recent injury to Carl Crawford called into question his ability to start the 2012 season. While the Sox probably do not have a need or desire to fill his brief absence in the lineup with anything more than a Darnell McDonald type they may be able to do so in a memorable, albeit risky manner.

Earlier this off-season the Milwaukee Brewers signed free agent Aramis Ramirez to ostensibly replace star slugger Prince Fielder in the lineup. In recent days Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin has said that the Brewers would be over budget in 2012 suggesting that any hope of bringing the free agent back to the Brew Crew was wishful thinking.

Fielder is one of the prizes of the free agent market, or should be anyway. The corpulent lefty has been unable to generate any real buzz in the market similar to RHP Edwin Jackson. With the Rangers’ announcement that they have reached a deal for star pitcher Yu Darvish the market for Fielder suddenly appears to be the Washington Nationals and the Seattle Mariners with the Detroit Tigers looming but not believed to be active on that front.

Now you are a smart baseball fan and can see where I am going. “But Freddy” you may ask, “you aren’t suggesting Prince Fielder play left field are you?”

No, I’m not an idiot.

I’m suggesting Adrian Gonzalez play left field.

OK, so I’m a bit of an idiot and a bit of a hypocrite to boot.

Here is my thinking. At some point the price on a player like Prince Fielder becomes to tempting to pass up. If you can nab Fielder at a reasonable price (5 years, $90 million) then why not do it? The idea here would be that the long term plan would have Fielder at DH with Gonzalez at 1B but in the interim you’d have Fielder at 1B, Gonzalez in LF and when he returns, Crawford in RF.

There is a lot to hate about this idea to be sure. Defensively the Sox would become pretty ugly with Gonzalez probably being the worst defensive left fielder in baseball and Fielder generally a poor defensive first baseman. Add in Crawford’s noodle arm in right and the fact that the Sox really do not need another left handed bat in the lineup and you have some scary prospects.

However, there are a few reasons to explore this in my view;

1. 2012 is shaping up as a “see what happens year.”

Look, if you head to camp with two out of five rotation spots assigned to pitchers who may not last until Patriot’s Day you are hardly a sure thing. If Daniel Bard and/or Alfredo Aceves/Aaron Cook/Felix Doubront pans out, great. If not, the Sox are in for a tough year.

With that in mind taking a long term view of the club makes some sense. I am not suggesting the Sox “punt” the 2012 season and I do not believe this would cause that. If the pitching works out an offense that features Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz AND Prince Fielder would be…well do you want to pitch to that threesome?

2. Crawford’s speed in right would be an asset.

Listen, no one would be foolish enough to suggest that Crawford’s arm in right would not be a liability. However, his great speed would allow him to cut balls off in the gap and in the corner reducing the number of doubles and triples the Sox allow in that direction.

3. 2013-2016 would be awfully fun.

Suddenly the Sox would have moved in the direction of a potent middle of the order similar to what they had with Manny Ramirez/David Ortiz for so long. A Gonzalez/Fielder combo would not be that good but they would be awfully close.

4. If you are putting a terrible fielder somewhere, left field at Fenway is the place to do it.

Gonzalez would be a mess but how much worse than Manny Ramirez would he be? I suspect a bit worse and in places like New York and Tampa with giant left fields there would be an element of risk.

But the Sox do play 81 home games and presumably Gonzalez would be able to fake competence well enough that the improvement from Ryan Sweeney’s bat to Prince Fielder’s bat would make up for it.

Much like the Sox explored signing Mark Teixeira at a time when they had Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell I think exploring Prince Fielder makes sense. Fielder is a dominating slugger and while I would shy away from his rumored 8-10 year demands singing the 28 year old to a five year contract feels like a worthwhile move.

To put some numbers to it;

Current alignment;

Ryan Sweeney – 2.0 WAR

Adrian Gonzalez 1B – 6.5 WAR

Total – 8.5 WAR

Revised alignment;

Prince Fielder – 5.5 WAR

Adrian Gonzalez LF – 4.5 WAR (assumed -1.0 dWAR)

Total – 10.0 WAR

So for 2012 we are looking at a marginal upgrade but in a competitive American League the small numbers will matter. The Sox would then be better suited for the coming seasons with Fielder and Gonzalez at DH and 1B respectively.

Ultimately I think this is probably a bad idea. I noted some concerns earlier and the Sox would basically be making a public announcement “this is David Ortiz’ final year with the Red Sox” which would not go over well with the fanbase and possibly with the temperamental Ortiz. Lastly, my numbers assume that Gonzalez and Crawford (who did not exactly demonstrate a great ability to cope with change a year ago) would remain the players they are in all respects.

But it never hurts for an organization to think a little outside the box.

The Others

2012-01-19T10:47:00.000-05:00

The Boston Red Sox generate about as much attention as any major sports team in the country. With the exception of the Yankees, Montreal Canadiens and probably a few college football teams the Red Sox get a level of coverage and scrutiny that is rarely exceeded.

As a result this leaves little in the way of the unexpected. Every year we see that notion dismissed though with Daniel Nava and Matt Albers recent examples of under the radar players who had key roles the last couple of years.

With that in mind I want to consider a few players who warrant a bit more attention than they seem to be getting as we are just one month from pitchers and Molinas reporting (h/t Will Carroll).

RHP – Michael Bowden

The eternal prospect Bowden is out of options. The Red Sox will have two choices, bring him North with the club or expose him to the rest of Major League Baseball for the waiver fee where he almost surely would be lost.

Bowden is still just 25 years old and while he hardly has an overwhelming record he has shown enough to think he can contribute as a reliever. Despite not having great “stuff” a move to the bullpen took root in 2011 as Bowden had a 2.76 ERA and his K rate jumped noticeably.

A pitcher with a 3.4 K/BB ratio and a 2.76 ERA at AAA deserves consideration and in the Sox open tryout of a bullpen there is a real opportunity for this young man to live up to his billing.

C – Kelly Shoppach

Shoppach is certainly no star but he is a productive and useful player. Shoppach owns lefties (career: .274/.373/.536 vs. LHP) and his struggles the last couple of years is almost entirely a function of facing righties.

Incumbent Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a perfect mix with Shoppach. Saltalamacchia struggles badly against southpaws suggesting that if Bobby Valentine were to deploy the two as a strict platoon the Sox could have one of the best catchers in the American League. It’s almost blasphemous to say but Saltalamacchia/Shoppach could replicate the great work the mid-00s Sox got from Jason Varitek/Doug Mirabelli.

1B – Lars Anderson

He is still here. Candidly he was the inspiration for this piece as I thought he was gone, but he’s not. The power Anderson was expected to have has never really blossomed though he has shown an ability to draw walks and add solid gap power to his game.

Anderson will likely never be a star but he is just 24 and many young players add power late. While I do not expect this Ryan Howard is a player who went from 23 homers to 46 homers between ages 23 and 24. If Anderson could make a similar jump from his 14 homers to say 25 or so, he would become a very useful player indeed.

Ultimately I think his value is as trade bait. He could be an important player if Adrian Gonzalez or David Ortiz succumb to injury for an extended period.

RHP – Junichi Tazawa

It would not shock me if we looked back at the 2012 season and said that the difference between the playoffs in 2012 and missing them in 2011 was Junichi Tazawa.

The 2011 Sox were sunk when a rotation held together with spit and duct tape finally fell apart as Kyle Weiland, Tim Wakefield and others were unable to give the Sox even an occasional start that did not inspire words like “embarrassing” and “minor league.”

Tazawa is a definite Freddy Fave. If he can return to the promise he showed in 2009 he could be a critical component for this club.

Bench Coach – Tim Bogar

Pitching Coach – Bob McClure

One of Terry Francona’s failings in 2011 was an inability or unwillingness to adapt. As an outsider he looked like a guy managing without support. This is all conjecture of course but it seemed that pitching coach Curt Young and bench coach Demarlo Hale were not able to give Francona that sounding board that a good manager in any business needs.

The loss of key figures Brad Mills and John Farrell in recent years seemed to bring about a degradation of Francona’s ability. Any manager is only as good as the staff around him and the new guys did not seem to provide what the old guys had.

If Bogar and McClure can provide useful counsel to Bobby Valentine, that will help the Boston Red Sox.

State of the AL East - The Outfields

2012-01-18T09:21:00.000-05:00

Earlier this winter I took a look at the AL East starting rotations and last week added the AL East infields to the mix. Seems logical to me that a glance at the various outfields is a pretty good place to go next.

All projected outfields based on official club depth charts;

#1 New York Yankees

Projected Outfield – Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher

This is a heck of a group without question. Granderson is coming off a season that generated MVP talk but at 5.2 WAR was actually not out of line with his mid-20s performances in Detroit. If he has rebounded to that level that is a huge boost.

Gardner is a tricky one to evaluate. His value is heavily wrapped up in his defense and that 4.4 WAR is only accurate to the point that you grant validity to the 3.2 dWAR (defensive Wins Above Replacement). Gardner is a truly magnificent defensive player but I am a skeptic. Not only was Gardner the best defender in the AL by dWAR he eclipsed second place Alberto Callaspo by 1.5 WAR.

Acknowledging that he plays half his games in a left field where his defense can be impactful, that just doesn’t pass the smell test with me.

Swisher is an underrated player on both sides of the ball with an awkwardness to his defense overshadowing the fact that he is pretty good out there.

#2 Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Outfield – Eric Thames, Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista

Bautista, Keith Law and Peter Gammons probably would be a pretty good outfield with Bautista’s outrageous performance in 2011 giving validity to 2010’s effort. Suddenly he is putting together a Sammy Sosa style career.

Rasmus is a guy who almost universally was expected to benefit from a change of scenery but struggled badly in his first half season with the club. Teammate Yunel Escobar had the same rep and while he was not as bad as Rasmus in his first half season of 2010 he improved greatly in his first full season. The Jays will hope for the same from Rasmus.

Thames is the weak link though he has some pop.

#3 Tampa Bay Rays

Projected Outfield – Desmond Jennings, B.J. Upton, Matt Joyce

This is probably the most dramatic range of possibilities from a group. I would not be shocked if this turned out to be the best outfield in the division with youngster Jennings blossoming and free agent to be Upton stepping up.

Conversely, if Jennings struggles to adjust to big league pitching, Upton remains the player he has been and platoon heavy Joyce is exposed they could be the worst outfield in the division.

#4 Boston Red Sox

Projected Outfield – Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Sweeney

This is a better group than is perceived by Sox fans I think. While Ellsbury is going to decline some I think he showed that there was legitimate power growth last year. Not only were the homers flying out but he showed some opposite field power and that is a sign of real improvement.

Crawford is a mystery. Logic says that the talented left fielder should bounce back but he looked truly helpless in every phase of the game last year. This was not a player struggling in BABIP or something, this was a guy who failed at the plate, in the field and on the bases. I do not know why he would have regressed so badly but I do not think he is a certainty to bounce back and yesterday’s announcement that he had wrist surgery certainly doesn’t improve those odds.

Sweeney is a potentially valuable contributor. He is well regarded defensively and while he has no power a .342 OBP from a guy playing half the time in Oakland is awfully good. .The average AL 8^th hitter hit .240/.305/.375 last year, a Mark Sweeney (2011: .265/.346/.341, career: .283/.342/.378) should improve upon.

#5 Baltimore Orioles

Projected Outfield – Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis

Markakis is a puzzle to me. He started his career looking like a long term star but has not built upon that and has in fact regressed. Jones is very similar as a player who seems to be loaded with talent but has not yet made a dramatic leap forward. At age 26 this year this would seem a time where Jones may break out.

Reimold has good power but is limited beyond that.

Offense=Dominance?

2012-01-17T06:27:00.009-05:00

I have been tossing this around in my mind a bit lately. In the early and middle part of this past decade we saw the Red Sox and Yankees universally derided for the way they were perceived to dominate the sport. At the same time we saw runs being scored at a very high rate.

Over the last couple of years the two clubs have been presented with new challengers in places like Tampa and Texas. During this time we have seen a reduction in runs scored.

You can kind of see where my mind was headed can’t you? Is there something about a high run environment that lends itself to creating era-dominance? This probably deserves more of a study than what I have here but I wanted to take a brief look at the issue.

The first thing I did was use the wonderful Baseball-Reference and Microsoft Excel to create a chart of runs/game/team by year since 1920. This may be a bit small but here is what I wound up with;

Just looking at this visually we can see a few spikes;

late-20s/early-30s

late-40s

early-70s

mid-90s/early-00s

It is not necessarily that these are the highest scoring periods, but that these periods see some spikes versus the recent years.

Thinking it through we can see some correlation to some of the more memorably great teams in baseball history;

late-20s/early-30s – Philadelphia Athletics and St. Louis Cardinals win 5 of 6 pennants 1929-1931

late-40s – Yankees win 6 of 7 World Series through 1953

early-70s – Oakland Athletics win five consecutive division titles and three straight World Series

mid-90s/early-00s – Yankees win four out of five World Series and six pennants in eight years.

This is far from conclusive but it kept the ol’ noggin’ spinning around. Why would an offensive era be conducive to great performance? I came up with the following three reasons;

1. Hitting is easier to judge than pitching

The simple fact is that in the history of baseball it has always been easier to find hitters than pitchers. Between injuries and random variance pitching is a bit dicey at the best of times. This allows a smart, well-run and yes, well-funded organization to put together the best overall team because a great slugging team can overwhelm teams when runs are going up thick and fast.

2. The X factor is less meaningful

#1 dovetails nicely into #2. Any baseball game is ultimately at the whim of the starting pitcher. In a great offensive era the likelihood of an elite pitcher truly slamming the door on a potent offense is greatly reduced. Thus, the impact of the pitcher is generally reduced (super-duper pitchers, e.g. Pedro, Lefty Grove notwithstanding).

3. Managers matter less

In that same vein the ability of a wise skipper to guide his team to victory is going to be reduced. High offense eras should result in fewer close games. Talent is going to win out in blowouts where dumb luck and smart leadership are going to be meaningful in close games the rarity of those close should be to the advantage of superior teams.

As a note I have not verified that high offensive eras create fewer one and two run games.

Conclusion

The general point is that superior teams should be at an advantage in high offensive eras. We know that blowouts favor better teams while close games allow for the sorts of events that help lesser teams.

Just looking over the past couple of decades think about some of the more unlikely champions;

1988 Dodgers – 4.14 league runs/game/team

1991 Twins – 4.31 league runs/game/team

2011 Cardinals – 4.28 league runs/game/team

As I said this is hardly any sort of conclusive study. It is more a quick glance that supports an initial hypothesis. Thinking it through it makes some sense to me. I would welcome any thoughts; pro or con, that you may have.

Time for a Counter?

2012-01-16T06:40:00.000-05:00

With their surprising activities Friday night the Yankees firmly threw down a gauntlet in the AL East. The question has been raised if the Sox need to counter the Yankees' machinations. When asked about the Yankee moves Boston skipper Bobby Valentine noted that they "probably" upgraded the Yanks.

Tim Britton in the above quoted piece (“probably”) made an excellent point. He noted that while the additions of Pineda and Kuroda appear to be substantial upgrades on paper on the field they may be less meaningful.

In 2011 the Yanks got 26 starts out of Bartolo Colon with an ERA+ of 111. It is unlikely that Pineda, will represent a dramatic upgrade there though he should be expected to give more than the 164.1 innings Colon gave.

Kuroda will be replacing A.J. Burnett though and here there should be some upgrade with Burnett having provided an ERA+ of 86 over 32 starts. However, Kuroda is projected by one measure to give just a 102 ERA+ which while good, is hardly earth-shattering.

Thinking about this got me thinking about the Sox’ situation. While certainly there are question marks about the rotation as currently constituted the Sox have the “advantage” of replacing some disasters. In 2011 the Sox #4 and 5 starters were Tim Wakefield (23 starts, 83 ERA+) and John Lackey (28 starts, 66 ERA+).

In 2012 the Sox have four pitchers likely to fill those two roles; Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront and Junichi Tazawa. These four pitchers have fairly modest projections but those projections have some hope associated with them;

Felix Doubront – 92 ERA+

Junichi Tazawa – 81 ERA+

Dan Szymborski who runs ZiPS has not done projections for Bard and Aceves yet. We can make some rough estimates at a projection for one of them though;

Alfredo Aceves – 9 career starts, 4.18 ERA, roughly an 85-90 ERA+

That leaves Daniel Bard. If we put him at an 80-90 level that is probably a fairly conservative projection.

The likely outcome of course is that of these four pitchers some do better, and some do worse. This gives the Sox a situation where they should feel confident that they can expect to receive a better performance from their #4/5 starters in 2012.

The point being that the Sox do not need to counter anything. What the Red Sox have to do is worry about making their team the best they can. Personally I would feel a lot better if the Sox had a more reliable arm out there. Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett are hardly the most durable guys in the world and their efforts are much more difficult to replace than those of Wake, Lackey and Andrew Miller/Kyle Weiland/etc…

Yankees/Mariners Trade Montero/Pineda

2012-01-13T20:12:00.002-05:00

The story is just coming in now but according to Larry Stone of the Seattle Times the Mariners have traded young RHP Michael Pineda and minor league pitcher Jose Campos to the Yankees for uber-prospect Jesus Montero and RHP Hector Noesi.

This is a stunning deal with dominoes aplenty. With this story yet to be written let’s quickly look at what this may mean;

for Yankees – The Yanks have opened up their DH spot rather nicely. This gives them some wiggle room for their aging infield, notably Alex Rodriguez, to spend time at Designated Hitter. This should open things up for Eduardo Nunez but also paves the road for Austin Romine (son of former Red Sox OF Kevin) to seize the catching job. Russell Martin remains the incumbent and his place is surely more solidified.

On the mound the Yanks add a talented young pitcher to an aging club. The Bronx Bombers, after a decade of trying to build the offense are getting back to the core of what has won them 27 World Series, pitching. They suddenly feature a talented young staff with Pineda and Ivan Nova in support of star C.C. Sabathia.

for Mariners – The M’s add a potent, middle of the order bat to the club in Montero. The general consensus is that even if Montero cannot stay behind the plate his bat will play in the middle of the lineup. The Mariners almost snagged Montero in the middle of the 2010 season in a Cliff Lee deal that got nixed by the Yanks at the last minute. They have finally gotten their man.

If I were Seattle I think I would have preferred to hold Pineda and tried to build a championship team around twin Aces in Pineda and superstar Felix Hernandez. This is hardly a bad move though as it is more than reasonable to think that Montero will be the kind of superstar impact bat that changes things.

for Red Sox – Hey, it’s a Red Sox blog so the Sox have to be impacted here. If you’re the Red Sox there have to be mixed feelings here. On the one hand the Yanks have let go a potentially monster bat but they have added a gifted arm. This will work unless it doesn’t (woo, now THAT’S analysis).

However, for the Sox this comes with an opportunity. While the Yankees should be expected to continue to pursue pitching, they are certainly going to be less incentivized which should open up the market for the Hiroki Kuroda/Roy Oswalt/Edwin Jackson/Joe Saunders grouping a little bit.

for Prince Fielder – The Mariners have been rumored to be a bit of a stalking horse for Fielder. With Montero added to a club with the so far disappointing but still young Justin Smoak it is fair to question if Fielder has just lost a potential suitor.

for Paul Konerko – WHAAAT? OK, hear me out. This does not actually impact Konerko but he is the closest thing to Montero I can find. Konerko was Baseball America’s #2 prospect prior to the 1998 season. At mid-season he was dealt by the Dodgers to the Reds for reliever Jeff Shaw (Shaw made his Dodger debut in the All Star game).

Scanning the Baseball America Top 100 list database that is the last time such a highly regarded prospect was dealt with such little experience. Konerko is an excellent comp for Montero. He too was a catcher with concerns about his defense though Konerko had moved out from behind the plate full time at that point. Konerko of course went on to the kind of career that the Mariners would be thrilled with (especially if it has a World Series ring as a part of it).

This is a great deal for both teams. The Yankees got a young starting pitcher that changes the look and feel of their club dramatically. Meanwhile the Mariners have added the type of bat they have not had since Edgar Martinez’ hey day.

This trade should leave both teams a bit uneasy about the talent they surrendered, and quite excited about the talent they received. This is the mark of a fair trade.

*******************************************************

Addendum – 9:15PM

And my prediction that the Yanks may not be incentivized to go after a Kuroda type looks stupid as they have added him as well.

Without question this is an excellent move by GM Brian Cashman. Hideki Kuroda is not a star but he is very good and precisely the type of pitcher a good offense/good bullpen team like the Yankees should have been after.

State of the AL East - The Infields

2012-01-12T14:27:00.002-05:00

Earlier this winter I took a look at the AL East starting rotations in the wake of erroneous reports that Toronto had landed the rights to Yu Darvish. With no such foolish transactions at hand I wanted to take a moment to consider the state of the AL East infields today.

All projected infields based on official club depth charts;

#1 New York Yankees

Projected Infield – Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter

I don’t think I am being unreasonable when I suggest an infield made up of four potential Hall of Famers is pretty darned good. Age remains a concern particularly in the cases of A-Rod and Teixeira who have shown signs of decline with health adding to the concerns about Rodriguez.

Utilityman Eduardo Nunez has an OK bat but was a disaster with the glove last year. He committed 20 errors in 425 innings (roughly 47 games worth of playing time). It is unthinkable that he is truly that poor but if he is his bat won’t carry his glove.

#2 Boston Red Sox

Projected Infield – Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Marco Scutaro

Scutaro is the odd man out here that differentiates the Sox from the Yankees. While still sure-handed defensively he also lacks range. As a group there may be a bit more certainty from the Sox with two players (Pedroia and Gonzalez) being mid-prime versus just Cano for New York.

Teixeira is not particularly old but he looks to be aging early based on performance. I think he is more likely to recover some value versus Gonzalez’ value than Scutaro vs. Jeter is which gives the Bombers the edge.

The clubs’ similarities continue with third base being staffed by a potentially elite player fraught with injury risk.

Backup Nick Punto was an excellent pickup for a club with a couple of defensive liabilities (Scutaro and Youkilis). Mike Aviles is a flawed but useful bat off the bench.

#3 Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Infield – Adam Lind, Kelly Johnson, Brett Lawrie, Yunel Escobar

GM Alex Anthopolous has quietly put some nice moves together. There is some real star potential in the youngster Lawrie and Escobar and Johnson create a solid keystone combination. They are not flashy defensively but more than competent and both bring solid bats to the mix.

Lind has regressed badly from what looked like a breakout 2009 season. I do not know what happened but I would not be surprised if this is a bit of a last chance saloon for him with the Jays.

Whether you look at Luis Valbuena or Mike McCoy as the primary utility infielder there is real weakness there. Both players make Punto look like Rogers Hornsby and while neither is poor defensively both are miscast if asked to play shortstop.

#4 Tampa Bay Rays

Projected Infield – Ben Zobrist, Elliot Johnson, Evan Longoria, Sean Rodriguez

The Rays are awfully thin on the infield right now. A recent signing of Luke Scott may give them a boost if he were to play first with a corresponding move to second by Zobrist but even then they would be a bit lacking.

If you have to find a position to fill late, first base is not a bad option. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Matt Joyce is working out as a "just in case" option at first base. If he can hack it he may be a very nice fit indeed. Joyce has never played the position in either the Majors or minors.

The Rays are filled with tolerable backups depending on how things pan out. Johnson, Rodriguez and Reid Brignac are all acceptable in the role and Zobrist’s versatility gives them options.

#5 Baltimore Orioles

Projected Infield – Mark Reynolds, Brian Roberts, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy

There is some potential here though my optimism for it is limited. Roberts has battled injuries the last couple of years. Reynolds and Davis are potentially big sluggers and while neither is likely to hit for a high average they have the power to help compensate. Reynolds walks quite a bit so he can put up a solid OBP even with a very low average.

You can make a case that the well-rounded Hardy is the best shortstop in the division.

Utilityman Robert Andino is well known to Red Sox fans. He is solid as backups go and while not an ideal starter he is similar to Scutaro in that he derives a fair amount of value from his OBP so his OPS/OPS+ numbers undervalue him a bit.

Sox Sign Aaron Cook

2012-01-11T06:30:00.000-05:00

It’s hardly a blockbuster move but the Sox have added some potential depth to the rotation by signing RHP Aaron Cook to a minor league deal. Cook is perhaps best known to Red Sox fans as the starting pitcher in Game Four of the 2007 World Series but he is an interesting guy too look at.

When Cook is on his game he is a ground ball machine. Cook has a career ground ball rate of over 57% (thanks, FanGraphs) which is quite similar to former Red Sox pitcher Justin Masterson (56.1%).

The last couple of seasons have been unkind to Cook. After posting an ERA+ over 100 for 7 of his first 8 MLB seasons (of varying length) Cook had just a 91 in 2010 and a 74 in 2011. At first glance 2011 is largely BABiP driven (.346). Looking further his Fielding Independent Pitching numbers remain largely unchanged in recent years supporting that position;

2008 – 4.58

2009 – 4.60

2010 – 4.54

2011 – 4.54

By that measure he has remained a pretty steady pitcher.

However, that dismisses a couple of items that need to be considered;

1. BABIP works as a predictor if you assume general ability. Cook has never been a hard thrower and FanGraphs uses PitchFx to show that his velocity is declining in a meaningful way;

2008 – 91.6 MPH

2009 – 90.1 MPH

2010 – 89.7 MPH

2011 – 88.2 MPH

This is not a case of a player who is simply having bad luck. Cook’s “stuff” is less than it was and thus the expectation of more hard hit balls is coming true as we see in results (elevated BABIP) and a career worst line drive rate in 2011 (21.6%).

2. Like any pitcher of Cook’s type he relies in part on his ability to locate the ball. This too is getting away from him as the last two seasons have been his worst walk rates since 2004.

With all this said I like the pickup. Cook has battled some injuries the last two seasons and his performance, while poor, has not been so bad as to make a rebound impossible. He is precisely the kind of pitcher who could bounce back well and be a steal.

Hall of Fame Voting Reviewed

2012-01-10T08:15:00.000-05:00

With the Hall elections complete I want to take a moment to look at the voting. As always there is something of interest within the voting patterns. The weak crop of first timers certainly helped as many players got a push forward.

Each player is listed with the total number of votes received this year, the percentage this year and the change (up or down) with last year’s percentage listed (2012 from Nick Cafardo, 2011 votes from Baseball-Reference);

Barry Larkin 495 (86.4% up from 62.1%)

Larkin had the largest jump in voting for an inductee since Herb Pennock in 1947. The 86.4% is actually a good total ranking 40^th of the 110 BBWAA inductees. Ken Rosenthal on MLB suggested that next year voters would vote for Jack Morris out of fear of being the voter who keeps him out.

That seems to have been at work here for Larkin and in my opinion speaks poorly of the voters. If you feel a player does not belong, you should not feel “bullied” into voting for a player but be able to articulate intelligently why you feel that way.

Jack Morris 382 (66.7% up from 53.5%)

A big jump for Morris who looks well suited to go in through the BBWAA now. I think 2014 will serve him better than 2013 as his perceived dominance will help him versus that year’s first timers like Tom Glavine and Mike Mussina.

Jeff Bagwell 321 (56.0% up from 41.7%)

A nice jump and Bagwell looks to be on a good path. I think he’ll match up well to the coming stars and should get a bit of a “Killer B Boost” with Craig Biggio next year.

Lee Smith 290 (50.6% up from 45.3%)

Tim Raines 279 (48.7% up from 37.5%)

One of the more interesting aspects of next year’s ballot is how Raines is perceived. Does he get “clean” credit or does his past cocaine usage get a spotlight shined on it with the character clause taking center stage?

Edgar Martinez 209 (36.5% up from 32.9%)

Alan Trammell 211 (36.8% up from 24.3%)

Given his short remaining time on the ballot (four more years) Trammell is still a long way away. He should get some boost from Larkin’s induction but I fear he will be pushed off by the strong ballot.

Fred McGriff 137 (23.9% up from 17.9%)

Larry Walker 131 (22.9% up from 20.3%)

A bit of a surprisingly small improvement in my opinion. He is a guy I would have thought was hurt by people not wanting to vote him in as a first ballot guy. That does not appear to be the case and his trek to the Hall looks long and difficult right now.

Mark McGwire 112 (19.5% down from 19.8%)

A big reason I believe none of the steroid guys are getting in under the current format. People are simply not changing their minds on McGwire who is not gaining any traction.

Don Mattingly 102 (17.8% up from 13.6%)

Dale Murphy 83 (14.5% up from 12.6%)

Rafael Palmeiro 72 (12.6% up from 11%)

Bernie Williams 55 (9.6% first timer)

Williams did worse than I anticipated. I really thought he was clocking in around 20% before votes started leaking out.

Juan Gonzalez 23 (4.0% down from 5.2%)

Gonzalez falls off the ballot.

Remaining players are first timers who fell short of the necessary 5% to stay on the ballot;

Vinny Castilla 6 (1.0%)

Tim Salmon 5 (0.9%)

Moderately surprised that Salmon and Castilla did not do a bit better. Both are popular players with solid numbers.

Bill Mueller 4 (0.7%)

We’ll always have Mariano, Dave Roberts, and Joe Castiglione;

“not gonna bunt he swings and LINES ONE UP THE MIDDLE A BASE HIT! Roberts hits third, here he comes. Bernie Williams’ throw…is cut off and the game is tied!!! Rivera cuts the throw and Bill Mueller has tied it!”

Brad Radke 2 (0.3%)

Javy Lopez 1 (0.2%)

A little surprising to me that he did not do better. His rate stats were solid for a catcher. I think catcher is a position where offense seems to be undervalued by the voters.

Eric Young 1 (0.2%)

Jeromy Burnitz 0

Brian Jordan 0

Terry Mulholland 0

Phil Nevin 0

Ruben Sierra 0

You could have made a lot of money around 1992 by saying that Ruben Sierra would fall off the Hall of Fame ballot after his career without receiving a single vote.

Tony Womack 0

Barry Larkin - Hall of Famer!

2012-01-09T15:02:00.003-05:00

Congratulations to the newest member of the National Baseball Hall of Fame; Barry Louis Larkin!!!

Larkin was a great all around player who was the true epitome of the “five tool player.” Larkin was well respected during his playing days for this all around game receiving three Gold Gloves for his superior defense and starting five All Star Games for the National League.

Off the field Larkin engendered great respect as well. In 1993 he was named the winner of the prestigious Roberto Clemente Award honoring players “who best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual's contribution to his team.” Longtime readers know the high regard with which I view this supreme honor.

In 1990 Larkin was one of the stars of a shocking World Series upset when the Reds swept the defending champion Athletics with Larkin hitting .353 for the series. In 1995 the Reds reached the NLCS where they were swept by the eventual World Series champion Braves. Larkin did his part though with a dominant .389/.421/.611 effort against that great Atlanta pitching staff.

Larkin comes from a sporting family. Younger brother Byron was a star collegiate basketball player at Cincinnati-based Xavier University.

Larkin becomes the first player in three years (Jim Rice) and 36^th overall to enter the Hall after playing his entire career for just a single franchise. He joins fellow Reds Bid McPhee and Johnny Bench in this group.

Congratulations to Barry Larkin and his many fans!!!

Time For John to Stand Up

2012-01-09T05:41:00.000-05:00

Like many of you I am a diehard Red Sox fan. As long time readers know I have the ability to see the best of even bad situations related to the Sox.

That does not mean I turn a blind eye to times when the Red Sox are clearly in the wrong. Certainly one area where the Sox have a historical track record that is less than pride inspiring is their track record with regard to race relations.

At times I have felt that the Sox have received unfair criticism in this manner. The failure of the late-40s/early-50s Sox to integrate sooner is shameful but also over half a century old. More recently, though now a quarter century in the rear view mirror is the ugliness involving Tommy Harper and the segregated Elks Club brings shame to this proud club and its fans.

In recent years the club and its fans have embraced a multi-ethnic group of stars. Mo Vaughn, Pedro Martinez, Hideki Okajima, and others have become well loved stars and are just a few who may have found themselves treated vastly differently in previous eras.

Despite this the Sox still have this issue hanging over their heads.

It is for this reason that events in England are so troubling.

Late in 2010 the Fenway Sports Group purchased the popular Liverpool Football Club in England. Liverpool are one of the most decorated squads in European soccer with 18 domestic championships and are one of just three teams to win the prestigious Champions League (nee European Cup) five or more times.

Unfortunately recent events have been met with silence by Henry and FSG and it is time for them to speak loudly.

The first event occurred when star striker Luis Suarez was punished with an eight game suspension (in a 38 game season) for racially abusing black* opponent Patrice Evra. Liverpool’s defense of Suarez, which included Suarez t-shirts worn by the club, has been harshly criticized by most observers.

* I use the term “black” because to call the Senegal-born Evra “African-American” would be ridiculous. If there is a more appropriate term I would welcome the learning opportunity.

Making it worse was the appalling behavior of some attendees at Liverpool’s recent game against Oldham. While Liverpool has stepped up and apologized in this instance it is time for John Henry to stand up and strongly denounce the behavior of the club and the fans.

While it is unfair to intertwine the behavior of Liverpool and the Boston Red Sox life is rarely fair. As a Red Sox fan I have no interest in seeing racism by anyone even mildly connected to the Boston Red Sox brought up as a problem.

The time is now for John Henry to step up and strongly denounce racism in the clearest possible terms. He needs to send the message that the ownership of Liverpool F.C., and by extension ownership of Roush Fenway Racing and yes the Boston Red Sox consider racism to be nothing but the act of stupid, ignorant, self-hating morons who will be exposed and shunned in a manner befitting such asinine behavior.

Hall of Fame Week - The Ballot (Part Two)

2012-01-06T12:27:00.000-05:00

I looked at the first fourteen players on the ballot (alphabetically) this morning. Now, the final thirteen;

Dale Murphy – YES – Murphy is similar to Mattingly as a player who appeared well on his way then faded. Where Murphy gets in that Mattingly does not is in two areas; first Murphy played a crucial defensive position extremely well (Mattingly was great defensively but at an easy position) and second Murphy had 1300 more plate appearances.

Phil Nevin – NO – Nevin came up short but that is nothing new for #1 picks. At the moment no #1 overall pick is in the Hall though in coming years Ken Griffey Jr. (1987), Chipper Jones (1990) and Alex Rodriguez (1993) should change that.

Rafael Palmeiro – YES – Palmeiro is fundamentally an all-longevity case but at some point the numbers become too overwhelming. Unfairly remembered for the Gold Glove he did not deserve Palmeiro was an excellent defensive player in his prime.

Brad Radke – NO – Radke probably had a few more years to give but he chose to walk away after the 2006 season due to injuries. With 148 wins and a 3^rd place Cy Young season in 1997 his career was one to be proud of. Oh, another pitcher with a better post-season ERA than Jack Morris (3.60).

Tim Raines – YES – This one kills me. I try to understand all viewpoints but sometimes you read something that makes you question whether the writer understands the game of baseball. Ron Chimelis of The Republican offered this theory on Tim Raines;

But if Raines gets in because he is fifth in steals, what about Vince Coleman, who is sixth?  That's why I talked myself out of it.

Dear God that’s just awful. Tim Raines is not a Hall of Famer because of his 808 steals, he is a Hall of Famer because of his 808 steals AND his .385 OBP AND his 2,502 games played AND his 2,605 hits AND his 1,330 walks AND his 64.6 Wins Above Replacement. He is not comparable to Vince Coleman, he is comparable to some of the great left fielders in history.

According to Baseball-Reference Raines ranks as follows among the 22 Hall of Fame left fielders (min. 500 games at the position);

7^th in WAR (Carl Yastrzemski ahead, Al Simmons behind)

8^th in OBP (Goose Goslin, Enos Slaughter)

3^rd in Stolen Bases (Lou Brock, Max Carey)

7^th in Games (Babe Ruth, Billy Williams)

8^th in Runs (Lou Brock, Max Carey)

I can accept arguments against Tim Raines as a Hall of Famer. For a voter to be so incompetent as to think based on one superficial statistic that Tim Raines and Vince Coleman were at all comparable is embarrassingly wrong.

Tim Salmon – NO – Salmon had a quietly excellent career. In many ways he is similar to Paul Konerko with the caveat that Konerko is aging considerably better allowing him to put up greater numbers. At his best Salmon was a fine player but that’s it.

Ruben Sierra – NO – Sierra is similar to Mattingly as a player who looked headed for a Hall of Fame career early. Sierra hung around longer with over 2,100 games but the latter two thirds of his career dragged him out of contention.

Lee Smith – YES – Ah my annual dance with Lee Arthur Smith. I remain stuck where I was last year with Smith giving him the nod on the basis that while the Closer’s role is unnecessary, what one does with it is not. Unlike a starter and wins, closers do have true control over whether they earn the save and Smith was more prolific than most.

Alan Trammell – YES – Trammell is a player harmed by his era and by his career shape. Ultimately his raw numbers look a bit light but when you consider them in the context of his era (through OPS+ of 110 and WAR of 66.9) you appreciate him. His other problem was the lack of a cohesive peak with good and sub-par seasons interspersed. I hold that against him but it is not enough to knock him off his perch.

Larry Walker – NO – Walker is possibly the most challenging player to evaluate on the board. He is the first true Rockie on the ballot and while his 140 OPS+ looks sufficient we have to consider the possibility that he benefits more than most from his home park in Denver. Also, Walker had a short career with just 8,030 career PA.

What I wanted to do was compare Walker’s home/road rates to other similar players using Baseball-Reference’s Similarity Scores;

Walker – 1.068 home/.865 road – home factor – 123 (home OPS divided by road OPS * 100)

Duke Snider - .959/.880 – home factor – 109

Ellis Burks - .917/.831 – home factor - 111

Moises Alou – .940/.834 – home factor – 113

Jim Edmonds - .916/.890 – home factor – 103

Joe Dimaggio - .938/1.015 – home factor – 92

Johnny Mize – 1.004/.916 – home factor – 110

Todd Helton – 1.071/.869 – home factor - 123

Vladimir Guerrero - .950/.912 – home factor – 104

Chuck Klein – 1.028/.813 – home factor – 126

Albert Pujols – 1.047/1.028 – home factor – 102

As we see the only players with similar home factors as favorable as Walker are his teammate Helton and Chuck Klein who played in the Baker Bowl which was fundamentally the 30s version of Coors and Wrigley Field for most of his career.

This leaves me uncomfortably voting “NO” for Walker. At his best Walker was an elite player but like I discussed with Bernie Williams yesterday he did not have enough of the elite seasons to build that peak case. Add in the way he benefitted from his environment and I reluctantly vote against Walker.

Just a hunch, Walker is my next version of Lee Smith with my vote annually changing.

Bernie Williams – NO – I discussed this earlier in the week, he comes up a bit short.

Tony Womack – NO – Apparently it is Mariano Rivera Conqueror week at the Hall with Womack’s 2001 double the key hit in that memorable Game Seven.

Eric Young – NO – I have to admit Young’s career is better than I realized with a 92 OPS+ nothing to sneeze at from a middle infielder, 465 steals and over 1,700 hits. In just seven post-season games he was magnificent with a 1.186 OPS.

So there it is, my 2011 ballot;

Jeff Bagwell

Barry Larkin

Edgar Martinez

Mark McGwire

Dale Murphy

Rafael Palmeiro

Tim Raines

Lee Smith

Alan Trammell

Hall of Fame Week - The Ballot (Part One)

2012-01-06T06:11:00.003-05:00

Well, we have looked at some of the current players making a case and I got in depth on Bernie Williams. Now what you have all been waiting for, my mythical Hall of Fame ballot. The first fourteen alphabetically now, the second thirteen later;

Jeff Bagwell – YES – This is an absolute no brainer to me. His career OPS+ is 34^th all time and while best known as the great hitter he was he was also a solid defender and a fine base runner with 202 stolen bases.

Jeromy Burnitz – NO – Burnitz is well short of the line in terms of peak, longevity and perception. I always try to find at least one argument for a player for induction but in Burnitz’ case I cannot see it.

Vinny Castilla – NO – I have talked at length in this series about the bias against third basemen but Castilla just is not there. A sub-100 OPS+ is not sufficient.

Juan Gonzalez – NO – Gonzalez is a bit of a tricky case for me. He has a lot of peak value and was well-regarded in his day with two MVPs to his credit. While he may have deserved neither I think that speaks to how he was viewed. Ultimately his career was too short. Had he been able to eek out a couple more seasons his peak would likely have pushed him in.

Brian Jordan – NO – If the ballot needs a cornerback for a flag football game they have one. At his best his great speed made him an impact defender and a player capable of performances that exceed perception. He had too few years like that though.

Barry Larkin – YES – Larkin is hurt by his health record. Only once in his career (1998-1999) did he have successive seasons with over 135 games played. That is a bit of a disservice though as he played 110 of 112 games in 1994 and 131 of 144 games in 1995. His career mark of 9,057 PA is sufficient and this was a quality defender at a key position who also had a great bat. To put him into perspective;

Derek Jeter – 117 OPS+

Barry Larkin – 116 OPS+

Jeter has an edge in playing time but Larkin was every bit the player Jeter was and a superior defender.

Javy Lopez – NO – As catchers go Lopez’ performance on the offensive side deserves recognition. His career OPS+ of 112 is a bit light, but not dramatically so. Unfortunately Lopez added very little defensively and even at the position where the playing time norms are lowest, he comes up short with just 1,503 career games.

Edgar Martinez – YES – I dug into Edgar last year at this time and found that his numbers are sufficient. The short version of that longer piece is that for me a DH has to be better than any hitter I would not vote for and Edgar does indeed meet that harsh criteria.

Don Mattingly – NO – Donnie Baseball was well on his way in the mid-80s when injuries slowed him down. From 1984 to 1989 he was a Hall of Famer but he just did not put enough around it to get in in my mind. He is closer of being worthy than he is often given credit for but does not get there.

Fred McGriff – NO – Last year I gave him a yes vote but this year I (as predicted last year) have flip-flopped. McGriff was a great player but as great as some of his numbers were, I think he is similar to Bernie Williams in lacking that peak.

Mark McGwire – YES – The idea that McGwire is a product of just his home runs is ridiculous. McGwire was a fine defensive player in his youth, not great but solid and his .394 OBP is better than Hall of Famers like Rod Carew (.393), Tony Gwynn (.388) and just behind Richie Ashburn (.396). Take any of those players and give them 583 home runs and it really is an easy call, is it not?

The PED issue is one for the voters to decide for themselves but any idea that McGwire is just a “slugger” is foolish. Even if you discount some homers, would those players I mentioned above be Hall of Famers with 550 homers? 500? 450? Of course. So too is McGwire.

Jack Morris – NO – Morris’ overall numbers are clearly short of the Hall. This leaves him with three arguments; that he “pitched to the score,” that he was better than he appeared as shown by the way he was viewed in his era and his post-season greatness;

Pitched to the Score - Joe Sheehan debunked this rather conclusively almost a decade ago.

Appreciated in his era – Morris was not overwhelmingly supported for Cy Young Awards in his career. He is 73^rd in Cy Young Shares with only Don Drysdale, Bert Blyleven, Don Sutton and Phil Niekro behind him among starters in the Hall (not counting those who did not play in the Cy Young Award era).

Post-season greatness – Presented without comment;

Jack Morris – 3.80 post-season ERA

Bert Blyleven – 2.47

Derek Lowe – 3.21

Bob Stanley – 2.77

Bill Mueller – NO – Mueller was never the star that one needs to be for induction and his career with less than 5,000 PA was far too short. On the other hand, if I had a vote to give I’d probably slip him one because…well, you know.

Terry Mulholland – NO – Mulholland turned in a fine career for himself though his post-season record makes Jack Morris look like Cristy Mathewson. Still, nothing wrong with what Mulholland did and he had a great pickoff move which I always like.

Hall of Fame Week - Bernie Williams

2012-01-05T06:10:00.000-05:00

One of the most interesting candidates on this year’s ballot is also the only Grammy nominated artist on the ballot; Bernabe (Figueroa) Williams.

He intrigues me for a couple of reasons. First, his all around game was truly outstanding yet he seemed to be overshadowed by teammates in the public eye. He was arguably the best player on those late-90s teams but it was Derek Jeter who gained the lion’s share of the public and media love.

The other issue is that as writers are releasing their balloT. Williams seems to be getting a much lower percentage than I anticipated. It appears that he has zero chance of getting in and in fact has a reasonable chance of falling off the ballot in one year.

That stuns me. I really thought Williams was going to get 25-30% of the vote and hang around for awhile. I have always been unsure what to make of Bernie but that was my perception. With that in mind I wanted to look at his career.

Offense – Offensively Bernie Williams was a quiet assassin. His OPS+ of 125 is 21^st among centerfielders with at least 750 career games and it is an OBP heavy number with his .381 OBP being tenth. Baseball Reference puts his batting runs at 12^th all time among that group.

One thing Williams did somewhat poorly on offense was steal bases. His long loping strides seemed to get in the way of the explosive start a great base stealer needs creating a fairly unimpressive 63% success rate.

Offensively Bernie Williams clearly warrants consideration.

Defense – This is where the Bernie Williams argument gets interesting. In his heyday he was generally considered an elite defender with four consecutive Gold Gloves to his credit. Advanced metrics came into vogue late in his career and judged him harshly.

When I watched Williams defensively I thought of him as similar in style to Devon White. Like White, Williams was a fluid player who seemed to move without effort. This meant that the spectacular diving catch (think Jim Edmonds) that you talked about for days was not really part of his arsenal. Instead, he seemed to glide to the spot and casually reach up and grab it. This does not mean he was a poor defender but that he did not leave you mouth agape after a great grab.

His arm was horrible, even at his peak.

Williams is a player who I have a tough time judging defensively. The numbers simply do not match up with my recollection and his late career struggles (he had no business in center his last few years) make for a difficult understanding of why my recollection is different.

I think the defensive side of things hurts Williams’ case.

Longevity – Williams has a lengthy career. There are 18 players in the Hall plus one on the ballot (Dale Murphy) besides Williams who were predominately centerfielders. With 2,076 games Williams is 12^th out of the 19.

Except…

One of the interesting aspects of the era we are now in is that players can play a LOT of post-season games. Historically the post-season has not been a part of the Hall of Fame discussion because even a player who was a regular in the post-season played very few games relative to his career (Yogi Berra is the pre-playoff era leader with 75 games, Reggie Jackson with 77 is the pre-Wild Card era leader).

When you add Williams’ 121 post-season games to his marker, and make similar adjustments to those around him he leaps to 9^th all time. That is not a huge difference but it highlights how well his longevity fits in among the elite centerfielders.

Peak – As you may or may not realize, I consider peak value very strongly when I look at the Hall. In my opinion a Hall of Famer needs to be truly elite at some stage of his career to warrant entry. Certainly one can accumulate ultimately overwhelming numbers but generally I’d rather see a short career with a great peak than a non-peak accumulator.

It is here that Bernie Williams comes up a bit short.

Williams’ best single season WAR is 6.1 and while that is a fine season it does not measure up to other centerfielders. Of the 18 current centerfielders in the Hall (min. 750 games at the position) only Max Carey and Lloyd Waner (both weak Veterans Committee selections) were unable to have a season that eclipsed that mark by at least half a win.

Bernie Williams was a very good player and arguably a great one at times, but at his best he was not a standout player. In fairness, this type of analysis is hurt by the debatable defensive measurements.

Conclusion

So the question at hand is; is Bernie Williams a Hall of Famer.

I have literally written this section a couple of times and my answer for now is a reluctant no.

He was an elite offensive player who had a career of such length and accomplishment to fit in well with others at his position. His defense gives me pause, considerably so, but I am not convinced that the numbers are a fair reflection of how weak his defense was.

Where Williams comes up short in my mind is peak value. To me a Hall of Famer needs to be a truly elite player at some point in his career and I feel like Williams comes up short.

I noted last year that I felt that fans and media were becoming harsher on who was a Hall of Famer. Williams is precisely the type of player that I feel is being undervalued. His all around game and contributions to a great championship team I think are a fair argument for his induction.

As noted earlier I prefer peak value and Williams does not measure up for me. Right now I cast my mythical ballot with a “NO” next to Bernie Williams’ name.

Hall of Fame Week - Current NL Players

2012-01-04T06:07:00.000-05:00

Yesterday we had our look at the American League so that leaves, yes, yes, I see it, the National League!!!

To reiterate I feel there are three categories for players;

- Yes – Players who are in

- No – Players who are not in and are either not likely to get in or still need to do some significant work

- Not Yet – Players who are not in but are likely to get in

I am giving players credit ONLY for what they have accomplished so far, NOT for what they will accomplish. For example, Robinson Cano is a “Not Yet” because while he’s well on his way, the sum total of his accomplishments so far is not sufficient to warrant election. We will give at least one player from each team.

Note I also am content to ignore the PED issue. For me it is a non-factor due to a variety of reasons not the least of which is the tacit approval of Major League Baseball.

On with the show;

Ryan Howard – NO – Wherever you come down on Howard I think the injury that looks like it will cost him a sizable portion of the 2012 season is going to be a big hit on his chances. Howard is going to lose a potential big year at age 32 on a team where he is likely to be a playoff contender for the next couple of years but then may fade quickly.

Chase Utley – NO – Utley continues to age in a manner similar to Kevin Youkilis. He has missed 104 games the last two years, most to injury, and is going to have a difficult time putting together the kind of career numbers he would need.

Roy Halladay – YES – I think he is in already on peak value. He is an incredibly durable pitcher who should be expected to finish with very strong numbers.

Cliff Lee – NO – Lee gets hurt a bit in perception for having a couple of split seasons on his record. It shouldn’t matter but I think having two peak seasons where you play for multiple seasons takes away some narrative. As a more practical matter I am skeptical that Lee can maintain his value long enough.

Cole Hamels – NOT YET – Hamels just keeps churning out these outstanding seasons but somewhere along the lines you’d love to see an 18-20 win season that thrusts him into the middle of a Cy Young ballot. He is hurt similar to John Smoltz with the mid-90s Braves by being worse than his teammates which obscures how great he is.

Roy Oswalt – NO – Oswalt is a fine pitcher and if I had confidence that he would go for another 4-5 seasons I’d call this a “not yet.” Health and some of his comments over the years leave me skeptical that he is desirous of that. Mike Mussina always struck me the same way and he kept at it long enough to build his case.

Brian McCann – NOT YET – McCann is helped greatly by the injuries to Joe Mauer and the slow development of Matt Wieters. When we look back at his career he is going to have a little run of being the best catcher in baseball and that will help. He got started at a young age so he should be able to have some very impressive totals for a backstop.

Dan Uggla – NO – I don’t think Uggla has a chance in hell but his numbers compare quite nicely at the same age to Jeff Kent who remained at a high level for many seasons. If Uggla can age like Kent he has a puncher’s chance.

Chipper Jones – YES – I think he will have a Jeff Bagwell like experience with a shockingly low vote total in year one before getting in but he deserves it without question in my view.

Tim Hudson – NOT YET – Hudson is aging very very well. After missing most of 2009 with injuries he has bounced back to win 33 games with an ERA+ of 128 the last two seasons. What will hurt him in the conventional view is that he lacks that “moment.” He doesn’t have a post-season series or a Cy Young season that makes you say “there’s the definitive Tim Hudson moment.”

Ryan Zimmerman – NO – Zimmerman has a tough path. Third basemen are notoriously underappreciated and Zimmerman plays in a pitchers’ park depressing his conventional numbers. At just 27 this coming season and with 947 hits already he has the time to build a case.

Ivan Rodriguez – YES – He is a gimme.

Jose Reyes – NO – Reyes added an elite season to his resume which is a positive. In a bit of an oddity I believe the move from New York to Miami will result in more, not less coverage with the contract and the potential issues involving Hanley Ramirez. People will be watching. I am skeptical that he will stay healthy.

And now for stupid things that I wrote last year at this time (with emphasis added);

Johan Santana – NOT YET – “It should be just a matter of filling in the career numbers for Johan but he’s only at 133 wins. Not as fragile as he appears, he has made 54 starts the last two years so it’s not like he’s Bret Saberhagen or anything”.

Ugh. Anyway, lost 2011, how will he bounce back? I don’t think his peak is enough right now and I fear he may not get there.

Hanley Ramirez – NO – Another stupid comment, this from my piece two years ago;

“Clearly storming full speed ahead. Nomar Garciaparra is of course the cautionary tale but there is no reason to expect a decline.”

Well, he has declined badly since then and very publicly been told by his team “you aren’t that good defensively.” He needs to turn his career around fairly soon. He risks being his generation’s Dick Allen at best (attitude overshadowing greatness) or Juan Gonzalez at worst (attitude declining and performance following suit).

Prince Fielder – NOT YET – Fielder added a true MVP-caliber season to a growing resume. Despite valid concerns about his weight Fielder has been quite durable with 157 games in his rookie year a career low. Even if he ages poorly that may get him over 2,500 games by his mid-30s.

Ryan Braun – NOT YET – Like his husky teammate Braun is quite durable though it looks like he is going to have a little vacation to start the 2012 season. Durability is a bit benefit to a player because it allows him to put up the kind of numbers that draw a voter’s eyes.

Zack Greinke – NO – Since his outrageous 2009 season Greinke has been rather ordinary for two years. The ERA+ of 100 and 102 suggests that we have seen the best of Zack Greinke. Even acknowledging 2009 as his best, if 2008 turns out to be his second best season he will not put up a Hall of Fame career.

Yadier Molina – NO – Catchers are a tricky bunch. Molina’s rep as a great defensive catcher is well earned and he has elevated his game offensively in recent years as well. His last three years he has had OPS+ of 100, 84 and 126. If he stays at the 126 he will coast to the Hall, if he drops to 84 he is his generation’s Bob Boone and coming up short, if 100 is the level he has a shot.

Albert Pujols – YES – I was disappointed to see him leave St. Louis and frightened to see him in the American League. He is in even if he Kendrys Moraleses himself on Opening Day.

Matt Holliday – NOT YET – Quietly remaining at a superstar level. It may be interesting to see how he is pitched without Pujols in the lineup. In 2011 only Ryan Braun (2), Mike Napoli (2), Jacoby Ellsbury (1), and Curtis Granderson (0) had fewer intentional passes than Holliday’s 4 among players with an OPS over .900. Napoli and Ellsbury probably lacked the respect around the league while Braun (Fielder) and Granderson (Teixeira/Rodriguez) had some protection.

Joey Votto – NOT YET – Votto remains one of the game’s elite players.

Brandon Phillips – NO – Phillips is an interesting one. He is a fine defender and at age 30 stepped up his offense. Additionally he probably gets some good will from little things he does in the community.

Scott Rolen – YES – To me Rolen is a no brainer. The third baseman bias hurts but Ron Santo’s induction probably helps as Rolen compares rather well to the former Cub.

Andrew McCutchen – NO – McCutchen is a long way from the Hall but if he gets there his early start should help him. Through three MLB seasons he has an OPS+ of 123 and looks not unlike Ellis Burks who was probably cut short by injury.

Geovany Soto – NO – Soto is a gifted player who at age 29 has still not been able to remain a consistently high end performer. Four full years into his big league career his OPS+ has gone; 118, 80, 135, 96. If he could keep those down years from happening he’s be a Hall talent.

Aramis Ramirez – NO – Third basemen get no love and Ramirez certainly is not causing a drum beat in his favor. On the other hand he has a legitimate shot at 400 homers, something only six third basemen (Minimum 750 games at the position) have achieved. Five of the six are in or will be in with Darrell Evans the outsider.

Hunter Pence – NO – Yeah I’m cheating a bit but cut a guy some slack, the Astros suck. Pence is a fine player but ultimately is just below the line. As a practical matter his all around skill set is less exciting than a big basher or speed demon.

Justin Upton – NOT YET – This tremendous talent has that MVP caliber season on the resume after his outstanding 2011 season. I wonder if Upton might be one of those players who peaks at a young age for some reason. 20 of the 36 players with 2,400 PA by age 23 have gone on to make the Hall (assuming a few active players get in) and not counting Adrian Beltre who has a shot.

Carlos Beltran – YES – I think Beltran is going to have a tough time but he deserves to go. His “generalist” approach to the game and understated style leave him a bit unappreciated but he is a great talent who has lived up to that billing. He is more durable than a glance at his BBRef page suggests with both 2004 and 2011 being healthy years broken up by trade.

Matt Cain – NO – Cain feels a bit like Josh Beckett to me. He is a very good pitcher and capable of that all world season but not really a true elite in the class of guys like Felix, Halladay and his teammate Lincecum. His durability is of tremendous value with no fewer than 31 starts in his six MLB seasons.

Tim Lincecum – NOT YET – Compare Lincecum to fellow 2009 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. While Greinke has not been able to surround his 2009 season with notable seasons Lincecum has added several elite years to the resume. Health is the only concern here.

Matt Kemp – NO – A lot hinges on what the next act of Kemp’s career brings. To say he just needs to stay on his path I think credits him a bit too much as he was more “Very Good” than “Hall of Fame” in the first few years of his career. Does he return to that level or find a place between his otherworldly 2011 and that level.

Clayton Kershaw – NOT YET – At just 23 he has a looooong way to go but to dismiss his exceptional performance so far is unfair. The dramatic control improvement of 2011 speaks to a young star willing to work at his craft and better himself.

Todd Helton – NOT YET – I am not there yet on Helton. I think he deserves a much deeper consideration than this process will allow me the time to do. His peak is there but I feel like he needs more of a career but I am not sold on that.

Troy Tulowitzki – NOT YET – I love love love LOVE Troy Tulowitzki. He is the all around player that people think Derek Jeter was in his prime. He lacks stolen base speed and it will be interesting to see if that impacts his ability to stay at shortstop as he ages.

Mat Latos – NO – The newest Redleg is off to a solid start to his career.

The National League adds five “Yes” votes and thirteen “NOT YET” votes. This gives us a combined total of eleven players in the Hall today and 34 “NOT YETs.” That coincidentally puts us at exactly 1.5 Hall of Famers per team which matches up nicely with the historical averages.

I feel like I may have judged the NL players more harshly than the AL players for some reason with some “NO” players probably deserving of a “NOT YET” designation.

Hall of Fame Week - Current AL Players

2012-01-03T10:36:00.002-05:00

So looking at current players and their chances of making the Hall of Fame I feel there are three categories for players;

- Yes – Players who are in

- No – Players who are not in and are either not likely to get in or still need to do some significant work

- Not Yet – Players who are not in but are likely to get in

Note I also am content to ignore the PED issue. For me it is a non-factor due to a variety of reasons not the least of which is the tacit approval of Major League Baseball.

On with the show;

Mark Teixeira – NO – The slugging first baseman has had two consecutive seasons below Hall caliber. For a guy who is going to be 32 this coming season this is a trend headed in the wrong direction.

Robinson Cano – NOT YET – Cano continues to move to the Hall. His defense is much improved taking away that impediment. I think the only risk to Cano is a move off second base and the defensive advancements he has made should avoid that.

Derek Jeter – YES – Say what you want this is an easy pick. Jeter is sixth all time in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among shortstops with at least 500 games at the position despite being dead last in defensive runs (by a lot). Even if you subscribe to the belief that his defense is truly awful (and I do) his offense, durability and longevity have more than accounted for that.

Alex Rodriguez – YES – There are few selections that are this easy. Not just a Hall of Famer, but a true inner circle guy. Had he stayed at shortstop he was fashioning a top ten MLB career.

Jorge Posada – NO – I wrote a year ago “(o)n a good day I can see the argument for Posada getting in, on others I reject the argument. It’s odd but the chances of this catcher going to the Hall realistically hinge on him having 2-3 good years as a DH.” Year one as a DH did not work out so well and it looks like his career value is going to leave him short.

Andruw Jones – NOT YET – Jones is closer in my mind than perhaps you might think. In a lot of ways Jones I think is viewed as a disappointment but he should be noted for what he did accomplish, not what he has not. He is over 400 homers, he has ten Gold Gloves and he has four separate seasons with a WAR of 7.0 or higher. Frankly, I think a strong case could be made for a “YES” vote right now and this new act of his career is giving him a real shot at some truly elite numbers.

C.C. Sabathia – NOT YET – He is a lot closer than you might realize. I think by the time CC is done we will see 200 wins not as a standard for entry, but as the point where candidacy is seriously considered (that is true only for the elite peak right now). At 176 wins and back in the Bronx for a half decade Sabathia is going to wind up closer to 300 than 200.

Mariano Rivera – YES – “The best ever” talk is a bit silly because of the newness of his position but that does not change his accomplishments. Obviously he is the best of the closers and has set the bar extraordinarily high.

Evan Longoria – NOT YET – Longoria added some “story” to his accomplishments with his incredible final day of the season heroics. That line drive homer to send the Rays to the playoffs is the sort of iconic image we will see on the big screen in Cooperstown someday.

Johnny Damon – NOT YET – Damon’s chances really hinge on 3,000 hits. With them he’s a borderline candidate at best, without them he has no shot but he continues to be incredibly healthy and productive.

David Price – NO – The young lefty took a bit of a step back after a dominant 2010 season. He is capable of being elite but has not produced that consistently yet.

Adrian Gonzalez – NOT YET – 2011 was another in what has become a metronomically great career. Moving from the outpost of MLB to one of the big markets certainly cannot hurt from an attention standpoint.

Dustin Pedroia – NOT YET – Like his counterpart in the Bronx he keeps moving forward. His return to full health is a definite positive.

Kevin Youkilis – NO – Long time readers know how much I love Youk but he was going to be an all peak candidate and two injury plagued seasons in a row in his early-30s sabotage any hopes he had.

Carl Crawford – NO – I would not be shocked to see Crawford rebound but at the same time I cannot recall a star player looking so inept for such a lengthy period of time. It was not just that he swung like a rusty gate it was that he seemed to be completely confused defensively and on the bases he was tentative. He looked like a completely different player.

Jacoby Ellsbury – NO – Helped himself immensely by having the kind of elite season that “pops” on a resume. If the power remains part of his game he elevates to a new level of player.

David Ortiz – NOT YET – Shockingly to me Ortiz is still in the running here. DHs have a hell of a row to hoe but Papi has bought himself two more MLB seasons at least. He should eclipse 400 home runs this year and if he can post three more seasons as a regular 450 with 1500 RBI is a real possibility for a guy who has the “narrative” to help.

Josh Beckett – NOT YET – The off field stuff hurts a lot but to have such a great year (2.89 ERA) and only win 13 games hurts the perceptions too. Still, if he can stay healthy he can get there.

Jon Lester – NOT YET – If he just keeps out churning seasons like he has he has a shot. Somewhere along the line a season like Beckett’s 2007 season or a big post-season (2008 could have been it but Matt Garza outdueled him) would help.

Jonathan Papelbon – NOT YET – Papelbon had the kind of rebound season he needed. Going to Philly is an interesting move because for the next couple of years the post-season that is such a big part of a closer’s case will be accessible, but can the Phils maintain it with their aging core?

Terry Francona – NOT YET – The way he lost the clubhouse amidst the collapse hurts…a lot. At the same time he remains well respected it seems and should get another shot. If he can, and if he can win a third World Series title he is home free. The resume is a little thin now though even with two WS titles.

Jose Bautista – NOT YET – Bautista’s rise to superduperstardom came late (age 29) so if he goes he is likely going as a peak candidate. Duplicating 2010 was a nice start, he needs to, ummm…triplicate(?) that in 2012.

Vladimir Guerrero – YES – It is my opinion that Guerrero is in now. He was one of the game’s elite players for several seasons and has bolstered his candidacy with a solid decline phase.

Miguel Cabrera – NOT YET – As close to a lock as you can be at age 28 with nine seasons under your belt. I won’t say he’s in the moment he plays his first game of next season but he is awfully close.

Magglio Ordonez – NO – A second consecutive year of seriously missed time as he heads into his late-30s. I’ve always liked this guy but he is coming up short.

Victor Martinez – NO – Another player I like a lot but only Roger Bresnahan (954) has played fewer than 1,000 games at catcher and earned induction to the Hall. Martinez is at 853 right now and does not look likely to add to that total meaningfully in the coming years with the emergence of Alex Avila.

Justin Verlander – NOT YET – Now THAT is how you build a Hall of Fame case. Stay healthy Justin.

Grady Sizemore – NO – Sizemore needed a bounce back year, he still needs a bounce back year.

Paul Konerko – NOT YET – Konerko is a tough one. He does not really have the peak that a lot of voters (and imaginary voters like me) want to see but he is building a heck of a career case. Every year that goes by makes that 2003 season look more and more bizarre.

Juan Pierre – NO – I think he has no shot even with 3,000 hits but if he gets there he at least gets talked about. He needs 980 more so it ain’t imminent but if he keeps churning out 178 hit seasons he’ll get mentioned.

Adam Dunn – NO – Not just the horrendous season but the move to DH hurts too. It validates people’s thinking that he is a DH.

Mark Buehrle – NOT YET – It is going to be odd to see him in a uniform other than a White Sox uni next year. Like his long time teammate Konerko he is a career, not a peak candidate.

Joakim Soria – NO – Soria was looking like a guy who could have long career as a closer but last year was a bit rough.

Justin Morneau – NO – Losing the better part of a season in the middle of your prime is an absolute Hall-killer.

Joe Mauer – NOT YET – The missed time hurts him too but he has more of a peak to stand behind than Morneau. Where Morneau needs to keep building a case, Mauer has one to augment. It’s a subtle but important difference.

Jim Thome – YES – As well respected as they come Thome is well over the line in my opinion.

Michael Young – NO – He had the year he had to have to take a big step forward. I still don’t like him as a candidate but he is over 2,000 hits and is in striking distance of 200 home runs. Some poor early seasons drag his career rate stats down so any sort of decline phase is going to bring that OPS+ (now at 106) down to a level that just won’t get it done.

Ian Kinsler – NOT YET – Kinsler is a wonderful player but injuries have robbed him of almost a season’s worth of games in his 20s. Second basemen typically do not age well. The conventional wisdom is that a shortstop who slows down can shift to second base, a second baseman who slows down has nowhere to move. Kinsler will have to defy conventional wisdom as he enters his 30s.

Adrian Beltre – NOT YET – The one hit wonder with the Sox had a fine season again for Texas. Beltre produced on the big stage and looks to be aging well. Third basemen historically are underappreciated by the Hall (ask Ron Santo) but Beltre is building a great case.

Josh Hamilton – NO – Like Bautista Hamilton is likely to need to build his case heavily on his peak and missing time every year as he seems to do is not going to do that any favors.

Torii Hunter – NO – Not enough peak for my taste but he is aging well. A centerfielder with eight Gold Gloves and decent offense deserves to be at least considered. Thought exercise that just jumped into my head, would you rather have Hunter or Bernie Williams? Off the cuff I don’t know the answer.

Bobby Abreu – NO – Vastly underrated for the bulk of his career I fear I am doing the same now.

Dan Haren – NOT YET – Gotta admit I love me a pitcher with over 100 wins through age 30. The Angels look to be gearing up for a run at contention for the coming years so Haren has a chance to build on that.

Jered Weaver – NOT YET – I like Weaver’s case a lot more than Haren’s. While Haren has been good Weaver was able to put up the sort of Cy Young caliber season that Haren has not yet in 2011. I also think he is simply the better pitcher of the two.

Hideki Matsui – NO – It looks like Matsui may have reached the end of the line in 2011 as a productive player.

Ichiro Suzuki – YES – Not the sort of slugger you usually see as a right fielder but he got on base, has been a great defender and while I feel he could have run more than he did he still has over 400 steals.

Felix Hernandez – NOT YET – The peak is pretty much there already, like Verlander he just has to stay healthy.

So there is your American League list. Six players are “YES” and 24 are “NOT YET.”

Hall of Fame Week - Preview

2012-01-03T05:30:00.001-05:00

With Hall of Fame inductions just over a week away it is time to kick off another “Hall of Fame Week” here at Freddy’s. If you are a regular reader of the site you know that this is a regular feature at this time every year and I love doing this stuff because I consider the Baseball Hall of Fame of the utmost importance.

Unlike other sports I think baseball fans truly cherish and understand what makes a Hall of Famer. Everyone’s exact definition may differ but we have our criteria and I think it matters. The Hall of Fame is never a meaningful discussion point in other sports but for baseball fans it is a year-round topic of discussion.

Personally I consider myself a “small Hall” kind of guy, if I may channel my inner-Johnnie Cochran for a moment “if there’s doubt, keep ‘em out!”

Regular readers know my criteria which I post at this time each year;

1. Longevity – Essentially, this is the numbers argument. You need to have the career numbers that are meaningful.

2. Greatness – Playing forever doesn’t get you in. If Juan Pierre plays until he’s 55 and gets 3,000 hits he still isn’t in. You have to have a time where you are an elite player.

3. The Potter Stewart Test – This is Bob Ryan’s theory but I like it. Stewart was the Supreme Court Justice who said he couldn’t define obscenity but “knew it when (he) saw it.” Hall of Famers are the same way, you know them when you see them. They have to have that “duende” that George Frazier spoke of. That swagger, that personality that just blew you away.

My feeling is that a player needs to meet two of the three criteria to get in and I will admit that I put a bit more emphasis on that third test than others do. I think one of the things that makes the Hall so important is that there are so many different opinions on what makes a player a Hall of Famer. The criteria are so delightfully vague as to allow true differences of opinion.

With that in mind here is the planned schedule for the next week;

Today – Current AL Players status

Wednesday – Current NL Players status

Wednesday Afternoon – An in depth look at the candidacy of Bernie Williams

Thursday – My hypothetical ballot - the newcomers
Friday - My hypothetical ballot - the returnees

Monday – A look at the inductees (if there are any)

I will get things rolling around noon today (and yes, astute readers will note that I simply did a cut and paste of this post from last year).

2012 Storylines

2012-01-02T12:05:00.000-05:00

With 2012 now in full swing and most of us back to work and school I thought I would take an early look at some big storylines for this coming year;

1. Is there a change in the balance of power?

The off-season has been dominated not by the Eastern elite but by the powers of the West. With their major signings (C.J. Wilson, Albert Pujols, Yu Darvish – maybe) augmenting already impressive rosters the Angels and Rangers have staked their claim as the top teams in the American League.

Add the Tampa Bay Rays to the mix and there is a real chance that not only could one of the Yankees and Red Sox miss the post-season, it is possible that neither team will make it.

2. What is the next act for Alex Rodriguez?

On the heels of a controversial procedure to repair his knee all eyes will be on Alex Rodriguez. With all the talk seeming to be “the Yankees are going to regret the A-Rod extension” the truth is that Rodriguez remains an elite player.

The question of course is going to be health. Rodriguez played just 99 games last year and has not eclipsed 140 games since 2007. If the procedure returns the 36 year old to sufficient health to play 135+ games then the Yankees will be quite satisfied.

3. Is a change in the offing for PED testing?

I think the Ryan Braun situation highlights some very real concerns about the testing procedure. Once again MLB has failed to keep a “confidential” positive test out of the public eye. If rumors of an embarrassing illness are true then this is one more strike in my mind against MLB’s testing policy.

I have no problem with MLB and MLBPA collectively bargaining the issue. This is probably a good thing. However, there should be genuine outrage at the reprehensible way that MLB has lived up to their end of the bargain on this. “Confidential” appears to be a suggestion rather than a direction and calls the integrity of MLB’s process into serious question.

4. Speaking of PEDs…

The simple fact is that the biggest story of the next 12 months and one week is going to be PEDs. With the Hall of Fame vote to be released a week from now the really interesting one is set for early 2013.

In December of 2012 we will start seeing articles written with BBWAA voters detailing their selections. While players like Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire were interesting, it will be the addition of Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds to the ballot that will be the most intriguing. If those two players are kept out of the Hall that will tell us a lot about how fiercely the BBWAA is choosing to enforce the “integrity” clause.

5. How do teams bounce back?

Rebounding from bitter defeat is going to be a big story in 2012. The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves both suffered soul-crushing collapses in 2011 and will be watched to see if they can return to contention.

At the same time the two-time AL Champion Texas Rangers were literally a few inches of Nelson Cruz’ outstretched glove from winning the World Series. Instead, they lost the most exciting World Series in twenty years and have to rebound better than the 1986 Red Sox did.

2011 in Review

2011-12-30T16:20:00.000-05:00

With the nightmarish way the season ended I never really did a look back at the positive moments of 2011. September will forever be in our memories in a bad way but the Sox took us to the final day of the season and won 90 games. You don’t do that without some exciting moments and here in chronological order are my choices for the ten best games of the year;

May 1 – Sox 3 – Mariners 2

Freddy's Take

Having dropped two in a row to the lowly M’s the Sox were staring at a sweep at the hands of Felix Hernandez. Carl Crawford, a hero just a few days before against Minnesota came through again.

May 2 – Sox 9 – Angels 5

Freddy’s Take

A taut pitchers’ duel went to the fifth with the score 2-1 LA. Dustin Pedroia battled through a dramatic 13 pitch at bat slamming pitch #13 from Jered Weaver right up the middle for a go ahead single in one of the season’s great moments.

May 16 – Sox 8 – Orioles 7

Freddy's Take

Down 6-0 early a positive road trip was being wiped out. The bats came alive and Adrian Gonzalez’ most memorable “wall ball” of the year won it.

May 26 – Sox 14 at Tigers 1

Freddy's Take

It was not so much this rain-shortened win but the fact that it came on the heels of a similar destruction the day before that made it so memorable. For the first time the vaunted Red Sox of pre-season prognostication felt like they had truly taken root.

June 4 – Sox 9 – Athletics 8 (14)

Freddy's Take

A nightmare 9^th turned a 7-3 lead into extra innings. The Sox forced Oakland to strand a go ahead run at third with less than two outs twice, overcame an 11^th inning RBI by Ryan Sweeney with one from Jacoby Ellsbury to extend the game then finally won it with J.D. Drew playing the hero.

June 9 – Sox 8 – Yankees 3

Freddy's Take

The ultimate house money win. Having won two in a row in the Bronx and facing Sabathia the Sox trailed 3-0 before a 7 run 7^th turned the tables and had the Sox and their fans feeling like their club owned the division.

July 17 – Sox 1 at Rays 0 (16)

Freddy's Take

Josh Beckett was brilliant but so too was Jeff Niemann. Neither side really threatened until the Sox broke through on Dustin Pedroia’s two out hit in the 16^th.

August 7 – Sox 3 – Yankees 2 (10)

Freddy's Take

To the extent that a “defining moment of Josh Reddick’s Red Sox career” exists his walk off hit against the Yanks on Sunday night would be it. None of it would be possible without Marco Scutaro’s lead off double in the ninth to mount the comeback against Mariano Rivera.

September 16 – Sox 4 – Rays 3

Freddy's Take

With the conventional wisdom that even a single win in the four game series would seal the Wild Card (oops!) the Sox got it in a grinder at Fenway. Beckett battled and sent the Fenway faithful home truly happy.

September 25 – Sox 7 at Yankees 4 (14)

Freddy's Take

Needing a win to hold off the Rays with just four games left the Sox got it when MVP candidate Jacoby Ellsbury slammed a two out, three run homer in the 14^th in the Bronx.

The Forgotten Game

June 15 – Sox 3 at Rays 0

There is no Freddy's Take!

Rarely has genius gone so ignored. Josh Beckett absolutely dominated the Rays and in a really unusual circumstance did so fairly quickly (2 hours, 20 minutes). Of course most of us were focused on 17,000 square feet of frozen water in Vancouver that night and missed a truly brilliant effort from the big Texan.

The Losses

Sadly we have to take the bad to appreciate the good. Here are five crushing defeats (pre-September edition);

April 15 – Sox 6 – Blue Jays 7

Freddy's Take

The early season low point as the Sox dropped to an unthinkable 2-10. Fortunately, there would be moment worse than this all season…right?

May 4 – Sox 3 – Angels 5 (13)

Freddy's Take

In a season that saw more than its share of rain a long rainy night ended with Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first relief appearance and a valiant comeback ended with defeat.

May 21 – Sox 3 – Cubs 9

Freddy's Take

An 8^th inning lead was good, not having Daniel Bard was bad. Matt Albers did not get it done.

August 1 – Sox 6 – Indians 9

Freddy's Take

Tied at 5 in the 8^th the Sox felt good. Handing the ball to a Daniel Bard who had not allowed a run since May felt great. Oops.

August 20 – Sox 4 at Royals 9

Tim Wakefield’s quest to win #200 was looking good but Terry Francona asked a bit too much out of the veteran.

The Plan In Review

2011-12-29T16:16:00.002-05:00

With Wednesday’s trade it is likely that the Sox are close to done with their off-season maneuverings. Another pitcher is possible (Roy Oswalt? Hiroki Kuroda? Sidd Finch?) but the Sox have probably done the heavy lifting this off-season.

With that in mind and the turn from 2011 to 2012 less than 32 hours away I figured I would close the book on 2011. To do this I wanted to look at where the Sox stand relative to "The Plan" I outlined back in October.

Below are the action points as well as a brief comment that I found relevant;

1. Resolve the General Manager and Manager situations

Comment - What I do not want to see is a Bobby Valentine type (or y'know, Bobby Valentine himself). This team I think needs a strong leader but one who is strong enough and confident enough to defer credit and publicity.

Heh.

So I have admittedly come around a bit on Valentine but I am still uncomfortable. The reality is that Valentine has put the Sox “all in” on 2012. The Sox won 90 games last year, I think either Valentine’s tactical acumen pushes them over the top and they win 95+ or his acerbic nature demolishes the clubhouse and 85 wins is the result.

Of note is that the Sox got the GM thing done quickly and while the managerial move took time, it got done and did not seem to hinder any moves. The moves that Cherington has made (adding Punto, Sweeney, Melancon and Bailey) seem to play into a tactician as manager suggesting an organizational philosophy taking hold.

2. Get a 200 inning starting pitcher

Look, the John Smoltzes and Brad Pennys of the world are great gambles, but the Sox need certainty.

The Sox are not there yet. It is clear that they are leaning towards at least one of Alfredo Aceves or Daniel Bard in the rotation but neither guy should be considered as likely to reach 200 innings. I think another move is still in the offing but right now they have not reached this crucial goal.

3. Re-sign Jonathan Papelbon and bolster the bullpen

The Sox should hope but not expect that Bobby Jenks returns, look to sign at least one if not two relievers (one external and bring back Wheeler is my vote) and look to promote from within if possible.

The Sox have added two relievers in Mark Melancon and Andrew Bailey but also are taking potentially three key relievers out of the mix (Aceves, Bard and Papelbon). Reports are that Franklin Morales is throwing lights out down in winter ball and he could be a difference maker.

4. Pick up Marco Scutaro's option

One more year of Scutaro's steady if unspectacular style are fine for this team while the Sox wait to see if Lowrie or Iglesias can find their way.

It is always nice when the Sox agree with me. I think the addition of Nick Punto is a nice fit with his slick glove.

5. Either re-sign David Ortiz or land a third baseman

To assume that any player can step into that role and succeed is erroneous. For that reason I think the Sox would be well-served if they could bring Ortiz back on a two year deal

See above. This may not be quite how Ortiz wanted this to all play out but he is going to return to a city where he is beloved and have the motivation of a lot of teams saying “yeah, but…” about him in the FA market.

6. Augment the bench

With a likely combination of Kevin Youkilis and Marco Scutaro on the left side of the infield the Sox will need some reliable bench players.

As I noted earlier I like what the Sox have done here. I think Punto is a better fit for this team than Lowrie and Ryan Sweeney is a high-OBP, strong glove sort of outfielder that can be useful either in a platoon role or as a 4^th outfielder. He is not the ideal choice as a starting right fielder but a .340-.350 OBP with a quality glove out of the 8^th/9^th spot in the lineup is pretty useful.

7. Embrace youth

On the positional side I think the club needs to decide between Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish in right field and deal the other one with the keeper being the starter in right field… I like Junichi Tazawa as a fifth starter and I think Felix Doubront can perform either as a reliever or a starter depending on need.

I think the Sox have moved in this direction nicely. Reddick has obviously been shipped out and I think the pitching staff is structured in a way that guys like Tazawa, Doubront and Bowden can expect to have chances to contribute.

8. Say goodbye to Wakefield and Varitek

The Sox would do well to land a Matt Treanor type as insurance in case one or both flops.

This is clearly the case. There is probably still a window open a crack for Wake on this pitching staff but I think Varitek’s time is done. Kelly Shoppach is precisely the sort of player I was hoping to see the Sox land to augment Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway.

9. Tell John Lackey he is entitled to a paycheck, not a spot in the rotation

This stopped being an issue when Lackey’s arm was peeled open by surgeons ending his 2012 season.

Generally I think the Sox are still lighter in the pitching staff than they need to be. I think they need innings out there and whether those innings come from Oswalt or someone more pedestrian (Joe Saunders?) they have to get them. I would also like another reliever but the good news is that the players they need are the types of players typically available at this time of year.

Maybe it’s just the natural optimism of turning the calendar over but events of the last couple of weeks have me feeling that the Sox are ready to be contenders again.

Sox Acquire Andrew Bailey for Josh Reddick

2011-12-28T17:10:00.000-05:00

According to Buster Olney (via Twitter and MLB Trade Rumors) the Red Sox have acquired reliever Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney for right fielder Josh Reddick, minor leaguers Miles Head and Raul Alcantara. My assumption is that the Sox would have to include another prospect in the deal but probably not anyone of note so for now I will proceed on the assumption of a straight swap.

Oakland gets – Reddick is a potentially excellent, potentially horrible pickup for Oakland. Let’s talk about Reddick for you Oakland fans who are not familiar with him. He is a line drive power hitter who could become a 25 home run guy in a perfect world. Defensively he is solid with a rocket for an arm though a misplay in right was one of the defining moments of the Sox’ collapse last year.

Reddick also features good speed though he is not really a base stealer.

The risk with Reddick is his plate discipline. He improved this dramatically last year and if that improvement is real, this could be an excellent pickup. If he regresses, and going to the K palace that is Oakland Coliseum that is a risk, he will be overmatched.

Personally I am skeptical on Reddick and after a fast start in the Majors last year he slumped in the second half.

Miles Head is a nice little lottery ticket. The 20 year old 1^st baseman abused A ball last year (1.022 OPS) and was not overmatched at Hi A Salem.

I do not really have much to add about Alcantara. The gang at Sox Prospects can tell you more.

Boston gets – Well Boston gets all kinds of stuff. I absolutely love Andrew Bailey so I am fired up about this. Bailey is a strike throwing machine who can notch the strikeout here and there. As a Closer™ his 75 out of 84 (89%) save rate is quite good. The concern with Bailey is health as he has pitched less than 50 innings in two of his three MLB seasons.

Bailey is under club control through the 2014 season.

Sweeney probably is not a starting caliber right fielder but while he lacks power he is very good at getting on base. The drawback is he hits lefty so he is kind of a bad fit as the fourth outfielder on this team. I wonder if the Sox might flip him for a righty version of himself.

There are dominoes here that cannot be ignored. The most obvious is that this probably means that Daniel Bard is truly slated for the rotation. I am wary of this and frankly if I were the Sox I would not put it set in stone. A bullpen with Mark Melancon-Bard-Bailey in some order would be a potent weapon indeed. With Alfredo Aceves in the rotation the Sox could be better suited to piece together that fifth rotation spot.

The other aspect of this is that Ryan Kalish just became a starting right fielder. Sweeney is not the worst fall back option (a career .342 OBP is valuable, even without power) but Kalish has to be considered the guy. If he comes back healthy he could be an exciting player to watch grow.

Conclusion

I think the Red Sox have done well here. At worst that bullpen looks considerably better than it did a few moments ago. Reddick may become very good but I like that the Sox have elected to make a firm decision about who they want in right field (Ryan Kalish) and rather than hanging onto Reddick as insurance have moved him for a more useful piece.

I am not so keen on this from Oakland’s perspective. I really question whether Reddick is well suited to Oakland. His swing gets awfully long and while has power, he is not a monster slugger who will make that ballpark play smaller.

Free Agents Still on the Board

2011-12-28T10:40:00.000-05:00

I touched on a few of the notable January transactions from recent years in yesterday’s piece. Today I want to look at a few of the big name free agents (or semi-big name) that remain on the market.

Prince Fielder – 1B - #1 ranked Free Agent on Keith Law’s “Top 50 Free Agents”

Fielder is the biggest FA out there in more ways than one. Fielder is represented by the ultra-aggressive Scott Boras and while Boras gets heat from many sources he is often quite successful. There is no particular reason for Fielder to rush into a deal today. Sitting back and trying to land the 9-10 year mega-deal is a wise choice. If January 25^th rolls around and he is still unsigned all he needs to do is drop his demands to 6-7 years. If he does that he will be a free agent for about ten minutes.

Random Guess – Chicago Cubs

Edwin Jackson – RHP - #11

Another Boras client Jackson has been the invisible man of this free agent class. Despite his success over the years he is generating virtually nothing in the way of rumors. I think there are a few reasons for this;

1. Boras’ is reportedly using the John Danks extension as a model for Jackson. You have to really squint to see the two as comparable but that’s what Boras is aiming for. While I don’t think Jackson is getting that kind of deal if aiming high results in a 4 year, $48 million deal then Boras has done well.

2. Jackson has never really been in one place for awhile. Just 27 years old he has pitched for six MLB teams already. I think teams see that kind of bouncing around and ask “why?”

3. Perceptions are formed early and I think Jackson’s early career struggles, particularly with control, have teams wary. He was flat out horrible with the Dodgers from ages 19-21 and his first two years in Tampa. He has become a much better pitcher in recent years with his control improving dramatically.

Random Guess – Miami Marlins

Hiroki Kuroda – RHP - #13

I referenced him yesterday. I think that right now Kuroda has offers and is simply weighing the pluses and minuses of playing on the West Coast versus a big bag of cash. Kuroda is a good pitcher but;

a. he is going to be 37 in 2012

b. the idea of signing someone who is not fully invested in the move is frightening

Random Guess – Los Angeles Dodgers

Ryan Madson – RHP - #16

The hard throwing reliever was supposedly signed to an extension by Philadelphia almost before the champagne had dried in the St. Louis clubhouse. Exactly what happened there is not, and likely will never be, clear but the end result is Jonathan Papelbon is a Phillie and Madson is floating around the ether. Other than a disastrous 2006 (which was largely a function of poor performance as a starter) Madson has been that rare beast, the consistently successful reliever. He is not as good as Papelbon of course but that consistency should make him more appealing than just his numbers would suggest (though his numbers are quite good).

Random Guess – Boston Red Sox

Roy Oswalt – RHP - #22

Oswalt’s reputation does not seem to match up with just how good he has been in his career. He is just 34 years old this coming year and while he made just 23 starts last year it was the first time since 2003 that he had made fewer than 30 starts. If he is truly interested in just a one year deal I do not understand why teams are not banging down his door.

Random Guess – Texas Rangers

Random Stuff

2011-12-27T16:08:00.000-05:00

After the Christmas break (hope Santa was good to you and yours) just a few random thoughts of no particular import;

- I am amused by the way ESPN puts up a “resume” for their analysts for various sports such as “12 year MLB player, won 2 World Series, career .310 batting average.” There is something about this that seems a bit desperate to me. I always feel like they are telling me; “the analysis you are about to hear is not going to be very good so we’re going to tell you why you should pay attention anyway.”

- I feel like the 2012 baseball season has the potential to be something memorable. The big spenders (Red Sox and Yankees of course) have holes you could drive a truck through and could both miss the playoffs and the only division I would feel confident in picking a winner is the AL Central.

With a little luck this will force the networks to start focusing more on things other than Boston/New York in their coverage. It should be a source of embarrassment for Fox and ESPN that MLB Network destroys them in this regard but I don’t think those organizations are capable of such introspection.

- The more I think about it the less I like the idea of a “mini-Fenway” as the Spring Training home. The differences are part of what makes Spring Training such a special experience. I want the sight of the Green Monster to be the sign of real baseball, not a hulking behemoth blocking my view of sunlight and palm trees and looming over pitchers jogging in the outfield.

- I spent Christmas in Miami and after the Patriots game they had the Dolphins post-game show. I always find it amusing to see what other cities versions of Scott Zolak or Jim Rice are as part of the team coverage. What does someone coming to Boston think when they hear “…and Jerry Remy” prior to a broadcast.

For those who care former offensive lineman Keith Sims and defensive lineman Kim Bokamper (who runs a wonderful sports bar down there) were chatting about the Dolphins. I’m told former wide receiver Jimmy Cefalo is a prominent broadcaster as well (Bokamper and Cefalo were two of my favorites as a kid).

- Depth depth and more depth. I feel like I learn something new everyday in life and one of the things that has been driven home in recent years is the importance of depth in sports. As much as we love to talk about the stars, it’s the guys at the bottom of a roster who often hold success or failure in their hands.

Just in 2011 the Boston Red Sox flopped dramatically for just that reason while a big reason the Boston Bruins succeeded was the way they went 20 deep on the roster with fourth liners and 5^th and 6^th defensemen playing key roles.

- While it feels like the off-season horse-trading is over January is often a big month. Just a quick look at some randomly selected January transactions;

2010 – Sox sign Adrian Beltre, Cardinals re-sign Matt Holliday.

2009 – Yankees sign Mark Teixeira

2008 – A’s trade Nick Swisher to Chicago for package including Gio Gonzalez, Orioles trade Erik Bedard to Seattle for package including Adam Jones

2006 – Padres trade Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka to Rangers for Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young, Indians trade Coco Crisp and others to Red Sox for Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach and Guillermo Mota (man, that’s a lot of flotsam and jetsam in a deal that was hotly debated at the time isn’t it?).

- What is up with Hiroki Kuroda? Every story I read basically says “the Sox and Yankees are interested” then something along the lines of “but Kuroda prefers to remain on the West Coast.” I kind of feel like at least one of these teams has a substantial offer out to Kuroda but he just really really does not want to take it but isn’t getting anything competitive elsewhere.